I have transitioned to playing on Fanduel from Draftkings, as most of people in the VIP Slack Chat, including the coaches are playing there, so it only makes sense to write about things from a Fan duel perspective. All the stats used are coming from the Members only Research Station at dfsarmy.com. Player stats are based on shots on goal and blocked shots (SOGBS) and goals ( G) and assists( A). They don’t include any bonuses for shorthanded or powerplay goals.
Today I am going to look at options on Defense for this 11 game slate. You all know guys like Burns and Karlsson are options at anytime, so I will not look at them. I also haven’t included S. Jones, as he is injured and may not play tonight. His last game he left early and he didn’t play last night, and I personally don’t want to risk his being a GTD or leaving the game part way through. ( I haven’t seen
an update on his status as of this morning.)
In examining players to roster, I looked at each team’s Corsi for CF) and against (CA), looking for good spots. The Corsi numbers are for the last 3 weeks, not season long (what have you done for me lately). Then I looked at Implied team totals ( ITT) which comes from the Vegas lines and means their implied goals scored tonight based on the money line. We are looking for teams whose ITT is above or very close to 3. There are 11 teams who meet that criteria. Next is combining the Corsi numbers with the ITT numbers to find offences for tonight.
My primary offenses for tonight are Carolina, Winnipeg, Pittsburgh, San Jose and Tampa.
The Secondary offenses are Florida, Colorado, Vegas, and Chicago.
I also have a list of tertiary offenses in Columbus, Philadelphia and Washington.
This doesn’t mean that I have Dmen from every one of these teams, or that every Dman I look at comes from one of them.
T Barrie ( Colorado). Colorado has an ITT of 3.07 as a slight favorite over Chicago. They have a negative Corsi value, being the 26th best CF going against the 23rd best CA. Barrie however has been a monster lately. His season averages are 5.99 pts/g from SOGBS and 13.64 total pts/g. In the last 3 weeks his numbers have jumped to 8.29 pts/g from SOGBS and 22.47 total pts/g. He is scoring almost 9 pts/g more the last few weeks than his season long average and his high floor of 8.29 is hard to ignore. At a cost of $5800 and being this hot, he seems well worth paying up for. That train is going to crash soon, but tonight doesn’t feel like the night.
D Doughty ( LA). While LA only has an ITT of 2.33 G for tonight, they have a positive corsi value, being ranked 14th and going up against the Jets 24th ranking. The Jets also have a positive ranking, which could increase the opportunities for blocked shots. On the season, Doughty has been averaging 12.24 pts/g for the season, but 19.49 for the last 3 weeks, an increase of over 7 pts/g. His SOGBS have had a slight increase as well. The question is can Doughty continue riding the wave, and is he worth his $5900 price tag going against a Jets team that is tough at home. He just might be.
V Headman ( TB). Headman has improved his numbers over his season average, slightly on SOGBS and by about 3.3 pts/g total, up to 16.32. For his cost of $6500, we might be better off going with Doughty or Barrie and using the savings elsewhere, but TB is a primary offense at home against a Toronto team that while good lately, has been known to be leaky. The Corsi numbers have the 7th ranked Lightning going up against the 4th ranked Leafs, which could be better.
C Letang/J Schultz (Pit). Pittsburgh has a very positive Corsi number, being ranked 9th and facing the Islanders 21st ranking. Letang’s numbers show a slight dip in his floor of SOGBS at 5.69, but an increase of 2 pts/g to his total of 13.69. The Penguins are in a great spot tonight though. Schultz’s numbers are lower, with an average of only 9.16 pts/g. Of note though is the $1900 cost savings in dropping to Schultz. Letang comes at a cost of $6400. The question becomes do you take Letang in this smash spot, spend $100 more to go up to Headman’s higher average but tougher matchup, or drop down to Schultz so you have some exposure to the Penguins and spend the money somewhere else.
Gostisbehere/Provorov ( Phi). The Flyers made the tertiary offense list due to their ITT of 2.98 and -141 favorite status, though the Corsi numbers are against them ( 19th vs 10th). I wanted to look at these players though for the comparison value. For the season , Gostisbehere is averaging 13.24 pts/g. In the last 3 weeks though that number has dropped to 10.25, while his SOGBS floor has risen slightly to almost 7 pts/g. This means his G and A have dropped off. He is cold cold cold. Provorov on the other hand has seen his points rise from 10.47 to 13.61, including his SOGBS rising from 6.03 to 7.71. So he is more active everywhere. Gostisbehere will cost you $6200. Provorov will cost you $5200. I am sure you can find a use for the $1000 somewhere.
Byfuglian ( Winnipeg). The Jets 3.17 ITT and 5th ranked CF goes up against LA’s 19th CA. LA is a good defensive team, but better at home. Buff had increased his SOGBS avg by about 3.3 pts per game to a nice floor of 9.44. His total average the last 3 weeks is 15.44 pts/g. His Cost is $6000, which likely will make you question if Barrie of Doughy are the better value, but as a GPP play in particular Buff makes for an interesting choice.
Reilly ( Toronto). The Leafs have a low ITT of 2.38 and are in tough going against TB’s 2 ranked CA. But Reilly has raised his SOGBS avg from 5.65 to 9 and his total avg to 22.5, and increase of 11 over his season long avg. For a cost of $5300 his is right there in the discussion with Barrie and Doughty and mid 5K players to look at tonight. Taking 2 of the 3 isnt unreasonable.
Pulock (NYI). For a cost of $4300 Pulock gets you that similar last 3 week average of 13.82 points as Letang and Provorov. The others have higher ceilings for sure, but sometimes a solid floor and lower cost can come in handy. Pulock’s average is up almost 4 pts a game, which by the numbers is all coming from G and A. If you decide to pay down on D tonight, Pulock should be one of your choices.
Matheson ( Florida). A cash game favorite of the Army. Why? The last 3 weeks Matheson has been averaging 8 pts/g from SOGBS alone. For a cost of $4800 he is hard to look past in cash games. Pairing up Matheson and Pulock for two cheap Dmen will give you a decent floor and leave lots of money for other spots. Matheson is probably the safer cash game choice if you are only taking one.
So, you can see there is a good range of Dmen to look through tonight, with others that didn’t grab my attention but might grab yours. There are very valid pay up for both and pay down for both strategies here. With such a large slate, I am sure you can sift through the other positions on your own to find value, and maybe paying up on D is the way to go.