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DFS Army MLB Battle Plan Part 2: Lineup Construction

Lineup construction differences for Cash vs. GPP

Cash games should always be the basis of your DFS Play.  You can find several different articles and podcasts on DFSArmy.com that explain the reasoning why and describe the best contests to enter so I won’t really go into that here.  However, I will go into different types of lineup constructions for both sites in general and how to approach building them.

Cash Game Lineup Construction:

I’m a firm believer in a couple of things for cash games no matter the site or the sport.  One, I don’t believe in “blocking” or playing someone just because they are going to be highly owned in cash games.  I’m the minority in this in the Army, but I feel it’s important to let you know so you understand my second point.  Which is this.  I always believe, that the best strategy when approaching Cash games is slate dependent and there are very little black and white rules.  I feel you should put your best and most optimal lineup into cash games and tournaments, especially in MLB where variance is so high, that you can literally WIN tournaments with your cash game lineup.  I don’t fade due to ownership in cash, and I don’t put someone I don’t feel is a good play into my cash game lineups if I feel he is a bad play.  Like I said, I’m in the minority here, but since I’m the one writing this, you are going to get my view.  I will also state this, my background is mostly GPP’s, so I rely a lot on the DFSA Grades and the Domination Station with my projections to help me build a cash lineup.  Also understand when I say cash, for me personally, I’m talking strictly Head-2-Head games.

There is a big debate around the industry regarding whether you can or should stack in your cash game lineups.  Like I said, I think a lot of this depends solely on the slate, but I feel you can stack up to 3 players in great situations if you want too and it’s not compromising the rest of your lineup.  However, I see the argument for limiting your cash game lineup to a max of two players from one offense as well and spreading it out.  Again, all slate dependent, so I feel you must be adaptable in both types of roster construction.

Pitchers:

When looking for Cash Game pitchers, the first thing that people generally look at is if the pitcher is a good chance to get the Win (W).  They do this by looking at the Vegas Money line (which I will go into detail about later).  Depending on who’s favored, the matchup they have, and several other factors, that will lead you in the direction you should go towards pitchers.  However, it’s not always as easy as just locking in the highest favorite according to Vegas.  Where the extra points for the W are great, I am a firm believer in going after something a lot more predictable when it comes to my pitchers.  Strikeouts.  I hunt for K’s in all formats, I do take into if the pitcher is going to pitch deep into the game to get credit for the W, which also means you should be looking at the opposing pitcher and the lineup that is put out when confirmed.  All of these can go into winning or losing cash games.

Hitters:

Make no mistake, in today’s MLB, the Home Run is king.  But where any player can hit two out of the ball park on any given day, you really should focus on some other key stats that are available for cash games.  I’ll go more into stats later, but you want to focus on guys that first have the ability to get as many at bats as possible.  Your players at the top of the lineup are going to get more plate appearances and personally, I will focus on visiting teams to make sure I get a full 9 innings of chances for my hitters.  You also want to make sure that you stay away from guys that are what we call “platoon players.”  These are guys that generally only see AB’s against the handedness of pitcher that they hit better.  Typically, these aren’t your guys that are every day starters, that get starts against the opposite handed pitcher of the side of the plate they hit from.  So right handed hitters against left handed pitchers and left-handed hitters against right handed pitchers.  The reason we stay away from these guys in cash games is we want to get as many at bats as possible, and later in the game, managers will pinch hit for these guys if the opposing team brings in a relief pitcher that forces them to either have a significant disadvantage during the at bat, or remove them from the game for another hitter.

We focus on top of the order guys, typically not going below the 6-hole hitter except in extreme circumstances where a player is significantly cheap, and we don’t have many options.  I want to try to acquire as many of these stats as possible.  I want guys that get on base, can steal bases, or drive in runs.  Either with extra base hits, or home runs.  So, stats like wOBA, OBP, and our own OBISO along with a combined DFSA Grade and solid lineup position are all combined to build the best lineup possible.  For positions, typically guys where you can get look to get value are at catcher, second base, shortstop, and possibly one outfield spot.  Positions like first base, third base and outfield are where you can typically find guys that are at the top or middle of the lineup.  Players that get bumped in the lineup from like the 7, 8 or 9 holes to one of the top spots are generally perceived as great value’s because the price they are currently at reflects a lot of the time on the lineup position they spend the most time at.  Remember, there are a ton of things that can happen during a baseball game, but if you keep it simple as far as identifying who is consistent for cash games, then over the course of the season, you will notice yourself putting together better and better lineups for your cash games.

GPP’S:

Now we are getting into my favorite part of the game.  Tournaments for MLB are unlike any other sport.  Everyone has a different way of thinking on how to attack tournaments in MLB.  The biggest question is surrounding the strategy of stacking.  In MLB above every other sport, stacking allows the true correlation of the lineup to boost you up the leaderboard in tournaments extremely quickly.  Think of it this way.  I’m going to use the Rockies lineup with FanDuel scoring as an example since I know for sure what their lineup is going to be.  Ready?

Charlie Blackmon leads off, get’s a walk/hit and reaches first.  Blackmon receives 3pts

Charlie then steals second base receiving 6 fpts.

D.J. LeMahieu singles to doubles to right-center scoring Blackmon.  D.J. receives 12.7 fpts, Blackmon adds another 3.2 fpts.

Nolan Arenado doubles (6), D.J. Scores (3.2) and Nolan get’s the Run Batted In (3.5).

Carlos Gonzalez hits a home run (12), which scores Nolan (3.2).  Carlos get’s credit for 2 runs batted in (3.5 x 2 = 7) and a run scored (3.2).

So, this is how things would look:

Charlie Blackmon – 12.2 fpts

D.J. LeMahieu – 12.7 fpts

Nolan Arenado – 12.7 fpts

Carlos Gonzalez – 22.2 fpts

So, with this stack we have accumulated 59.8 fpts with the correlation that occurs when things go right.

Of course, when you put together a lineup with 4 players from the same offense, you are increasing the upside your lineup has, which is exactly what we want for tournaments.  There are a ton of different ways to stack in tournaments and you can skip players and use other players that aren’t in consecutive spots in the batting order as well.  Again, it all depends on several things like matchup, the team your stacking, and the order of the hitters.  Hopefully you get the idea though.

One of the biggest advantages we have in the DFS Army with several coaches is the quality of game theory that we apply when attacking tournaments, on a nightly basis.  In NBA, I don’t always mind playing a guy that is going to be 35% owned or higher if the price is right and that player is in the right situation.  However, for MLB, I won’t touch a guy that I feel is going to be that highly owned because it’s always a very real possibility that player puts up a zero.  Think of it this way, Hall of Famer FAIL at the plate almost 70% of the time they step in the batter’s box.  Mike Trout facing the worst pitcher in the world in Coors Field can still produce a goose egg.  Now, you can still cash or win a tournament with a zero or a lower score in your lineups, so it’s not totally the end of the world if that happens.  Therefore, I’ll get creative with the higher owned stacks by skipping players or skipping the top of the lineup and targeting for the middle of the lineup or lower. It all depends on the situation and how you want to attack it but there are a ton of different ways to build tournament lineups.  If you stack two teams that go off for 10 runs, and you capture a lot of that production, odds are, you will have put yourself in position to have a great night in tournaments.  It’s not always easy.  I’ve heard some of my colleague’s state that stacking is an “art” and they’re right.  That’s why I designed the Domination Station to work with the DFS Army Projections to help you in getting used to stacking in different ways.

When targeting pitchers for tournaments, I focus on two things, strikeouts, and matchup.  If the pitcher I want can get me double digit k’s and can go deep into the game, I usually have no problem playing him in tournaments.  You can win with the expensive pitcher, but you can dominate by spending money smartly and going for a guy that is going to go overlooked, and get close to double digit strikeouts in the matchup he’s in.  For tournaments, getting the W and QS is a bonus.  I’m looking for pitchers that can dominate a game.  If they are in the single digit ownership, then that’s the bonus to allow me to spend more money on my hitters.