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Loosmeister NBA DFS Game Theory for 1-20-2018

The goal of my articles will be a game by game breakdown, and listing the plays I like. If a player is in CAPS, he is someone I love. If he is not in caps, it is a player I am considering. The objective is to teach people how to apply knowledge using our DS optimizer (Exclusive to our VIP Members)  I strongly believe most people who play DFS understand the sport they are playing, but it comes down to applying the knowledge they have. Every article I publish will try and steer you in the right direction of who you want to slap an adore/love/like on in the DS, and let the DS fill in the rest of the puzzle for you. Remember, the best two tools we have are the SIM MODEL and Domination Station Optimizer.  Make sure utilize these tools to help narrow down the playing field and to aid you in roster construction!  Any questions, feel free to message me in Slack.  I’m usually there all day helping people with any questions or injury updates.

NBA TOTALS

Miami at Charlotte
Miami playing 3 of 4 and in a b2b. This is a brutal matchup for Miami due to schedule. The total for this game is 204 and trending down. There is just nothing appealing about this game. The only piece on Miami I am even interested in is James Johnson. He has a good history vs Charlotte. On the Charlotte side, the piece I want is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. He has been getting 20-25 fd points vs Miami in almost all of his matchups with them and has a slightly above average aDVP. This game could get ugly and he could get some steals/blocks vs a tired Miami team. For the most part, I am staying away from this game as Charlotte is capable of blowing Miami out as they just showed against Washington.
Johnson: Above average aDVP / Decent History
Gilchrist: Above Average aDVP / Decent History

Memphis at Pelicans
The total is trending down and the Grizzlies have tons of injuries. Memphis is also playing 3 games in 4 nights and on a b2b. I’m not interested in the twin towers as I just don’t like their ceilings tonight in this type of game. I’m staying away from the Pelicans, however, there are 2 pieces from Memphis I love tonight. Tyreke Evans weirdly does well on b2b and is in a great aDVP matchup. He also had a dud last night which means his ownership should be down. Dillon Brooks will get all the minutes he can handle today with the injuries. There will be more updates closer to lock due to all the Q tags in this game.
EVANS: Above Average aDVP matchup. Insane Usage.
Brooks: All the minutes he can handle at a low salary. There is merit to fading him at his elevated ownership. He’s thrown up tons of duds this year.

Milwaukee at Philadelphia
Stack Stack Stack! My favorite game on the slate! Giannis and Brogdon are out. Bayless and Redick are out! Middleton and Bledsoe will get all the minutes they can handle. Sterling Brown and Delladova are good punt plays tonight. Minnesota cannot handle dominant big men so fire up Embiid. Simmons price has gone down so he is in play as well. McConnell should see 30+ minutes and TLC should see around 20+ as in a great punt play.
BLEDSOE: Huge upside with Giannis out.
MIDDLETON: Huge upside with Giannis out.
EMBIID: Milwaukee struggles vs Centers. 60+ upside.
Simmons: Price is down and should get plenty of assists.
McConnell: Uptick in minutes and has 30+ point upside.
Delladova/Brown/TLC: All Candidates for 20+ minutes at min price.

Golden State at Houston
Highest total on the board at 234.5 These teams just played but Durant and Harden were out. Harden will be on a loose minute restriction of 30. I could see it going slightly over, but he hasn’t done extremely well vs GS as of late so I can’t play him with that looming restriction. I will be waiting for one more game for Harden. There are so many pieces in this game that you could easily roster, but everyone is priced up so I do not see stacking this game as viable. I wouldn’t be surprised if Golden State runs away from this game. The biggest piece I want from Golden State is Draymond Green. He is a triple-double threat against Houston. His upside is 60+. The only piece I want from Houston is Eric Gordon. I do think Harden will try to do too much and with his Hamstring, I noticed in his last game he just didn’t have much spring in his step. I don’t want curry vs CP3 defense.
GREEN: Triple Double Upside
Gordon: He will be needed to keep this game close.

Toronto at Minnesota
The total on this game is 215 but it is trending down. Toronto is playing 3 games in 4 nights and on a b2b. Both teams are very good at defense. There is absolutely no reason this total should be at 215. I see this game going way under. OG Defense will be on Jimmy Butler. He is a very, very good defender. Butler will be on DeRozan. Towns is the only guy I remotely like in this game.
Towns: Last few games Toronto has struggled vs Centers.

Clippers at Utah
The total on this game is 212.5 and trending down. Rudy Gobert should be playing and looks pretty good. He still will have a minute restriction of around 27. I have no issue rostering him at 6500 as he can fill up the stat sheet quickly. Pairing Rubio up with Gobert is not a bad idea. Don’t get me wrong, playing Rubio isn’t fun but he has been fairly consistent lately and his price is fair. Anything that helps him get assists I am all for it. Montrez Harrell and Tyrone Wallace are the only two clippers I have interest in.
Rubio: Playing well. Gobert back should help with assists.
Gobert: Big upside with blocks.
Wallace: 30+ mins.
Harrell: Can see up to 30 minutes tonight.

Dallas at Portland
Last game of the night with a total of 209. This is a pace down game but there are some glaring aDVP matchups to attack here. Dallas has started to figure things out a bit on defense, but for a stretch, they were giving up points in droves! You get a point! You get a point! You get a point! Dennis Smith JR cannot guard anyone to save his life. Hello Damian Lillard! Dirk Nowitzki will be matched up for Aminu at times. Hello Aminu! If you really want to save some salary, you can even go with Evan Turner. For Dallas, the only spot I like at all is Harrison Barnes. He has a good aDVP matchup.
LILLARD: 50+ point upside vs DSJ. He’s bad at Defense.
Aminu: Great matchup.
Turner: Salary saving option with great aDVP
Barnes: Great aDVP matchup. Consistent 30-35 fdp.

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