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I’ve found that DFS hockey is the most similar to baseball. You need correlation in both cash and GPP, pay up for the most reliable production (Goalie, Pitcher) when you can, and everyone’s floor is zero. Sidney Crosby can get you a goose egg, and Mike Trout can go 0-4 with three strike outs and kill your roster. It can happen, and it will happen. Just ride it out with me and you’ll have success.
I play more classic on FanDuel, and still play Pick ‘Em on DK, so when I talk stacks I will focus more on FD. The scoring is similar as far as points being weighted. For cash, you can mix and match pieces from my stacks to create your lineup. For cash I generally only do two forwards and maybe a defenseman for a 3-man stack, but that’s it. In cash, you want pieces of a lot of good scoring options. In GPP you live or die by your line stacks.
You hear a lot of people say “don’t play that guy, he’ll be too high owned.” Forget that nonsense, it is very overrated. Yes, you need some lower owned guy to go off. But if you build a solid team, you’ll have success. It’s highly unlikely that someone will have the exact same team as you. That’s true in all sports!
Without any further ado. Let’s break down tonight’s 11-game slate.
Forwards
For forwards, I focus on higher projected games, generally the top-2 lines on those teams – there will be times when line 3 will be in play it’s rare. Then I look at Corsi numbers, both for and against for that line and the line they will be matched up with for most of the game.
NYI 1: Tavares, Bailey, Lee: They are in a great spot tonight. They are one of the top scoring lines facing a dreadful defensive line in the Jets top line. That line was among the worst in the league when they had Scheifele, now he’s out for the foreseeable future. So, fire up the Islanders tonight. The second line is in play too. Overall, WPG has really improved on the defensive end, however I don’t think they can contain NYI 1. Just something to keep in mind.
EDM 1: McDavid, Lucic, Puljujarvi: The chalk of all chalk tonight for good reason, just play them. Chi cannot get out of their own way. They are coming off a 5-2 loss to Vancouver last night and EDM is a much better team than the Canucks. It was VAN’s second line that caused havoc for the Hawks last night, so maybe if that trend continues throw the EDM 2 in the mix. Overall, I think the top line is the better play though.
COL 1: Rantanen, MacKinnon, Landeskog: Toronto is a wreck defensively and these three play great on their home rink. The Avs have absolutely no depth, so when they score it almost always comes from this line. This is also one of only three games tonight with a six O/U.
**I was all over CAR 1, then I saw Aho was out. I still like them tonight, I just don’t know which line I’m going to use until the new lines are announced**
Honorable Mentions: NSH 1, TB 1-2, CBJ 1, WPG 1-3, DET 1-2, NJ 1, DAL 1, CGY 1-2, EDM 2, NYI 2.
More big wins ho hum
Defense
For defense, I look for floor. The main scoring is going to come from the forwards. By floor, I mean: shots on goal, blocks, points (those are harder to predict) and I want a defense man that gets a lot of ice time on the PP too. Just like in any other sport, you can’t score points if you’re on the bench.
Hanifin: He is one of the best scoring defensemen, he has a very high Corsi For % and he is heating up over the last month. Pitt plays absolutely no defense and I think the Canes are in a terrific spot tonight.
Nurse: I know, shocker, I love an Oiler tonight. They are all in great spots.
Manson: I’m not big on many Ducks tonight but Manson has been very good all season and he’s only getting better.
Honorable Mentions: Giordano, Oesterle, Jones, Sergachev, Lindell, Morrissey
Goalies
Goalies are not the easiest to predict, because just like a pitcher in baseball they can come out flat and once they get off to a rough start some don’t recover. I lean heavily on Vegas when choosing a goalie. Look at the money line and implied team total (ITT). Generally, it is a pay up spot. (This article is coming out before all goalies are confirmed. ALWAYS confirm starters before locking one in)
Goalies have been a royal pain in the balls this season. It seems like the ones with the highest money lines are the ones getting rocked.
“Variance is a fickle bitch”
Talbot: Chicago is at the top of the league in CF/60 but they can’t score and can’t stop anyone. This is the perfect spot for Talbot to make a ton of saves and pick up the win. Lock him into cash and he’s close to a lock for GPP too.
Budaj: Another guy in a great spot. Philly doesn’t shoot nearly as much as Chi so the total points will probably be less but he should also grab the win.
Schneider: Vegas likes this play more than I do. He’s in a good spot, but I’m not how much I trust him, He’s fine for GPP but in cash, I’d use one of the two I just mentioned. Buffalo is a different team on the road, so the win is pretty safe here.
Honorable Mentions: Bobrovsky, Murray
Pick ‘Em
I can’t give away all my plays for free, but I do think the best places to attack are CGY, CBJ and NYI. As always, I’ll have my Pick ‘Em notes in slack closer to lock.
Slack is where the magic happens.
Hope this helps you. Remember join the DFS Army www.Dfsarmy.com/ref/32 and follow me on Twitter @rflynndfs. Let’s make some money tonight!