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MLB DFS Advice – Key Statistic #1 – OBP (On Base Percentage)
Yes, I’m a cash guy. I love stacking hitters, and I love watching myself score points in bunches, too. But, the bottom line is the bottom line. 95% of the time, if my player reaches base, he helps me. If he fails to reach base, he hurts me. Baseball can be that simple. High OBP guys tend to bat higher in orders, draw walks (which are way better than outs), and generally avoid dud performances (a cash game staple). The lower end I like to see is about .350 in OBP, but I’m really looking for the over .400 guys.
Above, are last year’s top 10 hitters in terms of OBP. Everyone but Anthony Rendon bats in the top four of their lineup, and none of them were cheap DFS MLB players, nor should they be. If you are a season-long fantasy baseball guy, you generally take these guys rather early in your drafts. Remember, in cash games, avoiding the goose-egg is priority #1.
MLB DFS Strategy – Key Statistic #2 – SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA)
SIERA is the most accurate of the “ERA estimators.” It helps us answer a very important baseball stat question: What SHOULD the pitcher’s ERA be? We all know ERA can tell us if a pitcher is generally good or bad, if he suppresses or allows runs, and if he is more inclined or less inclined to win or lose games. We also know there are factors in a pitcher’s ERA that he can’t control, like the defense behind him. So, it’s an imperfect number at best.
Enter SIERA. SIERA doesn’t just focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns like FIP and xFIP tend to. SIERA adds in the ever-complex “batted ball in play.” SIERA is attempting to explain why certain pitchers are better or worse at allowing runs. It analyzes their game a little deeper. Generally speaking, a “good” SIERA is below 3.25 and a bad one is above 4.50. Personally, I target pitchers over a 5.00 with opposing bats in DFS MLB.
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When used in conjunction with ERA, a pitcher’s SIERA can tell you if he is pitching better or worse than his numbers show. On top of that, we can somewhat accurately predict the pitcher’s ERA by assuming it will trend towards his SIERA. For example, pitcher A has an ERA of 3.50 and a SIERA of 4.25. This situation suggests our pitcher is getting a little better luck than he deserves. And, he should be posting some subpar outings bringing his ERA up to his SIERA before long. We can watch this pitcher for opportunities to attack in DFS with our bats. If pitcher B, however, has an ERA of 4.15 and a SIERA of 3.10, we can conclude he has had bad luck so far and should normalize with some pretty good outings. And, we may want to avoid this pitcher with our bats until we find other statistics suggesting otherwise.
DFS MLB Tips – Key Statistic #3 – ISO (Isolated Power)
I may like my guys hitting in the top of the order and getting on base, but I think we all know that chicks dig the long ball. And, there is no better predictor of a hitter’s raw power than ISO. This metric tells you how often a batter hits for extra bases. In MLB DFS, not all hits are created equal. Doubles are worth more than singles, and home runs are worth more than doubles. To score well, we will absolutely need some players that scare a pitcher into grabbing the resin bag the moment they step out of the dugout.
Perhaps the best way to summarize ISO is a quote from Fangraphs.com. “For example, a four singles and zero home runs in 10 at bats is a .400 batting average and .400 slugging percentage. One home run and zero singles in 10 at bats is a .100 batting average and .400 slugging percentage. The first player’s ISO is .000 and the second player’s ISO is .300, which tells you that the second player hits for extra bases more often. ISO doesn’t replaced a metric like OPS or wOBA, it simply helps you determine the type of player at which you’re looking.”
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Like the top 10 OBP guys, above you will find the top 10 ISO guys last year. Do you recognize a few of these names? Some of these guys scare the peanut vendors!
In terms of numbers, MLB average is about .140 for ISO. Above .200 is considered great, and below .110 is considered……….well………..me. You want to avoid the latter. He doesn’t get the chicks.
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MLB DFS Advice – Bonus Tip – OBISO (OBP + ISO)
Here is a metric I created two years ago, and for now, only DFS Army VIPs have access to it. OBISO is simply On Base Percentage added into ISO. I wanted the perfect MLB player. One that doesn’t give me zeros as well as one that hits the ball across the Atlantic Ocean. I wanted a player that was at least getting on base if he wasn’t setting off air raid sirens. So, it occurred to me that mixing these fantasy baseball stats together might give me that perfect blend. And, it does.
OBISO is a sliding scale, though. If a hitter is below average in one area, he can make up for it in the other. He can still become a quality DFS asset to my lineup. Think about it. If you get on base all the time, you don’t need a ton of power to be a very effective part of my team. However, if you don’t get on base often, you better be a huge threat to send a ball to the moon or you won’t be in the league past Flag Day. I combined these metrics creating one catch-all MLB DFS stat. The goal was to uncover hidden value in your DFS rosters.
Another System I Created – The “Ladder System” of Contest Selection
Like I said, OBISO is a DFS Army metric and only our VIPs know how to maximize its potential. They know which numbers to look for in both OBP and ISO. They know how to combine the numbers in what ratios and apply them to the salaries of players for whom they are digging. OBISO can take your game to the next level. And, with the DFS MLB season rolling up on us, I’d suggest you give us a look and let our coaching help you hit the ground running for what will be another long, profitable baseball season.
MLB Strategy – Extra Innings
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As always, your best compliment is retweeting and/or sharing these MLB DFS stats across social media. Thank you!