MLB 4/17 Top Stolen Base Targets by @xBenJamminx
In case you don’t know who I am, my name is Ben and I go by xBenJamminx on Twitter and all of the DFS sites.
I recently joined up with the DFS Army and will be providing content for the site and it’s members. I specialize in small slates and NBA is one of my main focuses for DFS.
My DFS Army Slack Channel is #benjammin-nba-mlb
Here I will breakdown some of the best pitchers to target steals against. This is one of the places I believe we can find an edge. I believe that in MLB every little bit counts and when you find guys with upside at low ownership, you set yourself up in a nice spot.
One of the things I like to do is target tall pitchers because they have slightly longer windups due to just being bigger. You learn who is good to attack by watching the games but, like always, I’m more of a numbers guy. The majority of the time you can avoid lefties for targeting stolen bases but if you see Jon Lester, assume everyone will steal a base.
Guys who walks batters are good targets for us here because the fast guys are usually not the big hitters. So it’s good to look for wOBA for both the batter and hitter and BB%. If you find a cheap low owned guy who gets a walk and a steal, that’s immediately hitting value. I also like looking at things like Z-Contact% which is Contact% within the strike zone, O-Contact% with is Contact% outside of the strike zone, and SwingingStrike% (SwStr%)
A metric that I’m starting to use is wSB (Weighted Stolen Base Runs) as a measure of which players steal opportunities end up with more runs, to show whose steal outcomes are most positive for their team and the ability to generate runs from those extra bases.
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Top Stolen Base Targets
Here is my in depth Stolen Base Targets article for tonight! The way to use this is if you were already considering any of these guys, they have a good chance at a Stolen Base today. If you weren’t considering any of these guys but are planning on using a stack, maybe have one or 2 of the low owned guys in there, and if you weren’t considering any of these guys, this may be a good opporunity to look more into their matchup.
I’m also listing their Stolen Base record from 2018 and 2016-17 next to their names.
*Format*
Follow this closely, this is how all of the stats will be laid out, but they won’t be fully identified for each player.
Player Name, Stolen Bases-Caught Stealing (2018 Stolen Base Attempts, Stolen Base%)/(2016-17 Stolen Base Attempts, Stolen Base%), 2016-17 Spd or 2018 Spd for Rookies, 2018 StolenBasesAttempts/PlateAppearances
*Pitchers listed/sorted by 2017-18 Stolen Bases given up*
*Batters listed/sorted by 2018 StolenBasesAttempts/PlateAppearances*
Jaime Garcia 22-5 (TOR) vs KAN
Jon Jay 1-2 (3, 33%)/8-2 (10, 80%), 5 Spd, 6% SBA/PA
Whit Merrifield 1-1 (2, 50%)/42-11 (53, 79%), 3.5 Spd, 4% SBA/PA
Alcides Escobar 1-0 (1, 100%)/21-11 (32, 66%), 7.2 Spd, 2% SBA/PA
Paulo Orlando 0-0 (0, 0%)/15-4 (9, 79%), .9 Spd, 0% SBA/PA
He hasn’t been too successful yet but Jay has 3SBA and a .352 OBP and a 2K%-BB% (remember a low number means he walks almost as much as he strikes out). 15BB% and 17K%. KAN hasn’t really been running much as a team at all so this is my least favorite steal matchup today especially considering Garcia is a lefty but if you’re planing on using any of these guys, they at least have a chance at a steal but besides Merrifield I haven’t been using these guys this year.
Trevor Cahill 17-2 (OAK) vs CWS
Tim Anderson 6-0 (6, 100%)/25-3 (28, 89%), 6.6 Spd, 11.5% SBA/PA
Leury Garcia 2-0 (2, 100%)/10-6 (16, 63%), 5.8 Spd, 9.1% SBA/PA
Adam Engel 1-0 (1, 100%)/8-1 (9, 89%), 7.4 Spd, 2.6% SBA/PA
Yolmer Sanchez 1-0 (1, 100%)/8-10 (19, 44%), 7.4 Spd, 2.6% SBA/PA
The numbers for Cahill are interesting, he gets hit harder vs Lefties but gives up a higher Avg and wOBA vs Righties. This is good because he can be targeted from both sides of the plate. These aren’t guys who walk often and aren’t big OBP guys but if they get on base, they’ll be running.
Gio Gonzalez 14-5 (WAS) vs NYM
Juan Lagares 2-0 (2, 100%)/11-5 (16, 69%), 6.2 Spd, 7.7% SBA/PA
Amed Rosario 0-2 (2, 0%)/7-3 (10, 70%), 7 Spd, 4% SBA/PA
Brandon Nimmo 1-0 (1, 100%)/2-0 (2, 100%), 4.1 Spd, 3.8% SBA/PA
Todd Frazier 1-0 (1, 100%)/19-8 (27, 70%), 3.7 Spd, 1.6% SBA/PA
Gio is a pretty competant pitcher though he does get hit pretty hard vs Righties. You don’t usually think to steal on Lefties but like with Jon Lester, some ppl just have wind ups that allow for baserunners to steal on them. He walks Righties 3% more than Lefties and gets hit 10% harder.
Zach Wheeler 8-2 (NYM) vs WAS
Brian Goodwin 2-1 (3, 67%)/6-0 (6, 100%), 5.7 Spd, 9.4% SBA/PA
Trea Turner 7-0 (7, 100%)/79-14 (93, 85%), 9.1 Spd, 9% SBA/PA
Michael A. Taylor 5-0 (5, 100%)/31-10 (41, 76%), 5.9 Spd, 8% SBA/PA
Wilmer Difo 2-1 (3, 75%)/13-1 (14, 93%), 7 Spd, 7.1% SBA/PA
Bryce Harper 2-0 (2, 100%)/25-12 (37, 68%), 4.5 Spd, 2.6% SBA/PA
The top 3 guys have a combined 15 SBA this year which is the most of any of the top 3 players in these SB matchups and each of them is at least 8% SBA/PA. Goodwin Ks a ton vs Righties and a low 8BB% with a .305 OBP but if he does get on base he’s in a good spot to steal and has only been caught stealing once since 2016. Taylor has a horrendous 24K%-BB% and 6BB% with an awful 31K% vs Righties, he’s not someone I usually will use but if he gets on base he’ll probably get a steal. Turner has a 12K%-BB% with a high 6BB% vs Righties and a OBP of .351, though the matchup here isn’t ideal. Difo has done pretty well at getting on base with a OBP of .326, though he has a 21K% so he’s not a big contact guy. Harper is Harper and has the second negative K%-BB% with -2%, 18BB% and 16K%.
Corey Kluber 15-5 (CLE) vs MIN
Byron Buxton 4-0 (4, 100%)/39-3 (42, 93%), 8.3 Spd, 9.3% SBA/PA
Eddie Rosario 2-0 (2, 100%)/14-10 (24, 58%), 4.6 Spd, 4.9% SBA/PA
Eduardo Escobar 1-0 (1, 100%)/6-4 (10, 60%), 4.1 Spd, 2.6% SBA/PA
Brian Dozier 1-0 (1, 100%)/19-8 (27, 70%), 5.5 Spd, 1.9% SBA/PA
I don’t really recommend playing any of these guys because Kluber is such a tough matchup but when guys get on base vs him, they do actually have a good chance to steal. As a team they only have 8 total SBA but no one Caught Stealing.
Mike Foltynewicz 9-3 (ATL) vs PHI
Rhys Hoskins 3-1 (4, 75%)/N/A, 4.8 Spd, 7% SBA/PA
Aaron Altherr 1-2 (3, 33%)/12-6 (18, 67%), 4.4 Spd, 7% SBA/PA
Cesar Hernandez 3-1 (4, 75%)/32-18 (50, 74%), 5.9 Spd, 6% SBA/PA
Scott Kingery 2-0 (2, 100%)/N/A, 6 Spd, 4% SBA/PA
Odubel Herrera 1-0 (1, 100%)/33-12 (45, 73%), 5.6 Spd, 2% SBA/PA
Not only are these guys attempting to steal, most of them are doing a good job at getting on base. Hoskins and Hernandez have a 19% and 20% BB% and each over .422 OBP this year. Their K%-BB% is 2% and 5%, the lowest on the team besides Carlos Santana (who doesn’t steal bags). I’m surprised how often Hoskins is attempting to steal but he likes to run and is already 3-1 with 7% SBA/PA, he’s playing very well. While Altherr had 3 SBA so far, he hasn’t been on base much with a .214 OBP and .083 AVG but the good thing about that is his BABIP is .050 meaning he’s been getting really unlucky. It’s not a great matchup for him but he has a 14BB% so far this year which slightly makes up for his horrendous 33K%. Odubel Herrera has one of the better individual matchups on the board which can help make up for his lack of BB%.
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