Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible. Give me a follow on Twitter and YouTube for the latest content drops and video uploads. Use code CHOP for a 10% discount, and get busy learning/winning today!! As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing this information across social media. Thank you!
Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS MLB Condensed Slate Breakdowns
Get a quick feel here, but watch the date. Right now, I’m in “pc hell” and will get back to the videos when I can…
MLB DFS Slate Quick Glance
A quick refresh on the columns. Wx is your weather forecast for the day on a safety scale of 1-10, with 0 being played in a dome. Vegas P helps determine the odds your pitcher will get the win. Green is good. Vegas B is the run total of the game for hitters. Again, green is good.
DFS MLB Pitchers Advice
The first thing we look for is a solid pitcher with upside. I use Vegas odds and KScore to point me in the right direction. I tie-break with the price. If there are two similar pitchers in Vegas and KScore, I will opt for the cheaper one. The win is important, but not like it used to be before Fanduel broke up those points into quality starts and the win. Now, on all sites, strikeouts reign supreme in DFS MLB!
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Robbie Ray – Huge K upside, even when facing a team that doesn’t strike out much. You saw what Corbin did last night, right? SFG isn’t typically a threat as they rebuild their franchise. It is a division rival, so they have seen each other before. I have yet to look at history or BVP numbers, but I definitely will….and you should too.
Carlos Carrasco – Puerto Rico was interesting last night. We’ll see what the game manufactures today. The Vegas support isn’t strong for Carrasco, but he has good games in his bad. Another division rival….do your due diligence.
Kenta Maeda – Our models like Maeda best. I see the upside for sure with San Diego loving the strikeout like I love beer on Sunday. Maeda is in a good spot and so are a few of the Dodger bats….telling me the opposing pitcher isn’t great, increasing the chances the Dodgers and Maeda win this one. Sometimes you have to read a little between the lines.
Garrit Cole – His numbers are misleading coming off last year. He is on fire! SEA isn’t a contact-driven team, so more strikeout potential is present tonight. He’s pricey, and with Ray and Maeda cheaper, Cole might get overlooked tonight. If batters like Schimpf or Joc Pederson get starts, you might have easy value to upgrade to Cole and differentiate your lineups a bit. But, for more theory like that, you need to be a VIP via one of the links in this article. I can’t give it all way for free. I’m slutty, but not the village whore.
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MLB DFS Soft Pitchers to Attack
Next, we start looking at bats. We start the process by finding the softer pitching. Perhaps the best, and fastest, way to accomplish this is to look at the last couple years MLB SIERA numbers. If you don’t know what SIERA is, ask in our VIP Slack Chat rooms. Someone will answer it quickly for you. I look for those running over 5.00 and then over 4.50. I write them down on paper so I can see them in one list. NOTE: Opponents will now be in parentheses.
High SIERAs
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Stratton (@ARI) – no one else on the main slate has a huge SIERA….which doesnt mean there won’t be runs scored.
Quick notes: Take special note of the pitcher’s opponents on this list. Look for them to show up on the next lists below as an even better indicator of great matchups.
Drive the racecar that is our MLB Lineup Optimizer — The Domination Station
Implied Run Totals for DFS MLB Bats
Your next step is to look to Vegas to guide you in your quest for the best bats. Implied run totals are not a great indicator of an actual score. They are, however, a nice indicator of bad pitching, ballpark factors, and general good spots for our hitters. I list them in order as I find them and cross-check with where the pitcher shows weakness (handedness of bats).
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ARI – Goldschmidt, Descalso, Peralta
LAA – Trout, Valbuena, Cozart, Calhoun, upton
HOU – Reddick, Correa, Altuve
ATL – Freeman, Suzuki, Albies, Markakis, Inciarte
For more players and a little breakdown of which I’m building around, you just need to become a VIP. Yes, membership has its privileges. Click here to become a member –> ChoppoDong sent me!
#DongCall Time!
Back is the #DongCall, but guys this is supposed to be interactive. We discuss it enough in Slack inside the Army VIP program, but you guys out here on Twitter are who I was hoping to have the most fun with. If you tweet me your dong calls, or guesses at mine, I will retweet them and reply. Twitter is an interactive space where we all grow our reach through interaction. If you want some help, I’m willing to give it where I can. I see #DongCalls as a perfect opportunity to get everyone talking about who they like for the day. Let’s do it!
Yesterday’s #DongCall was Jake Marisnick….ouch. Oh well, he was a long shot. It won’t be the last time you see him in this spot, either.
Here are some other great matchups today. I call these #200on200 and my VIPs know how I’m finding them. Look above at the link “Choppodong sent me” and just join us. You are going to at some point. Might as well lock in your price point now instead of watch our prices go up and keep pissing you off.
#200on200 –
(MAIN) – wow….first time i’ve seen none. Now, there will be home runs tonight. But, like SIERA above, there isn’t an obvious indicator of where they might come from. We need to dig a little today.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
Your greatest compliment is helping me spread the word. Retweets and shoutouts are my favorite. Feel free to use #DongCall when you hit yours, too!