Compared to the other main DFS sports offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, MLB is a completely different beast. There are various statistics and analytics with differing opinion on the importance of each (depending on who you ask) and plenty of data to overwhelm even the best of researcher’s. Disseminating what is most important on any given slate is an ever shifting landscape and I firmly believe that with MLB there should not be any rules that are necessary to follow, only guidelines.
While most of my articles are laced with tremendous amounts of analytics and statistical analysis, I believe that in the beginning of the year we have an opportunity to focus on GPPs more so than cash games, as pricing is soft and a lot of “game log watchers” are present at the beginning of the DFS season. In a sport where even the most successful players can be highly volatile, game log watching is an easy way to burn a hole through your wallet and leave you scratching your head pondering where you went wrong. For this reason, I am going to focus more so on MME and GPP until data starts to even out in the next month or so and then shift focus to H2H and double-ups.
Pitching
It’s a really difficult slate to pinpoint quality pitching options. We are at the back end of rotations for most ball clubs and that means we will have quite a volatile group of pitchers to choose from.
Charlie Morton and Mike Clevenger are two pitchers I will focus on heavily on both FanDuel and DraftKings due to their strikeout rates in 2017 (26% and 27%). Morton will easily be my highest owned pitcher and if you are playing cash today he’s who I would select on both sites as my SP1. The Astros are projected for a slate high 5.36 runs and the Orioles have the lowest implied total (3.76). For MME, I would put Morton in at 40% and Clevenger around 20%.
Jaime Garcia is backed by Toronto’s 5.38 runs and a solid money line for the win. He likely will have a nice opportunity to accrue the win points and earn the quality start. He’s a volatile pitcher and much like most of the other pitching options on the slate, he’s no sure thing. He finds himself as the second highest rated pitcher on our Research Station .
Brian Johnson looks like he’ll get the start for Boston and he’ll likely find himself as my second highest owned MME pitcher on both sites. He’s cheap and offers solid upside pitching for the loaded Boston Red Sox. He is a solid left-handed pitcher and could be in line for the quality start and a strikeout per inning. If he reaches that plateau at his current price then we are in good position to make some money in GPPs. I’ll be targeting him on FanDuel a bit higher than I would on DraftKings due to the flat pricing (very similar pricing across the board no matter the talent or matchup) over there. On FD, I will have him up around 25%.
The rest of the pitchers I will not even begin targeting and will just allow the DS to pick and choose the remaining percentages for exposure. If only making a handful of lineups and not doing MME, stick to these pitchers listed as your pitching pool.
Hitting
The Stros’ have to be targeted like crazy if you’re going to MME today. Josh Reddick is still massively underpriced for his spot in the loaded Houston batting order. He’s going to be one of my highest owned bats of the day. I will be looking to roll four deep (and 5-deep on DK) with Houston stacks and Charlie Morton and hope for the perfect storm of a 15-2 type ball game. Reddick, Springer, Bregman and Gattis are all priced down and are worthy targets on FanDuel. It’s a good GPP strategy to target the lineup but dance around the two highest owned Astros, Correa and Altuve. Exposure to four bats if the team goes off for a dozen runs without having to break the bank would land you in the top 5% of GPPs if your pitcher(s) came through.
The Blue Jays are another lineup I want to stack up today. Solarte and Donaldson are a nice duo at the top of the order without going broke using them. Devon Travis and Curtis Granderson should be batting 1st and 5th and total just $4,500 combined on FanDuel. They are elite value in my opinion. Along with the four Stros’ listed you can stack most of these Blue Jays and still roll with one of my top pitchers. This is why I absolutely love the beginning of the season for GPPs. Nailing down the right stacks and having your pitcher return solid value can yield and excellent ROI.
A few one-off’s I will be targeting today for their matchup and value are Jay Bruce, Rhys Hoskins, and Adrian Gonzalez. They are all in top-10 on the Research Station and have found themselves either underpriced for their matchup and batting order or starting the season hot. Justin Smoak has to be included in some Blue Jays stacks BUT I want to mention that he’s not the type of player I would want to use as a one-off. His ownership should be elevated after having a nice game this past weekend. Keep him to stacks or no exposure at all. This is where the “game log watchers” can get trapped and exactly how we take advantage!
The in-depth data that you normally find in my articles will begin to develop as the season rolls along and we have more recent numbers and trends to rely on. I hope this heavily based game theory and strategy article helps you in your beginning of season GPP and MME approach.
Best of luck,
Love Donuts
This is my most recent strategy article, “How to Make a Lineup in 15-Minutes”. If you are living the #DadLife or just uber busy, this article is perfect for people who want to produce a money-making lineup in limited time while using our tools and content in the most efficient way possible.
https://wp.dfsarmy.com/2018/03/how-to-create-multiple-dfs-lineups-in-just-15-minutes.html/ref/22
Here are a couple links to other strategy articles I have written if you are interested in more of my own personal process or strategies:
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