The goal of my articles will be a game by game breakdown, and listing the plays I like. If a player is in CAPS, he is someone I love. If he is not in caps, it is a player I am considering. The objective is to teach people how to apply knowledge using our DS optimizer (Exclusive to our VIP Members) I strongly believe most people who play DFS understand the sport they are playing, but it comes down to applying the knowledge they have. Every article I publish will try and steer you in the right direction of who you want to slap an adore/love/like on in the DS, and let the DS fill in the rest of the puzzle for you. Remember, the best two tools we have are the SIM MODEL and Domination Station Optimizer. Make sure utilize these tools to help narrow down the playing field and to aid you in roster construction! Any questions, feel free to message me in Slack. I’m usually there all day helping people with any questions or injury updates.
NBA Implied Team Totals
Boston at Philadelphia
Kyrie is out. Hello Terry Rozier Chalk. This game actually has the worst total, and has been going down since release, by a lot. However, there is a lot of value to be had in this game so you need to grab these pieces. Terry Rozier would normally be priced 5500+ if Fanduel knew Kyrie was going to be out. This is an easy play at 4k, and it would take a miracle for him to hurt you. Just plug him in. He will be getting around 30 minutes. Morris/Smart/Horford all receive nearly 5 percent usage bumps without Kyrie. All are in play. For Philadelphia, everyone will be flocking to TJ McConnell after his last game and Redick is out. He is a great play tonight, and will be highly owned. A pivot to McConnell and GPP only is Bayless who is Min Price on FD. I won’t be touching Ben Simmons tonight vs Marcus Smart defense. Embiid has monster usage at 38.5 percent without Redick. He will dominate Baynes or Horford. However, Boston will play solid team Defense on him, and I could see a lot of double teams. For that reason, I have a hard time wanting him to be my top center and being able to hit value tonight.
ROZIER: Cash Game Lock for me on FD. Nuff Said.
MCCONNELL: Going to see 30+ minutes without Redick and will easily hit value tonight
Smart: Usage bump.
Morris: Usage Bump
Bayless: GPP only. MinutesUp Situation. I currently have him at 32 minutes. Min Price.
Orlando at Cleveland
Cleveland has the highest implied total of the evening, and this game itself has the highest total. The oldest team in the NBA, Cleveland, has 2 days rest going into this game. On 2 days rest, they have gone over the total 8 out of the 13 times. We like that. Vegas is predicting that Cleveland should run away with it here at -11. However, public and sharp money have been coming in on Orlando. These two teams have matched up before and Orlando blew Cleveland out, and the other game Cleveland won 131-127. We like that. We like that a lot. This game should hit or go over the total, and I see Orlando keeping it close as Cleveland has not been playing well. They are 2-8 in their last 10. To top it off, the last 3 games Cleveland is the 6th worst in 3 point defense. If Orlando can hit their open 3s, this game will stay close. With all that said, we want some pieces here. Lebron James is your obvious first look, and he did just post 76 Fanduel against this same Orlando team. Thomas is reasonably priced, and we just saw him play without a minute restriction. He is in a great aDvP matchup, and has a 30% usage rate. He checks all the boxes. I do not like Kevin Love tonight. I can’t even count how many times I saw IT refuse to pass to him last game when he was wide open. One time Love was jumping up and down and IT just did a few circles in the paint then took a jumper from the free throw line. Orlando also is allowing opponents to shoot only 27% from 3 point their last 3 games which also hurts Love. For Orlando, Payton has been under 30 minutes the last 5 of 6 games. He would be a gpp only play for me at his price point. Simmons and Hezonja are in great matchups aDvP wise, so both are in play with Simmons getting more minutes. If Gordon stays aggressive, he can put up 50+ fanduel points and is one of my favorite gpp plays. Fournier coming off a career night. I’ll chase that tonight against Cleveland. No Birch for me tonight. He will give you 10-18 minutes and I just don’t see him repeating the previous performance.
JAMES : James won’t let Cleveland lose tonight, and will pepper the stat sheet
FOURNIER: Off a career night, and I think his hot streak continues tonight.
Thomas: High Usage, Great Matchup.
Simmons: Great aDvP matchup with 30+ minutes. Cheap salary.
Gordon: Favorite GPP play on the board. Boom or Bust play.
Augustin: Could see extended run tonight if Payton plays poorly. GPP only. Pivot off chalk play.
Minnesota at Houston
Ariza and Green are both out tonight for Houston. This game has the 2nd highest total on the board and has been going up since release. Minnesota is 5th worst in opponent 3 point percentage in the last 3 and we know Houston loves to shoot 3 pointers. Unfortunately, two three point shooters for Houston are out. I can’t see rostering Harden on a 25 minute restriction. I don’t play Anderson at Home. This leaves us with CP3 and Gordon. Gordon is my favorite play on Houston. Mbah Moute is going to see all the minutes he can handle tonight and he is min price. I won’t be able to pay up for CP3 tonight. For Minnesota, Mbah Moute will be guarding Butler for a majority of this game, and he is a top defender. Butler will need to get steals and blocks tonight to pay off his price point. He is a cash option only for me tonight. CP3 will be on Teague. No thanks. I like KAT and Wiggins for the Wolves. Sorry Gorgeous Dong, it might be your birthday but you don’t fit into this game plan tonight.
KAT has had 60+ fd points last 4 times against Houston.
GORDON: Plenty of Minutes, 50 point upside
MBAH MOUTE: Min Price. A few steals or blocks and he crushes value.
TOWNS: Dominant Game Log. 60+ each time.
Wiggins: Will see Gordon/Harden defense.
Butler: Consistent with high usage. I like him in cash but don’t like his upside for GPP.
Indiana at Portland
This is my least favorite game on the board. For the most part, any play you want from this game will be GPP only except for two guys I like from Portland. Oladipo always has the chance to go off, but I don’t think this is the game for him. The only possible spot I’d take from Indiana is Cory Joseph if we find out Stephenson is ruled out. This is purely gpp only, and a pivot off the popular point guards. For Portland I love Nurkic. Sabonis is one of the worst defenders in the league, and I think Nurkic will just dominate him, and slow this game down and turn it into the Nurkic show. Aminu is also in a great spot.
NURKIC : Nurka Nurka! Good aDvP. Sabonis is ranked as one of the worst centers at defending.
Aminu: Great aDvP matchup. Can easily get you to 30 with 40 point upside.
Joseph: GPP only! Pivot off chalk play.