Hello everyone!

In case you all didn’t know, my name is Matt, mdellagnese14 on twitter. I am currently a student at Springfield College with a love and passion for sports, mainly baseball.

I was brought to the DFS Army to write pitching articles for all members of the DFSArmy! If you are not a member, join the DFSArmy and use promo code “DFSMATT” to get 10% off your subscription!

I am mostly a Fanduel player, but the content in my articles will be for geared mainly towards Fanduel. However, I will include pricing from all three sites (Fanduel, Draftkings, FantasyDraft). Some plays may be better off for the two pitcher sites and I will mention that when needed about a pitcher.

Pitching is one of the most, if not the most important position in your MLB lineups and selecting the right one will help you tremendously. This article here will give you a great strategy for selecting your pitcher for your lineups each day. Use this as a reference when doing your own research and by this article, you will be able to see my thought process when I select the pitchers for my articles!

Enjoy this strategy article and if you have any questions feel free to ask via twitter or in our VIP Slack Channel!

Vegas

When selecting your pitcher for cash games of GPPs, the first thing to look at is the Vegas Odds. When playing cash games look for pitchers who have high Vegas odds, (ex: -200) Fanduel (FD) gives you 6 points for the win while Draftkings (DK) and FantasyDraft (FD2) give you 4 points for a win. Each day, Vegas gives teams implied run totals every day and have implied game totals too. Typically, for cash games, if a team is implied over 4 runs, I will not use that pitcher against them in cash games. When selecting cash pitchers, you want the one who is the highest favorite and the team they are facing are implied less than 4 runs.  The pitcher in the lowest game totals are the first ones I put on my list for the night.

For GPPs, Vegas is still important, but there are many other factors. It is okay to pick pitchers who are not heavy favorites because people will feel they should fade them causing them to have low ownership. Much more goes into selecting a GPP pitcher than cash.

Location, Location, Location

Once I get my cash pool from the Vegas odds/totals, the next step is to determine if the pitcher is at home or on the road. Typically, the home pitcher is the one to have in cash games, but like anything else, there are other factors. Some pitchers have massive home/road splits (like COL pitchers for example). Also, in cash, it is not usually a smart idea to use pitchers in COL, (yes even if it’s Kershaw, who does not have the best history pitching in Colorado). Pitchers usually pitch better when they are at home and if two pitchers are very close, I would tend to pick the pitcher pitching in his home park. GPPs you could take a chance. Some pitchers actually do have good numbers in Colorado, that’s where we have the edge over the competition because that is what I am here to find for you!

Distance

After that, look into the distance they go into the game. This works for cash and GPPs because you want your pitcher to go long into games. The longer he pitches, the more points he can get. Fanduel you get a Quality Start (QS) bonus of 4 points, so picking a pitcher that can go 6 innings with 3 ER or less is crucial. Those 4 points can be a huge difference in GPPs. Typically look for pitchers who average 6+ innings per game over the season. In the beginning of the season when there is not much data I usually go back to the season before or even past 2 seasons to see some trends.

Basic Stats

One very important stat for selecting your pitcher is strikeouts. Strikeouts rack up points in a hurry equaling 3 points on FD and 2 on DK/FD2.  Targeting a pitcher who gets a strikeout per inning is something I love to do. Look at a pitcher’s recent form and see how many strikeouts they have been getting per start and what their K per 9 is. Low strikeout guys rarely make it into my cash or GPP lineup.

Earned Run Average (ERA) is the next stat to look at when selecting a pitcher. This is calculated by the following equation, (Earned runs allowed/innings pitched) x 9. In today’s game, any ERA under 4.00 is considered good, and lower is obviously better. The main range I look for when selecting pitchers is 3.50 and lower.

Fanduel does not take away anything but Earned Runs, but DK and FD2 take away for walks, hit batters, and hits against. On those two sites, it is important to find people who have a lower Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP). This is calculated by the following equation,

(walks + hits)/total innings pitched.  You do not want your pitchers to be letting men on base. The fewer men he allows on base, the fewer chances of giving up runs and losing points (albeit a solo HR).

Do You Need to Select an ACE?

People may think just because there’s an ACE on the hill that they must be used in cash games. That is not the case. Matchup and price still HAVE to be considered, no matter who the pitcher is. If they are facing a team who has been scorching hot or has very good history against him, you DO NOT need to use him. Do not use someone just because of the “name” factor.

If they have a tough matchup it is OKAY to fade him on that slate, there will be plenty of more chances to play him in better spots. If an ACE is in a tough matchup but they have high strikeout percentage (K%) then they can be considered for GPPs, but may not necessarily be safe cash plays on that slate.

Splits

I am big into splits when picking pitchers. I like to find that reverse split guy that people will NOT be looking at. Some pitchers have crazy splits over their careers and that is something I look into. It’s important to look at the projected/final lineups for teams when they come out. If a lefty is facing a right-handed heavy lineup, it may not be the smartest idea to roll him out there and vise versa (although lefty-heavy lineups are not as common). There are all different splits that need to be considered when selecting your pitcher. Check if they are pitching at home or the road and look at the player’s home/road splits. Then check out the projected lineup he could face and compare that to their L/R splits.

Advanced/Sabermetric Stats

Some people use Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average (SIERA), some do not. I am someone who does. I like that SIERA takes into account everything the pitcher can control. If a pitcher has a higher SIERA than ERA it would seem he could be getting lucky on balls in play and he just is not giving up many runs. That causes me to look more into this pitcher to see if he is a pitcher to use in your lineups on the slate. The following chart from Fangraphs.com shows the breakdown of good/bad SIERA.

I look into their Batting Average of Balls In Play (BABIP) against too. This is a good indicator if hitters are getting lucky against him or if he is getting lucky. If it is around .300 then it would be considered neutral. The only time I look hard into BABIP is if it’s far off the average.

Isolated Power (ISO) is another stat I look at along with an offense’s K rate. ISO shows the raw power of an offense. We do not want our pitchers giving up tons of runs because that will kill your lineup very quickly.

K% is key because if teams are striking out a lot and are facing a pitcher who gets a ton of strikeouts that is a CASH/GPP money maker right there.

Swinging Strike % is another stat to look into when selecting a pitcher. If a pitcher has a high Swinging Strike % and the opponent does too, that could mean some extra strikeouts for the pitchers. This is not something I look a TON into, but it is something to really consider when I pick my GPP pitchers.

I also look at pitcher FB/GB ratios. You want your pitchers to keep the ball in the ballpark, and if they have a high GB% they most likely do not give up many home runs.

Recent Form

One of the biggest thing I look into is how the offense the pitcher is facing is doing over their last 14 games. Baseball is so hot and cold it’s hard to take full season numbers. Fangraphs.com is the best website to use for pretty much all data I can find. Numbers I look at the most over the last 14 is Weighted Runs Created plus (wRC+). wRC+ is a rate that credits a hitter for the value of each hit rather than having them equal the same. like a double is worth more than a single, triple more than a double etc. The league average is usually around 100, so if over the last 14 games the team is severely below that, I will like to target a pitcher against them. There was sometimes last season where teams had less than 60 wRC+ over the last week and 2 weeks. I picked on those teams for a while.

Check how the pitcher has been pitching recently. Remember, wins do not show how good/bad a pitcher is doing lately. Check out his basic stats (Hits allowed, ER allowed, Walks, K’s). If you don’t have time to check the advanced stats, well, that is what we are here for!

Weather is Important!

ALWAYS CHECK THE WEATHER AND BE UP TO DATE WITH BREAKING NEWS. We cannot stress this enough. We don’t want to hear people saying, “my night is over, my pitcher was taken out because of a delay”. If @dfsweather says there is a great chance of a delay or PPD, DON’T play that pitcher. Having a 0 from a pitcher can quickly ruin your cash lineup.

If there is a slight chance of delay, that pitcher MAY be okay to use, but only in GPPs. It could give you that edge over the field. In cash, pick the pitcher with good weather, low win, or in a dome.

Quick summary

CASH pitchers

• good vegas odds (best chance of getting a win)
• SAFETY and zero weather issues
• home team (some away pitchers are okay too given the matchups)
• high K% and K/9
• low ERA
• Deep into games (QS bonus on FD)

GPP Pitchers

• elite K% and K/9
• Low ERA, SIERA, ISO against
• High Swinging strike %
• can pitch deep into games
• win important, but do not necessarily need it to take down GPPs.

Use pitchers whose opponents have:

• low ISO
• low wRC+
• High K%
• High Swinging K%

Final Note

Do not be afraid to take risks in GPPs. There is such thing as smart risks and not so smart risks. I make sure when trying to find that hidden gem that all my research is done for that pitcher. I won’t suggest a pitcher just because I want a low-priced guy who COULD do okay. He needs to be in a good spot. For people getting called up, I look into their minor league stats and how they have been doing there. Rookies are not always the best to use, but when you dig deep enough you could find that hidden gem that no one else is talking about.

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