Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible. Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!
Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS MLB Condensed Slate Breakdowns
Get a quick feel here, but watch the date. APRIL 27 is up now…
MLB DFS Slate Quick Glance
10 games today, not the biggest slate to process. My issue is what to do with the 8pm and 9pm games? I know there will be mini-slates, but I can’t pinpoint them until they are released. If they are only 2 game slates, I won’t play them. The randomness is increased and the cash and gpp lines tend to bunch up to the point that one huge game from one player (whether he be a stud or a scrub) will make the difference between cashing and barely missing. In an already volatile game like baseball, that ruins the edge of the more experienced player and increases the random luck that the novice can win big. If you are a novice, I don’t mind playing those slates. If you are experienced, wait for better edges. Let the beginners fight over those scraps and smaller gpps while you move to the Main Slate today.
Main Slate Concepts for MLB DFS
Today, I have our pitchers sorted through our VIP Research Station by their K%s. We know strikeouts are king in DFS and today the emphasis is higher than usual. We don’t have a lot of higher priced pitchers, and we don’t have a lot of stud pitching from which to choose. On days like these, we put extra emphasis on the more predictive stats. KScore is one of my favorites.
Jeff Samardzija might not have the highest K% but he does face a high strikeout team in the Padres. On weaker pitching slates, attacking the Padres is usually a sound practice. His KScore is a 521 and actually leads the slate. Greinke is too expensive for his slow-ish start. Morton is also priced up being in Houston and we have better values on the slate. If I wanted to focus on value today, I’d be looking to gamble on Dan Straily making his debut. Under 6k is a nice price for a pitcher that can throw good games. The 22.1% strikeout rate might not be impressive, but PHI tends to swing and miss some and that gives Straily a little boost. At $5800, we don’t need much of a boost to make him playable. Coming of the DL is the biggest risk here, not the price or KScore of 494.
My plan is to attack the lowest rated pitchers on our page, so I can sort by DFSA Grade again and just pick on the bottom pitchers. Chacin, Sanchez, Hammel, Finnegan, Stewart, and Lauer all have ratings under 25……that’s horrible. So, our offenses to dig into will start with CIN, MIN, BOS, MIL, ARI, and SFG. Of those teams, though, only BOS ranks in the top 10 offenses when it comes to scoring runs as a team. I try not to make a habit out of stacking crappy offenses. So, we might need to dig a bit more….
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MLB DFS Teams to Stack
I want it on record I am NOT a fan of stacking Giants today. However, I trust algorithms and computers crunching matchups more than I trust my own eyes at times. I can say several websites outside of our own also love those Giants. I can’t help but think Eric Lauer is on a smaller sample and those recent innings are really skewing these matchups. The Giants are a professional team, but they aren’t a powerful offense. Now, that said, you can make them your foundational stack with McCutcheon, Posey, and Longoria (grand total of $9200) and have your way with the rest of the slate…..namely Boston, who is in a great spot of their own. You can mix and match Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Twins, and Rays for other players that will give you rather unique setups.
Let me toss you some teams I’m looking at today and their hotter players from our TRENDS tool. Our TRENDS tool shows baseline numbers like wOBA, ISO, and Hard Contact and compares them side by side with shorter sample sizes of 14 and 7 days to show you who is heating up or cooling off. You can now board the trains early and/or hop off them before it’s too late. This tool has been a great addition to our stat-loaded Research Station you see pictured above in my screenshots. But, you have to be a VIP to unlock it….. Become a VIP!!
MLB DFS Teams to Stack Today
SFG – Hundley, Longoria, Tomlinson, Belt
MIL – Cain, Braun, Santana
BOS – Betts, Ramirez, Bogaerts, Martinez
CIN – Votto, Schebler, Gennet, Votto
TBR – Ramos, Cron, Span, Wendle
HOU – Altuve, Bregman, Gonzalez, Fisher
MIN – Escobar, Grossman
With the cheaper pitching and cheaper bats featured, you can really mix and match today. Don’t be afraid to leave money on the table. If you have even $1700 left over, so what. Don’t go grabbing Aaron Judge just because you have a ton of money left. If Judge isn’t in a great matchup today, don’t waste the money. This is perhaps the biggest mistake a rookie makes. He feels the need to fill up the cap. In a crazy sport like baseball, it’s completely unnecessary. Fight the urge!!
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
Hoskins, McCutcheon, Longoria, Braun, Smoak, DSantana, Aguilar, Morales
Not a huge list, and ripe for “one-offing.” These guys are on some of the teams mentioned, but you might not feel the need to stack them all. Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOPto trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!