Welcome to NFL DFS #TheWishbone! Some of you might not even know what a wishbone is, and I’m about to date myself here. The Wishbone, before passing became so prolific, was perhaps the most powerful running formation in all of football. I mean back when grampa played with leather helmets and no face mask to grab. The last vestiges of the Wishbone were finally eradicated somewhere in the 1980s from the Big8 and Southwest conferences, later rebranded the Big12.
The wishbone is a powerhouse formation designed for ground and pound, move the chains, bend over here it comes and we are telling you about it type football. However, within that formation came a ton of options, reads, cutbacks, and even some passing plays. Like DFS, the wishbone was the chalk, but from the wishbone evolved a lot of contrarian plays. Now, that your history is current, and you undoubtedly see where I’m going with this article, let’s “dive” in. (Hopefully, some of you got that last little pun there.)
By the way, my name is @Choppodong (give me a follow out on Twitter) and I am a contributor and coach for the DFS Army. We don’t build lineups for you. Instead, we teach you how to build your own fundamentally competitive lineups. If you are the type of player that takes pride in his/her research, you might be just who we are looking for. In fact, I have another few hundred buddies inside just waiting to meet another player that can bring yet another unique perspective to the group. There is nothing quite like a few hundred like-minded DFSers chatting throughout the week and getting better through groupthink. I promise nothing else you’ve experienced compares.
Week 14 in Review
You have likely seen enough winning in the videos and scrolling screenshots. I will provide you two links if you like deconstructing winning lineups to see what you can’t glean from their wisdom. The first is Deconstructing a DFS Army Member’s $150,000 Winning Lineup on Fanduel. The other is Deconstructing the KOTB qualifier on Draftkings. Both used set gameplans to craft their lineups leading them to victory.
Let’s jump right into week 15!!
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Week 15 DFS NFL Vegas Odds Table
We can talk about a lot of things, but when it comes to the NFL, I like keeping things simple at first. Implied columns are the individual team’s implied total. The favorite is obviously the favored team in Vegas. The underdog is obviously the underdog. And, the spread is the point differential Vegas feels the final score will display. We use all of these parameters to predict game scripts and prioritize the games we plan to attack for the upcoming week.
A large spread often indicates the favored team will be winning by a comfortable margin as the game nears the end. We can use this to predict a running back’s usage in the 4th quarter, or even earlier. A high implied total can indicate several touchdowns to be spread around amongst the key players. And, when both teams have a high implied total, but the spread is small, it can indicate a possible shootout with the offenses just going back and forth allowing our DFS NFL players to feast on points like Amazon piranhas surrounding a capybara. Generally speaking, we are attracted to the green and leery of the red in this graphic.
Watch: GPP vs Cash Lineup Building
NFL Week 15 Game Spotlights
LAR @ SEA
Big game for these division foes. Both offenses seem to be working and both defenses (when SEA is at home) can shut big offenses down. With the close spread and the higher implied total, Vegas believes this is a game to watch. I tend to agree from both a fan and DFS player perspective. Both QBs, RBs, a few pass catchers are in play here. If you play cash formats, you likely temper your exposure a little here. But, if you play GPPs, this game makes for a decent game stack on both sides.
PIT @ NEP
Full on shootout warning in Foxboro. Huge total on this game and a close spread indicates we should see scoring often and all game long. We’ll see if it pans out because both of these teams have competent defenses, as well. Chalk lovers will be all over parts of this game, so I wouldn’t advocate a complete fade outside of the larger GPPs. The major drawback in this one is the prices on these players. You are going to be hard-pressed to find value here.
You know, the world of DFS NFL is heading towards computer algorithms and optimizers. If you aren’t using one, you are now at a disadvantage in certain contests. I want to show you ours through a tutorial video we put together. DFS Army has invested heavily in giving you not only the coaching to be great, but also the tools, stats, content, and even the optimizer. Fully customizable, the Domination Station (click link for tutorial video) has produced big wins in every sport due to our own Army projection system. From there, you can plug in a few players you like or simply let the optimizer run you off 150 lineups. The choice is completely yours as to how you run this dragster of a computer algorithm set up to propel you across any finish line. To unlock this beautiful piece of machinery, use the coupon code CHOP when you sign up. CHOP gives you a 10% discount for the life of your membership no matter what our rates do in the future. You are locked in at your original price!!
I hope you took the time to read the deconstruction articles of our members’ bigger wins this year. NBA is no different. The Army is for real, and it’s serving notice all over the DFS industry. Follow this link right now and start the VIP process immediately……. DFS ARMY VIP.
Chop’s NFL Chalk Talk
Click here to see how I build most of my NFL lineups in 30 min or less….“Bottom Up” Lineup Building Advice
QB – Usually a rather spread out position for ownership, it’s difficult to find the true chalk here. With such an even point distribution across most of the position, the choices are just so wide open most weeks.
Russell Wilson – While we might not like paying up, the public doesn’t mind it. Russ will be popular with all the workload the Seahawks have put on him coupled with the Vegas implied total on this game. While his legs provide a solid floor, they also provide his ceiling when he rushes in a TD for himself. Not a fan of the matchup on paper, but we also said that of the PHI/LAR matchup last week and we saw what happened. Matchup is not the end-all be-all. Talent supercedes matchup every day of the week.
Nick Foles – While it’s a shame Wentz went down with the ACL, it really opens the door to a cheap QB assuming the lead role. Foles is certainly a downgrade, but Vegas doesn’t seem to think it’s a big one as the point spread in this game only dropped from 9 to 7 points in favor of the Eagles. When a “poor” QB can score 20 points in the right matchups, it behooves you to pay down when/where it makes sense. This is one of those weeks.
RB – While I like to assume Leveon Bell is a standard chalk play, he hasn’t been as consistent this year. Let’s talk about some others most weeks.
LeVeon Bell – Well, we’re going to do this again. The way he’s playing is serving notice he’s back to his consistent ways. I’m going to keep mentioning LevBell until he burns us because I want you to see why he is in the header of this section. We haven’t seen it until about 4 weeks ago, but now it’s time to simply beat the horse dead. Bell is the best RB on the slate week in and week out. For your cash games, he’s just a lock with the advantage he gives you over the field even at his high price. This week is no different.
Kenyan Drake – Drake is your pay down option this week. 23 and 25 carries the past two weeks and a few targets sprinkled in is exactly what we look for in a RB regardless of price. Add in his sub-7k salary and he’s a nice value play. Now, give me one of the worst defenses vs the run and we add in a great matchup, too. Easy chalk play.
WR – On FanDuel, you should be focusing on touchdowns and red zone work. On DraftKings, we can favor reception volume more.
Antonio Brown – I don’t mention Antonio often because, while chalky, the RB spot is just more important to your cash builds. You can often find similar ceilings for far less money at WR. You, however, can’t argue AB’s floor. He’s the only consistent WR there is, and it does make sense to pay up to lock in those consistent points. You just can’t often do it while playing two higher priced, higher floor RBs in a lineup. Good news, this week is not one of those weeks. You can play both Bell and Brown for the first time in a long time, and likely do so comfortably on Fanduel.
Adam Thielen – How can you argue this guy’s consistency this year? If you look at his game log, it’s hard to find a more dependable WR across the whole season. Folks, that’s not suddenly going to stop. The Vikes look to him early, often, all game long. Thielen has a very hard floor of between 5 and 8 receptions on double digit targets most weeks. The trick is what does he do with them? CIN isn’t a monster defense vs WRs this year, so odds are Thielen produces. He will certainly get the looks.
Dede Westbrook – It may finally be time to look into the preseason phenom of Dede Westbrook. There aren’t a lot of options for the Jags passing game. Westbrook has been consistent, while not spectacular, over the last three weeks grabbing around 6 catches on near 10 targets. That’s all we can ask for in a sub-6k player. Another great option for saving cap space to get both Brown and Bell in your lineup.
TE – Perhaps the most volatile of the NFL skilled positions, knowing some chalk here becomes quite important.
Travis Kelce – For the position, Kelce nearly needs to slide up into the header as “playable every week.” Very high floor at a volatile position, and he takes a small salary decrease this week. I don’t mind locking him into your cash lineups at all.
Jack Doyle – Could it be these two TEs just get run out there every week they aren’t in horrid matchups? It might be what we are dealing with again this week. Pay up for Kelce, or down somewhat for Doyle, either way you are setting yourself up for a decent floor and shots at multiple TDs if things break right for you. I will bury an honorable mention in here for the savvy. Ben Watson is facing CLE this week, and is priced comfortably on Fanduel at $4900. Honestly, that’s also worth taking a shot or four on.
DST – Another volatile NFL position, but chalk emerges more predictably most weeks.
I’m going to make this simple on you. Jacksonville is the best defense in the league; however, they are going to cost you your first born at $5900. Still a very good defensive play, though. Others to consider are found looking at the huge spreads this week. New Orleans ($4600) and Minnesota ($4800) are your others. Don’t overthink this one. Simply construct your roster and save defense for last. Plug in the price that fits at the end. If you don’t get JAX, oh well. If you have to take NOLA, oh well. This isn’t rocket science. Your best bet at hitting value for your defense is to take the huge favorites facing teams implied to score under 16 points. All three defenses apply here.
I will add, don’t even tag me in slack with other defenses. I am only going to repeat these three teams to you. Looking elsewhere is getting too cute and should be saved for your larger GPPs only. Any other format, just eat the chalk and play these three.
K – I don’t cover a lot of kickers. My default criteria for them is very simple, however.
Home teams, high totals, big spreads and the lowest price among all kickers matching these criteria. Don’t overthink kicking. It really can be that simple.
The Fine Print
Disclaimer – As will all my writing, my job is to put you on the popular plays….the sound plays. From there, you can determine for yourself where and when to get off them. I am a better cash player than GPP player; therefore, you can easily use my chalk plays to find similar, but lower owned, plays for yourself. And, you can also use me to help you learn the fundamentals if you are just starting out. The cash players are often highly owned. They are highly owned for a reason…they are in the best spots, the obvious spots. When you graduate from my school of the obvious, you are ready to ask Keith, Al, the Geek, Donuts, and our other coaches for their opinions on more sophisticated endeavors. But, you can only do so as a VIP. Our Slack chat forum is where the magic happens, and it’s where these coaches live!!
Come back next week because we will break this all down again. Don’t forget to use code CHOP for your discount when signing up at DFSArmy.com to unlock your 10% discount. And, don’t forget to give me a follow out on Twitter via the link back at the top. I am usually trying to foster discussion out there, too.