Vegas Odds to the Right Defense
Have you noticed how I talk about building from the bottom up so much? I do it more on twitter when I send out my articles as well as in the kicker’s corner. One of the things I have really not covered is what building from the bottom up can do. I have mentioned how building from the bottom up can help you by forcing you to pick the best option for defense and kicker. It does this by making you think about the pick because you are not worried about the salary.
Another thing that building from the bottom up can do is help make the lineup unique. Building from the bottom helps by forcing the build to be different because you are not starting where everyone else starts. When you start from the bottom your lineup will also be built in a different way. We have had a lot of questions about how to find those lineups that win GPPs. While building from the bottom up will not make your lineup a winner. It can help build your lineup in a different enough way to help you take first.
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A New Approach
Lately, I have been pushing a new idea in Slack. I am going to start sharing that idea outside of Slack to the rest of the DFS community. When I first started on Fanduel I used to play nothing but the 250 man leagues. Those were where I got my start and how I turned $20 deposit 3 years ago into a hobby where I bet a couple hundred every week. Sadly Fanduel did away with the 250 man leagues, but they did leave us a 100 man single entry league.
I put together a small write up explaining how to use those leagues to your advantage. As well as how to build a player pool to aid you in entering multiple lineups. Follow along here for all of the information on how to do all these things.
DFS Army is more than just NFL
If you are still looking for a site where you can talk DFS all day and get advice to help you grow as a player I really hope you check out the DFS Army. We are more than just a place to read articles and get player picks. In Slack Chat we celebrate wins, we give 1 on 1 advice from pros too long time members, and we cover all sports for 1 price. If you are an NFL only player but want to keep the DFS fun going well into 2018 come check us out. Get all of the great NFL help you already want and start learning NBA. Maybe you will be the next member to win 50,000?
Picking the Right Defense
One of the tools we are going to use to help us pick out a solid defense is Vegas. We are going to be looking for teams that are favored to win, the larger the better. Teams that are favored to win produce more points. Teams that are behind late throw the ball more. When a team is throwing the ball more they are more likely to have turnovers, sacks, and give up def scores. We also want teams who are able to pressure the quarterback. This, when combined with teams that are favored, are just going to increase scores. When able to we want to take home teams that are favored as they have a slight edge. I have added some color to our normally boring and all white chart. Now you can see who is getting sacks and which opponents are giving up sacks much easier. You will also see all teams that are favored highlighted in green.
Week 17 Auto-fade.
Week 17 is here and that means we are all done with regular season football. This leads to a few simple rules. There are several teams who are looking to playoffs. They will show up to play week 17 but many will be focused on the next week. These teams can still perform, but it is not going to be worth betting on it. Current fade list: Rams, Eagles, Jacksonville, Stealers, and Chiefs. These are all teams resting starters or playing for very little reason. We also have teams we would normally not want to focus on that become solid plays. These are the teams who have been out of it for a while now but are wanting to show themselves for next year.
New Orleans vs Tampa Bay
NO is fighting for their division. To boot they get to face TB with nothing to play for. I would like this better if NO were at home but we need a team fighting for something and NO gives us that. The real hope for points is going to come from a score though as NO is not a sack heavy team and TB does not give up a lot of sacks. This is all hoping for that pick six.
San Francisco vs Rams
This really does feel backward. SF being picked over the Rams, but this week SF gets to face a resting Rams team. Gurley and Goff will both be sitting out of this game which gives us hope. SF showed a little life last week against Jacksonville and are only priced 4k on FD. This is not a sure thing as the backup Rams could still kick some ass, but I do like the appeal of the 49ers on a discount against backups. The best part about the starters sitting is we know the whole team is looking to next week.
Follow the Vegas Lines
I would like to point out that it is Tuesday and a lot can happen when it comes to Vegas. As sharp money starts to flow the lines will change. For help with the lines on your own join the DFS Army and get in Slack Chat. We will be talking regularly about the changes in lines as the week progresses. A great DFS player is one who adapts to new information comes along.
If you want to talk kickers or defenses hit me up on Twitter @dfsarmypvaaron or in Slack @pvaaron