In trying to take something positive away from an unprecedented drought in DFS, I spent a restless night in pondering where I have been going wrong and how to correct it. Is it process driven? Game Theory? Bankroll Management? Or all of the above?
A few constants that I have noted:
1.) While I have not taken down a major prize in a mass entry GPP, I have, in most weeks, experienced a positive ROI (especially, in the $8 Hook & the $4 Sprawl)
2.) My greatest success in cash games has been primarily attributed to “sniping” lower dollar ($10 & under) H2H’s
3.) My aversion to “stacking” in cash games has cost me dearly
4.) Is DFS a hobby or a business?
In analyzing 1-4, I can immediately conclude the following:
1.) My Game Theory is above average-good, as referenced by the positive ROI in mass entry GPP’s. I rarely max enter mass entry GPP’s, though perhaps this is a strategy that I should be employing
2.) Sniping in cash games is working. To further define “sniping” = looking for no/low badge players in H2H’s (especially, payers that offer multiple games with no player limits imposed). The same strategy has worked well for me in “Mini-Tournaments” (3-10 player games which are not guaranteed by DK AKA must fill)
3.) While my ratio of cash to GPP’s has improved, I am still a GPP oriented player. Furthermore, I often struggle to find suitable cash games to balance the level of GPP’s, which I will typically play. The aforementioned essentially guarantees a losing week absent winning or placing in a GPP. Also, as a conscious or subconscious GPP player, I have a difficult time commencing a card with a loss, commensurate with a stacking strategy. However, for cash games, I have come to realize that a stacking strategy can work on select fights
4.) Like the vast majority of DFS players, I have a day job. However, when I analyze the relative amount of cash outlays, time commitment and given that MMA is not a seasonal sport, I should be treating this as a business (or at the very least a part time job). My discipline and bankroll management are severely lacking
Debunking the “10x Myth”:
10x = a multiple of 10 applied to a respective fighters salary. I.E. to RDA has a DK Salary of $8,100. To achieve 10x, he would need to score 81-points
First and foremost, if you are playing cash games, an aggregate score of 10x (500-points) in most weeks, will win you all, if not the majority of your cash games. However, again in most weeks, 10x will not be sufficiently to take down (or highly place) in a mass entry GPP and even low player single entry GPP’s.
Mass Entry GPP Strategy:
In most lineups it will be necessary to have 1-2 underdog plays. Because the math is easier, I am going to use $15,000 as the amount of salary attributable to underdog plays. My strategy is to look for a minimum 10x in aggregate for that portion of the salary attributable to underdogs in a given lineup. For the $35,000 in salary that would be attributed to betting line favorites, I would look for a minimum aggregate score of 12x-13x, which would result in a total score of 570-605 (150 + 420/435), which in most weeks will either highly place or take down outright a GPP. One thing to note, is that while it might appear to be counter intuitive, the low entrant/higher dollar GPP’s are typically won with a lower score, as players tend to share high concentrations of the same fighters.
We always use terms like “earning their salary.” If you start to think in terms of point multiples to salary, it will help you be a better player in the long run.