I was in a conversation in our VIP Only slack forum today, and the topic of variance came up. A member mentioned he struggles with variance. He mentioned it makes him doubt himself and change things when he would be better off just staying the course and trusting his process. Well, he’s right.
Here was the response, and just a snip of what you get as a VIP in the DFS Army. If this is the discussion you like, or need, we are looking for you. We want to make you a better DFS player. Stop frustrating yourself and build a process on which you can rely.
Dealing with Variance in DFS
VIP Member [9:09 AM]
One area I need to discipline myself is patience with losing streaks. If I get on a 2-3 day streak of losing or breaking even, it’s tempting to want to go somewhere else or try something else. Only to see if I would have stuck to my process, I would have capitalized.
I went back and looked at a video you did on contest selection in baseball…that date referenced was 7/28/17. I had a lineup over 200 on FD and played only 50/50 and DU. If you ever needed a ladder it’s baseball to help carry you through the variance.
choppodong-eatschalk [9:18 AM]
i often argue with the variance in mlb and nhl, you dont even need to ladder…….or at least you raise your base. instead of 5050s, you can use triples or 10man leagues. its not a huge deal, but on limited bankrolls, it doesn’t bust a few bucks at a time when Trout goes 0-for and/or your stud pitcher implodes.
One thing about losing streaks I reference a lot………….my former golf game.
I used to get into funks constantly back when i played every day. i would tinker with something that felt off, then tinker with something else. before long, i was all fucked up and so far off the fundamentals my swing had devolved to shit and was not nearly as repeatable as it should be. what is needed at that point…………..is a long break. i had to lose the memory of the bad habits i was creating with all the tweaking. i had to get back to basics. my muscle memory was ingrained. i just had to cut the fluff and get back to it and build from there.
What’s a Ladder? – See video and article here.
so, i’d take 2 weeks off. it killed me because i love the game and want nothing more than to wake up and play 18……or hit a couple buckets. but, it was necessary to reset the system. it worked every time. i’d come back, tee up on #1 and be all “i have no feel. i have rust. i have no idea where this little fucker is going.” but, i had to trust my swing and focus on feeling the basics again. boom…….usually came out having a great tee to green game. it was the short shit that would show the rust. the full swings were fine. then, i could build from there again.
variance in dfs is no different. if you dont trust the fundamentals, its very easy to get all fucked up and mess with this concept or that one. before you know it, you’ve lost your fundamentals and are honestly just lost.
so, from there, either take a break, play very light for a bit, or just read your ass off regarding fundamental play again. go back to google (or our strat section) and read all the tips of winning cash games or gpps or whatever. reread the ladder article. these serve to reset your system.
if your fundamentals haven’t changed, no big deal………….its variance. if they have, big deal………..its you. good news is both are easy to fix.
but at least you gain direction on what to work on. weathering a storm or going back to fundamentals.
The Flip Side to Learning Variance
poker is a little different right now. i’m learning PLO. i’m the fish at those tables right now. but, i’m studying, learning and quickly improving. however, i have no faith when i learn and implement things because i have no “muscle memory.” i have no fundamentals. so, when variance strikes it’s ridiculously frustrating. i cant just tear things down and start over. i dont know what to do because i’m learning for the first time.
i think that’s where a lot of dfs people in here reside. but, people simply need to dig in and study the fundamentals hard. keep going until you can start answering questions in the main rooms. and, dont sweat it if you can defend your position from logic and what you’ve read. debates often equal growth. that’s the only way you know you are fundamentally sound.
when you get to that point, you can begin to place faith in yourself and your fundamentals. you will realize you dont have to sweat the 3 day losing streak because it’s most likely variance…………since you have the fundamentals firmly in place. it’s yet another reason being a year-round member here is so helpful to one’s overall game. you are constantly refreshing, growing, helping, debating, explaining, etc. it keeps the fundamentals in place. and, you will be shocked at how dumb your friends are when next year’s nfl draft rolls around. you will have learned so much that things seem obvious. they will spout off and you will just laugh under your breath. i promise.
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