NhlnOn the Deep Dive today I am going to look today’s 5 game slate. All stats come from the dfsarmy.com’s “VIPs only “NHL Research Station ( RS) and leftwinglock.com. From there I am getting Adjusted Corsi For (ACF) Adjusted Corsi Against ( ACA) ( which is for the last 3 weeks) the Implied Team Total (ITT) Shots on Goal and Blocked Shots ( SOGBS). The RS has much more information than just this and is worth your time. From leftwinglock I am getting line matchup information. Hopefully this gives you a taste and you come try out the Army for help and coaching for your dfs needs for all sports. The army really can make you a better player.
Boston at Philadelphia
Vegas has this as a very close game, giving Phi a slight edge on ITT at 2.85 to2.75 for Bos. The RS had the over under at 5.5, but the line seems to be moving up to a 6 now. The Corsi numbers don’t show an edge to either team with them being fairly evenly matched. The one place there may be an edge is that Bos1 and Phi1 match up more than half the time on ice. Phi 1 has given up 5 goals in their last 10 games ( league worst is 7) while Bos1 has only given up 2. Phi2 also has a tough match up. This would make me lean a bit more to Bos for cash players. Both are good GPP teams though. Also note that Bos lost Carlo to a broken leg. R Nash was also shaken up last game but I haven’t heard an update. A Phi win gets them a bit closer to clinching a playoff spot. I am not sure I love any of the Dmen in this game for cash, though Provorov and Ghost are always worth digging deeper on to properly evaluate them.
Nashville at Tampa Bay
This could be a potential Stanley Cup Final preview with both teams leading their conferences. The Lightning have a nice ITT of 3.29 and are the -149 favorites. Nash got hammered 7-4 by Buf last night, and Rinne was pulled after the 2nd period. Who knows which Nash teams shows up tonight. TB is one of the most dangerous teams offensively, but are also very dangerous defensively ……to themselves. On the TV broadcast of their last game the commentators called their defense “Not ready for playoff hockey.” If there is something good for TB to look at its that last game they matched up the Gourde line against the Turris line 65% of the game. The Gourde line has only given up 2 goals in the last 10, while the Turris line has been more dangerous overall than Nas1. On the other hand TB 1 who matched up almost 50% against Nas1 has given up 6 goals last 10, right up with the worst in the league. I still like Nas2 in cash today, while TB is always in play esp in GPP. Hedman, Ellis and Josi are worth consideration at D if you are considering paying up a bit there.
New Jersey at Montreal
The Devils are in a fight with the fading Panthers and Philadelphia for the last 2 playoff spots in the east. A win tonight brings them that much closer locking up one of those spots. In their first meeting the Canadians won a close 2-1 game. Note that Hall did not play that game. The Devils won the rematch 6-4. Hall has had a career season. His line likely will be matched up by Mtl1 for the most part, which has given up 5 goals in their last 10. Hall is licking his chops along with Palmeri. Hischier seems more of a GPP play as he just isn’t as consistent. On the other side of that matchup NJ1 has only given up 2 goals, which likely leaves Gallagher as a GPP play rather than a cash play tonight. Butcher on D for NJ could make for an interesting low cost play today and Petry is usually worth consideration
Washington at Pittsburgh
These two teams are always worth watching. They are both averaging more than 3 goals/game against each other this season and their ITT for today sees them both over 3. Their last meeting, a 7 -4 Pit win in Pit, saw Holtby, who is projected to start tonight, get pulled. He never seems to have his best stuff against Pit. Pit seems to run their 4 lines against Washington without really worrying about match ups, so we can likely expect that again tonight. Along those same lines both teams have fairly balanced scoring, which always makes it hard to find cash plays. Ovi on the surface seems like a safe cash play, but his scoring and shots often come in bunches. Which makes him great for GPP, but for his price in cash I would prefer someone more consistent. Backstrom is worth looking at in Cash. Pitt is just as hard to figure out. Malkin has cooled from his amazing run earlier this season, though Crosby has been heating up and might be the best Cash play. Hornqvist seems to have cooled a bit but is always in play, and Hagelin is worth looking at just because of price. On D Carlson has been a cash lock for the last couple of weeks. Letang and Maata are worth a look as well.
Colorado at Anaheim
Colorado took a big hit last game losing both Varlamov ( for the season) and E Johnson ( 6-8 weeks) which likely hurts their fight for the last playoff spot in the West. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the team come out flat tonight. They only have an ITT of 2.45. Having said that, they always have MacKinnon, who could put the team on his back and drag them forward. Unfortunately for them they have to go into Anaheim and likely face Gibson tonight, which generally puts a cap on great offensive expectations. Anaheim knows a win tonight will really help their playoff chances by putting some space between them and Col. To me Col is a GPP play tonight only ( though I wont blame you if you look at Mac or Barrie tonight) Ana has a bit more to offer with Rackell and Perry and the ITT of 3.05, though I feel they are overpriced for their production recently.
Goalies
There isn’t a lot to make me jump for joy with the goalies tonight for cash players. Bos Phi seems to close to call, Nash TB seems too unpredictable either way, same with Wash Pitt. To me to comes down to Schneider or Gibson, with me likely leaning towards Gibson.
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Cheers
JD