Steelers (-10) vs Texans O/U 45.5
Lucky us, we get a two game slate on Christmas with two heavily favored teams…. These short slates with heavy favorites are always tough because all of the ownership will go to the teams that are projected to win. The way I will attack this short slate is by throwing a handful of lineups into the $8 tournament with a prize pool of $800,000. The obvious play in this game is Le’Veon Bell even at his expensive price tag of 9.9k on DraftKings. He is just too good not to use so we might as well eat the ~95% ownership and make this slate come down to the other 8 positions on DK. It is worth throwing in 1 or 2 lineups without Bell just in case he gets injured on the first drive and kills those 95% of lineups right out of the gate. I don’t have much interest in the RB on the other side of the ball. I expect the Texans to be playing from behind so I think Lamar Miller will have a limited role in this game and I still expect his ownership to be around the ~50% range. I think I will just pair the Steelers DST with Bell in the majority of my lineups and figure the rest out from there. The next best play in this game is Deandre Hopkins. He has been money all year long in DK and I expect him to have another solid game here against the Steelers. As I mentioned, I think the Texans will be playing from behind so Hopkins should get his usual crazy amount of targets and he always seems to turn those into big fantasy numbers. It will be hard to get Bell and Hopkins into your lineups because of their price tags but if you go with 2 TEs it is definitely possible. If you want to get contrarian and avoid Hopkins high ownership you can go to Will Fuller and hope for a long TD or two to separate you from the field. Stephan Anderson is another guy I like from this Texans team if I am going with the two TE approach to fit in Bell and Hopkins, and Jesse James from the Steelers can be that 2nd TE in your lineup to save the salary. I prefer Juju Smith-Schuster over Martavis Bryant but with Antonio Brown injured and out of this game they should both get their fair share of targets. I expect JuJu to be higher owned of the two so a pivot to Bryant could be sharp in these big GPP tournaments. Aside from those guys Ben Roethlisberger is the only other guy I have much interest in but I would prefer to use a QB from the night game instead of either QB in this one.
Raiders vs Eagles (-10) O/U 47
This game has a lot of options and I think if I am making 10 lineups I want a QB from this game in about 8 of those lineups. My preferred play is Nick Foles but I like Derek Carr as well. If the Raiders are playing from behind like the Vegas line says they will be then Carr could be the sneaky less owned play here because he will have to throw the ball a lot to catch up. He has not looked very good this year though and Foles has the chance to take this Eagles team deep into the playoffs, so that is why I prefer Foles here. The Raiders have allowed a QB to score over 25 fantasy points against them in 5 games this year and I think Foles has a pretty decent shot of making that 6 this Monday night. The Eagles RBs are going to be an important part of winning tournaments on this small slate in my opinion. I think most of the field will be going to Jay Ajayi so I might want to save some money here and go with LeGarrette Blount or Corey Clement here instead. Not only am I saving money with either of those guys but I am also differentiating my lineup from the ~65% of lineups that will have Ajayi. If Blount or Clement can steal a TD away from Ajayi then this strategy should pay off but we will need some luck on our side for it to actually happen since Ajayi will see the majority of the RB workload. I also don’t hate a play on Marshawn Lynch here either but in general I do not like taking road RBs who are double digit underdogs. Amari Cooper is looking like he is expected to play in this game so I think we can get him at a low ownership thanks to the Q (questionable) next to his name on DK. I think Alshon Jeffrey, Nelson Agholor, and Michael Crabtree are all better plays at WR in this game but on a two game slate you have to be different and getting a talent like Amari Cooper at low ownership could be very beneficial. I like pairing Foles with two or three of his weapons in this game and bringing it back with Cooper and possibly Jared Cook if you can afford it in your salary. I think this game has a chance of being a shootout so this is where I would prefer to load up if I can. Ideally I would use Bell and the Steelers DST in the first game and use my other spots in this game with the majority of my lineups. There are many different ways you can stack this game up and I plan on trying out a good number of them.
I hope to see some DFS Army members at the top of the leaderboards on this two game slate and I hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas!