If you have been on slack over the last few days in the March Madness channel, you may know that this weekend is one of my favorite weekends of the entire year. I leave for Vegas on Wednesday night and do not come back till Sunday. It will be a weekend full of betting, booze, and being with family. What more can you ask for.
To kick things off, a little about me. I work on a quant fund in Chicago dealing with analytical models to figure out the stock market. I have loved being able to use data to predict events in life ever since I was a kid and found the perfect career for me. This passion, as you can imagine, lends itself to the sports world fairly easily. If you are in the quant world, you know that March Madness is one of the single greatest events to watch because as predictable as basketball is (and we have a system and expert crew here at DFS Army that prove that on a night in night out basis), no one has seemed to figure out making the perfect bracket.
I have added my name to the ring. With advanced statistical software, I created my own models that will help us predict upsets, who not to get trapped by (like Michigan State against Middle Tennessee), and eventually who should win the tournament. With the new Fanduel mini-game, this model should help you decide which lower seeded teams you should include in your entry.
I have 3 models that will be available in the slack channel. They are:
- First Round Only Win Model
- First Round Only Upset Model**
- Rest of Tourney Win Model
The First Round Only Win Model is a good model that tells you where the chalk should be. It picks very few upsets, but the upsets it does pick win at an 80% clip so I will explain in a bit who those are for us to exploit.
The First Round Only Upset Model is the crown jewel of all my models. Over the last 3 years, this model (for the first round) has spit out a win rate of 90, 78, and 96%. It has picked upsets such as when Georgia State beat Baylor in 2015, UAB defeated Iowa State. Both of those were 13 seeds and no one saw them coming. As I have been saying in slack, the model is picking a massive upset that I will only reveal in Slack for our members to take advantage of. Therefore, when looking at the models on the google sheet, I would pay more attention to the Upset Model when deciding first round games than the Win Model but that is also there for looking.
The Rest of Tourney Win Model looks at the more chalky rest of the field after the first two days to find the winner. In the google sheet you will all be using, you will be able to look at any team vs any team to build out your own unique bracket if you do not like my picks.
Now let’s get into some picks:
Number 1 Kansas vs Number 16 UPENN
I only bring this matchup up for how absurd the Vegas line is. I quoted earlier in the week saying that the Ivy League has been fierce over the last 5 years of the tournament. However, Vegas placed a +900 line on Penn and a -1400 on Kansas. Compare this with Virginia who has a -10000 line. It is truly absurd and I will be taking my 1% ROI on Kansas any day of the week with the spotless number 1 seed records.
10 Providence vs 7 Texas A&M
Upset Model – 80% Chance Providence wins
Over the years, when my model spits out a team that has better than a 65% to win, that team wins at an 80% clip. If they are above 70%, they are at a 90% clip. I see this game as a near lock of an upset and I will have a lot of money on the Providence money line
9 Alabama vs 8 Virginia Tech
Upset Model – 75% Chance Alabama Wins
This feels wrong to call an upset as Alabama is now favored in Vegas, but my model cares about seeding, not Vegas. Again, it is almost a near lock in terms of a win for the Tide and I will gladly pick them.
9 Kansas State vs 8 Creighton
Upset Model – 77% Chance Kansas State Wins
This is the last near lock upset I am calling. Kansas State is going to dominate in this spot.
Notable Big Seed Upsets
Again, you will have to look in the slack channel for the massive upset bid, but below are some more that have been getting buzz around the industry that you should also look to target
12 New Mexico St vs 5 Clemson
Upset Model – 63% Chance New Mexico State Wins
12 South Dakota St vs 5 Ohio St
Upset Model – 65% Chance South Dakota State Wins
That is it for my first model. Hop on slack and feel free to ask me questions. I will post another article tomorrow regarding the rest of the rounds and who my top picks are based on the model
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