Before we begin, let’s give a big ??????????????????????????? to one of our own, Konrad Myrick, for his massive $104,228 cash out on FanDuel Monday night.
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POINT GUARDS:
Russell Westbrook (OKC vs GS)
In my opinion, he is the best use of your salary cap tonight. With all the hoopla surrounding KD’s return, Westbrook will be ramped up to go. Last season the Warriors dominated this matchup, but OKC has a lot more ammunition to counteract this time around… and blowouts are what limited Westbrook in two of those.
Eric Bledsoe (MIL @ PHX)
PHX allowing *most FPPG to PGs, 2nd-most FPPG overall… Bledsoe has all the revenge narrative in the world, but everyone else knows that – expect the ownership levels to be massive, for good reason. He has exceeded 6x value (at current FanDuel price) twice in the last three games and has all the upside in the world tonight with The Greek out of the lineup.
John Wall (WSH @ CHA)
DraftKings only, where Wall’s price is under $9K for the first time in forever. Also, when looking at the DvP numbers you’ll see that CHA has been pretty good against PGs – Howevahhhhh, in looking at our aDvP (Adjusted Defense vs Position) numbers, CHA is actually allowing the 4th-most to PGs.
Kyle Lowry (TOR @ NYK)
With opposing bigs having trouble down low vs NYK, that offense has to get funneled to the backcourt. Look for Lowry to get busy in a fantastic matchup.
Spencer Dinwiddie (BKN @ CLE)
CLE allowing 7th-most FPPG to PGs… No one believes Dinwiddie’s price should be this high but it’s hard to argue with the production over these last three games without D’Angelo Russell. Earlier this season, Dinwiddie had a breakout game vs CLE.
Jeff Teague (MIN vs ORL)
ORL allowing 9th-most FPPG to PGs… Teague has been fairly consistent this season and gets a little bit of a plus-pace matchup vs ORL who ranks 6th in that regard.
George Hill/De’Aaron Fox (SAC vs LAL)
LAL allowing 6th-most FPPG to PGs… It’s our first look at the Fox-Ball matchup (NBA version), but Hill has been the one playing a ton of minutes lately.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
James Harden (HOU vs DEN)
DEN allowing 8th-most FPPG to PGs… Harden has been crushing the Nuggets (pun intended) for quite some time now…
Lou Williams (LAC @ ATL)
Without Patrick Beverley in the lineup, Sweet Lou’s name now becomes Chalkiddy McChalkerson… especially at $5400 on FanDuel. This matchup vs ATL is way too good to pass up on.
Khris Middleton (MIL @ PHX)
PHX allowing 4th-most FPPG to SGs… The Greek will miss tonight’s game and when you look at the usage for Middleton when Greek, Dellavedova, Henson and Teletovic are all off the court it jumps to 40%.
Will Barton (DEN @ HOU)
Barton has seen the most minutes (294) with Paul Millsap off the court – that has only translated to a 22.8% usage rate, but Barton went bananas (25 points/6 rebounds/5 assists – 37.7 FDP) in the first game of the post-Millsap era over 36 minutes.
JJ Redick (PHI vs POR)
No one realizes what Redick is doing and that’s fine by me… At least 29 minutes in nine-straight games while reaching 5x value (at current FanDuel price) in seven of those.
Marco Belinelli (ATL vs LAC)
5x value in five of the last six games… and he’s only $3900 on FD.
SMALL FORWARDS:
LeBron James (CLE vs BKN)
BKN allowing *most FPPG overall, 2nd-most to PGs – LeBron will find himself there most of the game. At his current price on FanDuel, LeBron has only hit 5x once in this matchup vs BKN since rejoining the Cavs, and that was earlier this season – that game was down to the wire so it’s a good indication of how well he could possibly do in this matchup.
Paul George (OKC vs GS)
5x value in four of the last five games.
Kyle Anderson (SA @ NOLA)
NOLA allowing 2nd-most FPPG to opposing SFs… Still affordable, and has played at least 30 minutes in four of the last six games, while reaching 5x value (at his current price) in five of those/6x in three of them.
Wilson Chandler (DEN @ HOU)
Upgraded to probable today, Chandler will likely see more minutes/usage at PF while Millsap is out of the lineup.
DeMarre Carroll/Allen Crabbe (BKN @ CLE)
Both players have benefitted greatly from the absence of D’Angelo Russell and CLE has been getting torched by wings all season.
Wesley Johnson (LAC @ ATL)
ATL allowing *most FPPG to opposing SFs… Even with getting limited to 25 last game, Johnson reached at least 5x value on FanDuel for the third-straight game.
POWER FORWARDS:
Ben Simmons (PHI vs POR)
Consistency, consistency… and some more consistency.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA @ NOLA)
As I said on the podcast today, I’ve noticed teams relying heavily on their bigs more than usual against NOLA… duh, why wouldn’t they? The point here is that LMA will get plenty of minutes, and that is a situation that has yielded safe results for his owners. I’m not in love with LMA’s upside, but I do love that safety of being somewhere in the vicinity.
Kristaps Porzingis (NYK vs TOR)
KP does his best work at MSG, where he averages 46.2 DKP/46 FDP as opposed to 36.2 DKP/35.8 FDP on the road.
Carmelo Anthony (OKC vs GS)
Some might worry that Melo will draw a matchup with Dray, and he will, but it won’t be for the whole night. I’m usually at the back of the “Pro-Melo” line but his consistency this season has even made me take notice. When you look at the upper echelon of PFs on this slate, it’s within reason for all of them to hit value and not necessarily have a ton of upside… Melo can do that too, at a fraction of the cost.
John Collins (ATL vs LAC)
Projections across the industry are CRAZY about Collins after he played a career-high 36 minutes last game vs SA and scored 21 (real) points, also a career-high. Collins becomes a lot more appealing if Luke Babbitt doesn’t suit up tonight.
Zach Randolph (SAC vs LAL)
Z-Bo should have no trouble dominating down low against the Lakers’ weak interior defense. According to our aDvP rankings, LAL is allowing the 3rd-most FPPG to PFs and 4th-most to PF/C hybrids.
Kenneth Faried/Trey Lyles (DEN @ HOU)
Fool me once, shame on me… But I didn’t play either one on Monday night, so I’m basically oblivious to this whole thing. It looks like Chandler is going to get the first crack at PF, but if he falters or has that nagging back injury arise, these guys will be there to pounce on his minutes… GPP only because of that!
CENTERS:
Joel Embiid (PHI vs POR)
Yes, POR has allowed the fewest FPPG to centers, but you have to look closer into who they have played. The only similarly-profiled player to Embiid on that list is Boogie, and he went for 66.8 DKP/63.1 FDP in his only meeting this season vs POR.
Kevin Love (CLE vs BKN)
BKN allowing *most FPPG to centers… Love is priced accordingly for this matchup and has exceeded or reached salary-based expectations in five of the last seven games.
Nikola Vucevic (ORL @ MIN)
The Vegas line doesn’t look all that appealing for ORL, but Vuc’s direct matchup (Karl-Anthony Towns) is a damn good one – KAT ranks 2nd-worst out of 70 NBA centers so far this season in DRPM… the worst is Tristan Thompson, and he’s been sidelined for a while now.
Dewayne Dedmon (ATL vs LAC)
Had to do a double-take when I looked at it, but LAC is allowing the 5th-most FPPG to centers. Dedmon has been incredibly inconsistent this season, but the Vegas line in this game looks very appealing for ATL and that has me at least thinking positive thoughts about him.
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