Here is your weekly sharp line analysis for week 15.
NYJ @ NO
The Saints opened as 14.5 pt favorites, and understandably so; but the line has jumped to 16.5. The total dropped a half point to 46.5. There are multiple betting trends that are going in their favor, too. When they open as double digit favorites they are 5-1 against the spread (ATS) and 6-0 on the ‘OVER’.
DFS Takeaway: Show the Saints some love in all aspects of the game. Remember what @dfsndonuts says about leverage plays. I am going to have this game a couple ways
ARI @ WAS
The total has plummeted from 42.5 to 40.
DFS Takeaway: It is a bit of a downgrade to the offenses. The line has stayed static at WAS -4, so the Implied Team Total (ITT) is 22 for WAS and 18 for ARI. The defenses get a little boost with Washington getting the better end of the deal.
CIN @ MIN
Cincy comes into Minnesota as 12.5 pt dogs after they opened getting 10 points. The total has gone up from 41.5 to 42.5.
DFS Takeaway: This is a pretty decent downgrade to the Cincy offense and a solid boost to Vikings, on both sides of the ball.
GB @ CAR
The total has gone up from 45.5 to 47.
DFS Takeaway: The rise is likely due to Rodgers coming back but GB, who has had a bad defense already, has a couple key injuries on that side of the ball. It’s a boost to both offenses and hopefully we get some fireworks.
BAL @ CLE
The Browns are getting some love from the sharps. The line opened as BAL -7.5 and even though it has only come down to BAL -7, it still stands as one of Vegas’s riskier prospects on the weekend. The total has gone up from 40 to 42.
DFS Takeaway: This is always an emotionally charged matchup. It has that play to the OVER feel. Given that, the offenses get a little boost and the defenses get downgraded a little. Obviously, Baltimore is a little more trustworthy. Sneaky spot in GPPs for the Browns offense maybe.
PHI @ NYG
If you have been following along this season you will know that I like the road system betting trend that says a game goes OVER where the visiting team is playing their 3rd consecutive road game. This is the first of 2 this week. That system hits the OVER 2/3rds of the time, btw. Further to that, sharps are in on Giants this week. The line opened as NYG +8 and they are now +7.5. The public is still all over the Eagles so this could be a chance to differentiate. I am seeing big money moves being made in NY’s favor as I write. The Philly moneyline just dropped 30 points.
DFS Takeaway: Vegas has only moved the total from 40 to 40.5. This could be a nice GPP spot with the OVER and a new QB in play, if you are daring.
That’s a wrap for this edition. Good luck, Army!