Welcome back after what has seemed like forever. Ok maybe not that long, but two weeks is long enough for me. We had a big shakeup on Sunday for the main event. Tony Ferguson injured himself on April Fool’s day of all days. Thankfully on less than a weeks notice Max Holloway has stepped in. So we still have 13 fights on this card. There are some huge payouts in GPP’s but just remember to not get too carried away and burn your whole bankroll on chasing them. Always play heavier in your cash games over GPP (80% cash, 20% GPP). We just launched Domination Station last card for MMA with very good results. For a quick walkthrough on how to utilize it, Geek has a 15-minute video on it which you can watch here. As always take advantage of the Research Station as well. Geek and I will also have a pod out with our full thoughts and our strategies on the card. Last but not least, join us all in Slack Chat where we will be talking all things MMA with some of the best MMA DFS players out there. All 3 of these tools I mentioned are of course only available to our VIP members so consider grabbing a DFS Army VIP Membership today!
Before we get started I wanted to congratulate two of our VIP members on their big wins this week in NBA. VIP Member Sempernaut won $20,000 on FanDuel on Tuesday night and VIP Member Steelcurtain100 won $10,000 on Fanduel on Monday! The NBA Team is finishing the season strong!
Now let’s start breaking this card down.
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Magomedsharipov (-820) 9.5k vs Bochniak (+560) 6.7k
This fight is a fairly easy one. Magomed is a solid striker with very good takedowns (7.54 TD’s per fight). Not only does he get TD’s but he also gets advances along with it. Bochniak is an ok striker and is decent all-around. I love Magomed in all formats. For cash, I am locking him in and moving on. He has a solid floor and a huge ceiling. Take in mind he is the most expensive fighter so there is merit to fading him in some of your GPP’s. Bochniak I will have very little to no exposure to. Yes, he is the cheapest fighter but, I don’t see many ways for him to win this fight. In summary, Magomed is playable in all formats and I will have quite a bit of him personally.
Clark (-110) 8.4k vs Rodriguez (-110) 7.8k
Clark is a decent wrestler and also works well in the clinch. Rodriguez is a solid striker and athletic. Right now this is a pick’em fight. Neither are save in cash. I do like targeting this fight some in tournaments. I like Rodriguez a bit more for his price and his upside. Both are worth targeting in your lineups but not a fight I will be going all in on.
Evans-Smith (-200) 8.8k vs Rawlings (+170) 7.4k
Evans-Smith is a decent striker and a decent wrestler. She has decent TD’s and ok subs. Rawlings is an ok striker at best. For the most part, I will be fading this fight. While I see Evans-Smith winning the fight there are fighters I like more around her. Rawlings I don’t see her scoring well at all.
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Caceres (-155) 8.5k vs Lobov (+135) 7.7k
Caceres is a decent striker with ok leg kicks. Lobov is a solid striker with good power. I think this fight most likely goes to decision. For that reason, I think Caceres is only worth using in GPP’s. Lobov I don’t mind using in all formats. For his price, even in a decision loss, he should score decently. He lands at a decent rate (3.38 SS’s a minute). My preferred play is Lobov with some small exposure to Caceres.
Dunham (-150) 8.1k vs Aubin-Mercier (+130) 8.1k
Dunham is a solid striker and has shown his toughness in previous fights. He also has solid cardio. Aubin-Mercier (OAM) is an ok striker with decent leg kicks. He is a solid wrestler and grappler. I like Dunham in GPP’s as he has a solid output (5.46 SS’s). OAM is low output striker (2.67 SS’s) but, he does average a little over 3 TD’s a fight. Both are in play in GPP’s. My preferred play is Dunham. I just think he has higher upside. I might have OAM in 1-3 lineups if I am building more then 10-12 lineups.
Lauzon (-185) 8.9k vs Gruetzemacher (+160) 7.3k
Lauzon is a good wrestler with decent submissions. Gruetzemacher is a decent striker with solid leg kicks. He has decent cardio and is tough. Lauzon is only good for about 1 round and then he tends to gas out fairly quickly. Gruetzemacher lands at a very good rate (5.39 SS’s). If he can withstand the 1st round from Lauzon his chances of winning increases dramatically. Both are playable in GPP’s. I will lean towards Gruetzemacher because we need to target some dogs to pay up for the studs on this card.
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Borg (-290) 9.2k vs Moreno (+245) 7k
Borg is a decent striker with good TD’s. He is also solid on the ground. Moreno is a solid striker with decent submissions. Another GPP fight. Borg is a decent pivot off of Magomedsharipov if you can’t afford to get up to him. He is right in between the big Russian stud fighters. For this reason alone he will go low owned. I also don’t mind using Moreno as a punt in a few spots. Especially if you are going to have heavy exposure to the fighters up top you will need to hit the right combo of punts in your GPP lineups. In short, both fighters are playable in tournaments.
Kowalkiewicz (-170) 9k vs Herrig (+150) 7.2k
Kowalkiewicz (KK) is a good striker with solid leg kicks. She has decent combos and solid output (5.17 SS’s). Herrig is a solid striker and a good wrestler. KK is only in play for me in GPP’s and likely not someone I will have heavy exposure to. This fight is likely going to a decision and if that’s the case she most likely won’t reach value. Herrig is a bit more interesting at her salary. She is cheap enough that I want some exposure to her. Overall this isn’t a fight I am targeting that heavily.
Iaquinta (-125) 8.2k vs Felder (+105) 8k
Iaquinta is a good striker with solid power. He is a decent wrestler with ok TD’s. Felder is a decent striker with good elbows. He has decent submissions and good ground and pound. This is another GPP fight. I will have exposure to both. My preferred play is Iaquinta since he has more paths to victory. Like I said I will have exposure to both. They are at very similar prices and the winner should score well.
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Chiesa (-140) 8.6k vs Pettis (+120) 7.6k
Chiesa will have the reach advantage. He is a decent striker and ok wrestler. He is aggressive with decent submissions. Pettis is a solid striker with good leg kicks. I like Chiesa in GPP’s (not a heavy exposure play but, throw him in 1-2 lineups). He has upside with his TD’s and wrestling. Pettis is in play as well to an extent. Mainly because of his cheap salary. In general this is not a fight to target heavily but, definitely worth targeting some from both sides.
Kattar (-120) 8.7k vs Moicano (+100) 7.5k
Kattar is a solid striker with good power. Moicano is a good striker with solid leg kicks. This is a fight I love in tournaments. Both fighters land over 5 SS’s per minute. Vegas likes this fight to go to a decision. For that reason alone and line value Moicano is playable in all formats. I will also have exposure to Kattar as well.
Jedzejczyk (-110) 8.3k vs Namajunas (+100) 7.9k
Jedzejczyk (JJ) is a solid striker and very high output (6.76 SS’s). Namajunas is a good striker and has solid power. In cash, the safest thing to do here is to stack it and move on. GPP’s is a different story. This fight and the main event I will most likely have 100% exposure to. I haven’t decided how I want my exposure to this fight yet. Right now my preferred play is JJ.
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Nurmagomedov (-470) 9.1k vs Holloway (+375) 7.1k
Nurmagomedov is very good grappler with good TD’s. He is aggressive and has good ground and pound. Holloway is taking this fight on less than 1 weeks notice. He is a good striker and has a good output (6.2 SS’s). There is merit to stacking this in cash as well. Since this is the main event I am reserving my thoughts on this fight to our VIP’s. I will have my thoughts on this in Slack as well as on the podcast.
Remember to try out our brand new Domination Station for MMA for this card and join us in the Slack Chat! Good Luck Army!
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