We are winding down the NBA DFS season and if you’re still playing cash (other than H2H) then you’re really behind the 8-ball. The switch to MME and utilizing the DS optimizer should be everyone’s priority. For this reason, I am going to make the NBA content this week strictly MME based. I will focus on game theory, opportunity cost, and remember – our goal is to WIN a tournament and not just to place in it. If we are happy with doubling or tripling our tournament money then we should just be playing double/triple ups that have the same ROI and an easier cash line. Let’s go for first or last!
Let’s talk value and opportunity!
Ersan Ilyasova is just $5,400 and will likely play low-30’s minutes wise and have a solid low-mid 20% usage rate. I think he has an opportunity to return excellent value at the power forward position. Ben Simmons has been priced up and I still think he’s a great target. There aren’t really any studs that I feel strongly about paying up for and Simmons really is the guy I want at the high end of pricing. I don’t mind rolling out Illy, Simmons, and Covington stacks in about 25% of my 150-lineups. That’s a full 3-man stack for 25% just to be clear.
After I run that 3-man stack, I’ll refresh my settings and re-do my exposure settings and “unlock” those three guys (but not uncheck them).
I’ll be paying down at center tonight due to the solid value in the 5k range. I like Kyle Oquinn, Mike Muscala, and Dewayne Dedmon and nice salary relief options. I don’t mind throwing 20% minimum settings on those three and just letting the DS fill in the other 40%.
Tyler Ulis is still underpriced for his current role with minutes and usage. If you factor in his sub-5k price tag on FD he becomes a nice target to focus on, even in a slow-paced game against the Kings. I don’t mind rolling him out in 25% of my lineups.
The Thunder are still playing for a lot and while the Warriors likely don’t want to roll over and play dead they really don’t have much incentive to play 40-minutes for their starters. The Thunder will need Paul George and Russell Westbrook to carry the offensive load tonight and while people try to stack this game hoping for fireworks we can completely fade stacks for this game. The past half-dozen games these two have played have been decided by blowouts, it’s been ugly. Westy and PG13 both are solid targets but PG13 is the guy I really want to invest in heavily. I’ll have him at nearly 50% tonight and he will be my heaviest owned player. Westy will garner about 20% exposure and not because I am overly excited about him but just because I don’t want to miss out if he goes for 70.
Strategy
There is zero reason why you can’t stack the Nets and Sixers. It’s a nice high total and both teams have healthy implied scores. Their players are priced well and have wiggle room for upside. I love Carroll, D Russell, and RHJ to go with the three aforementioned Sixers in the first paragraph. You could even slip in Allen Crabbe at a 5% minimum setting while I would make sure the above grouping all have 15-20% and I would also do some “lock stacks” with the players how you see fit.
Ersan will likely be my second highest owned player on the night behind PG13 just because of his opportunity.
The Rockets have nothing to play for as they have all but locked up the first seed. I don’t think CP3 plays tonight and if that happens then Eric Gordon remains an excellent target (on FanDuel only because of price) while I would also want 10% minimum and 20% maximum on James Harden (I think his minutes could start to trend down). If CP3 misses a little game theory would be that Harden has a minutes cap tonight and Gerald Green becomes the garbage time poster boy we all know him to be and goes for 35 points at sub 4k price tag and single-digit ownership. I’ll take a stab at 10-15% ownership with him no matter who is active for the Rockets and just hope for the best. I am going for first place in these end of the season MME tournaments anyway.
The Kings are one of my top teams to target today due to their matchup with the Suns. Hield, Bogdanovic would be a nice SG stack and low owned do to people wanting one of them but not both in a lineup. Frank Mason will find his way onto a few teams, likely a 2%-5% min/max setting for me.
The Heat are in a nice spot against the Hawks but their prices are way up. Dragic and Tyler Johnson are two targets I likely will have about 10% minimum setting on and just let the DS fill in the rest. I likely will “lock stack” them at PG for 5 or 6 teams as well.
The Knicks and Magic seem like solid targets but identifying the value is difficult due to pricing. If Beasley misses the game then I just think the Knicks go uber small and that means Burke becomes a solid play even at his elevated price tag due to a minutes bump that I think could end in the high-30s. I wouldn’t want anymore than 7-10% exposure though either way. When I use Kyle Oquinn and Trey Burke I would want to run it back with DJ Augustin and Aaron Gordon for a nice 4-man game stack. We are talking small percentages here though so don’t go overboard. These are the types of stacks that I like to do 2% lock, run it, then restart exposures.
On a massive 13-game slate there are going to be a ton of good plays and random people going off and/or sinking lineups. It’s a good slate to increase uniques to possibly 4 and aim for 50-60 players to have exposure to rather than the 3 uniques and 30-40 players. I am thinking more buck shot than slug, hoping a random pellet nails first place.
Best of luck!
<3 Donuts
This is my most recent strategy article, “How to Make a Lineup in 15-Minutes”. If you are living the #DadLife or just uber busy, this article is perfect for people who want to produce a money-making lineup in limited time while using our tools and content in the most efficient way possible.
https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2018/03/how-to-create-multiple-dfs-lineups-in-just-15-minutes.html/ref/22
Here are a couple links to other strategy articles I have written if you are interested in more of my own personal process or strategies:
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