Hello again Army! Welcome to a VIP only edition of some in-depth NASCAR strategy. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out my beginner and intermediate articles first. And of course, remember to always practice proper bankroll management and utilize those cash ladders.
This article focuses on the expensive drivers; dominators and studs. If you find yourself confused by any terminology, please review the previous articles. If something is still not clicking, hit me up on Slack @nillyJay and let’s discuss it further. Let’s get to it!
The importance of managing your salary
As we know, NASCAR DKFP is earned and not produced. Drivers can only earn as much DKFP as their situation allows (positive place differential and however much DKFP isn’t taken by the other drivers).
When you roster a stud, you’re not doing it for their “production” like in other sports – you’re paying up for their ability to perform well when they are in a situation to earn a significant amount of DKFP. This style of scoring is unique to NASCAR and is something we have to build around.
Because there is more that ties into this, I’ll break it down with an example later in the article. For now, let’s move on.
Choosing how many dominators you need
Every race has the same question regarding dominators. How many of them do we need? Simply put, we want the fewest amount of dominators needed to earn the majority of lead/fastest laps. To figure that, there are a few things we need to consider. We’ll start with the track itself. Take a look at this chart:
This is comparing the season low/average/high number of laps in a race. Note that place differential is not shown here because drivers take these away from one another. It will always equal zero.
The blue cells show the raw amount of DKFP available while the yellow cells show it as a percentage of the total DKFP. Notice how drastically the percentages change with the number of laps. This is part of what tells us how many dominators we need!
Next, we compare these numbers to what our research tells us. Consider who the potential dominators are and start narrowing them down. For example:
- which of them is doing the best in practice?
- how are their 10-lap averages (long runs)?
- have they dominated here in the past/this season?
- have they dominated at similar tracks recently/this season?
- are there a select few who have been dominating regularly this season?
- do they have extra motivation to do well? (playoffs, home track, narratives, etc)
- if another one is leading, can anyone else take the lead away from them?
- does the track have a lot of crash history, or is it a safer track?
- are the green flag runs at this track typically short, long, or in between?
- who is better at restarts? (single lap speed can also come into play here)
- who could hold/take away the lead on a restart? who could lose it?
The goal is to determine who has the best chance of dominating the race for as long as possible. Unfortunately there’s not always a clear-cut answer and you’ll have to build your lineups accordingly, but ideally, we want to cut 5+ studs down to 2 or 3.
Correlating your studs/dominators
Consider this scenario: an average 290 lap race and two lineups that use the same core (two chalk dominators and a chalky low tier driver in a decent spot), but are built differently otherwise. Let’s play out a somewhat standard race at a 1.5-mile track (stats are averaged from a handful of similar races).
What went wrong with lineup B? The two chalk dominators did exactly what they should have done…they led the race. Together they combined for 88% of the lead laps (which is not uncommon). The third dominator was left with only 12% of the total lead laps available. That’s less than 1% of the total DKFP, and lineup B spent $11.3k trying to get those scraps (even if they won the race, this lineup would still be 25+ DKFP short of the other one). The punt play didn’t go off and the $6.6k low tier driver wound up falling back a little.
On the other hand, lineup A left that 12% on the table in favor of going after more place differential and safer finishing positions. Not only did the $8.2k driver outscore the $11.3k stud (which was predictable in this scenario), but that extra salary enabled them to bolster the rest of the lineup. They avoided the bad low tier drivers and paid up for better value options.
The point of this isn’t to say “don’t roster 3 dominators!” That’s certainly a viable strategy when the opportunity presents itself. You just need to be sure that your dominators can coexist in the same lineup without cannibalizing each other’s floor/ceiling.
Change the scenario a little bit. Keep dominators 1 and 2 the same, but change dominator 3’s starting position to 39th instead of 8th. You’re now paying for two dominators to lead laps and a stud to earn a bunch of place differential/fastest laps as they charge to the front. This could easily double the third stud’s DKFP and put lineup B ahead. Same drivers, better situation for that approach.
If you’re paying up for a stud/dominator, they need to be in a position where they can justify their salary. Don’t blindly roster them. Use them when the situation calls for it.
Situations to be aware of
To close out this article, I’ll give examples of when I consider rostering and fading studs and dominators. There are always new situations presenting themselves, so stay sharp and trust your gut if something doesn’t look good.
Good situations, higher floor/ceiling. Studs/high priced drivers who are..
- on the pole and are faster than the others in their price range
- fast and near the front in 1.5 mile long tracks or shorter
- qualified last or close to it
- capable of taking the lead away from another stud
- making a lot of quality passes (passes done in the top 15)
- in a spot to earn multiple sources of DKFP
- fast pole sitters at short tracks, Atlanta, Kansas, and Darlington
- fast pole sitters at a track they are known for dominating
- known good drivers at niche or specific types of tracks
- any of the above who has something to win for (playoffs, home track, etc)
Bad situations, limited floor/ceiling. Studs/high priced drivers who are..
- starting 5th-15th who are slower than the others
- starting 5th-15th at 1.5+ mile-long tracks
- on the pole at a shorter track that is slower than the others
- near the front/on the pole at a plate race
- at a track they are known to have issues with
- known to struggle to hold a lead (low number of laps led compared to others)
- starting from the back but qualified in the top 10 (especially at long tracks)
That’ll do it for now. Stay tuned for more VIP only articles going over other areas of lineup construction. Until then, see you guys & gals in Slack!