NHL DFS Advice for 3/8/2018
NHL Hockey is a volatile game in real life and DFS. I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most like baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your line-up. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success. For more nuggets follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs and follow along in Slack. The goal of this article is to highlight a few stacks, defensemen and goalies for you and add a few honorable mentions. My picks are almost exclusively taken from this player pool, unless I find some value as the day goes on. Those notes are for VIP’s only though. I am very active in Slack and I will answer anyone’s questions or help you finalize your lineup.
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I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play some Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. DK favors activity (ie shots and blocks more so than FD), while on FanDuel goals and assists are king. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options; in GPP, you live and die by your line stacks.
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You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 12-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
WPG 3: Laine, Stastny, Ehlers – They are line three in name only. Don’t let that deter you. They are the best line the Jets have. These guys have eight goals in the last ten games and six of them coming in the last three games and are the top CF team over that time. So they are shooting a ton and scoring. That is the recipe for continued success. Look at Laine’s recent game log and tell me that doesn’t give you the eggplant emoji.
FLA 1: Bjugstad, Dadonov, Barkov – Yes, they will be chalky, but there are so many games that ownership won’t matter. They are the hottest line in the league right now: 12 goals over the last 10 games and seven of them coming in the last three. That’s unsustainable production, it will fall off and fall off hard, but MTL is middle of the pack in 5-on-5 defense and awful on the penalty kill. This is not the time to jump off this train.
LAK 1: Kopitar, Iafallo, Brown – I haven’t started building yet, but I think these guys are cheap enough to build a solid lineup around as your late night hammer stack. They have seven goals over the last ten games and 5 of them coming in the last three. They are likely going to be matched up with the Ovechkin line, which has given up seven goals in the last 10 games. If they can’t do their damage 5-on-5, LAK’s #8 ranked PP will likely have several chances against WSH’s 23rd ranked PK over the last three weeks.
Honorable Mentions: NJ1, EDM 1, NYI 1-2, SJ 1, BOS 1-2, TB 1-2, NSH 1, COL 1, CBJ 1
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Petry: You know my thoughts on him, just play him until FD prices him to the point where you can’t. He has the perfect floor for cash games. He is a shot/block machine and gets involved in the scoring fairly often which gives him upside way beyond his price tag.
Nemeth: I have jumped off the Greg Pateryn train (Dallas isn’t playing tonight anyway) but we have a new guy with a similar skill set and similar production. Neither of them score very much but they are blocked shot machines. Nemeth is so cheap and offers plenty of room for studs at other positions.
Jones: Colorado gives up a bunch of shots and Seth Jones is one of the best offensive defensemen on the slate. He offers a solid floor and multiple point upside. He is a perfect ladder component.
Honorable Mentions: Barrie, Ristolainen, Vatanen, Faulk, Gilmour, Ellis, Yandle, Matheson, Krug, Holden, Hedman, Gostisbehere
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict. Just like a pitcher in baseball, they can come out flat. And once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Rinne: 7-1-0/2 shutouts/2.14/0.933/-155. Not the biggest money line favorite on the board, but otherwise he is the safest. Anaheim doesn’t shoot at lot so that may lower his ceiling. But the way he is rolling, he is almost a guarantee for the win. Even if he doesn’t pitch the shutout, NSH’s elite offense should take advantage of ANA’s lack of ability to suppress shots on goal.
Luongo: 6-1-1/2.60/0.925/-200 Bobby Lou is a massive favorite against a team that shoots a ton but is not projected to score much (3rd lowest ITT on the slate behind NYR and PHI). I think Vasilevskiy and Rask soak up most of the ownership in all formats tonight, so Luongo makes a great GPP play and even good in cash if you can’t afford to get up to Rinne.
Jones: 5-2-1/2.27/0.933/-148. This play is risky but it can also win you the slate and act as late night hammer. STL is a mess, there’s no denying that. But the Sharks are the worst CA/60 team in the league over the last three weeks. STL doesn’t shoot a lot but if they start firing the puck on net tonight and do it with the efficiency they’ve had lately – Jones could be in for a night full of easy saves. It’s a lot of “if’s”, that’s why this is a GPP only play.
Honorable Mentions: Vasilevskiy, Rask, Bobrovsky, Berube (risky, but also could pay off in a big way), Anderson (only because BUF is terrible)