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POINT GUARDS:
Stephen Curry (GS vs NOLA)
Kevin Durant is out once against for the Warriors and it’s yet another chance to fire up The Chef! Granted, the Warriors are in back-end B2B mode, but they kicked some ass last night and don’t have to travel anywhere for this one. I’ve talked about it a lot recently, but teams like NOLA, with the two big men down low, make their opposition’s offense funnel towards the guards and perimeter players.
Russell Westbrook (OKC @ DAL)
DAL is allowing the 4th-most FPPG (adjusted DvP) to PGs this season and Westbrook has now exceeded salary-based expectations in three-straight games. This is a matchup that Russ has done well in over the last five meetings…
Kyrie Irving (BOS @ IND)
Kyrie has been rockin-and-rollin with at least 30 (real) points in three of the last four games and he’s been a benchmark of consistency… excluding that game vs CHA that nearly broke his face.
TJ McConnell (PHI vs ORL)
No Ben Simmons for the Sixers means McConnell will likely see a ton of time running the offense, he’ll add on to his team-high 130 minutes in this situation. McConnell’s 15.8% usage rate with Simmons off the court doesn’t sound all that appealing, but this guy gets his hands dirty in all aspects of the game. ORL is allowing the most FPPG (adjusted-DvP) to PGs this season.
Tim Frazier (WSH vs POR)
I am not a Frazier fan at all, but I think this could end up working out for one night only. The Blazers will have Pat Connaughton in their starting lineup tonight and that makes for a much better matchup than Lillard or McCollum. He’s the absolute minimum price on FD ($3.6 on DK) and sees, by far, the most minutes (285, next highest 201) of any Wizards player with Wall off the court.
Patty Mills (SA @ CHA)
According to adjusted-DvP, CHA is allowing the 5th-most FPPG to PGs this season. Unfortunately, Mills has been so inconsistent lately, but the highs have been worth the risk.
Terry Rozier (BOS @ IND)
Rozier is actually a borderline caution play for me, even after scoring a season-high 23 points last night; he ended up playing more minutes last night because of Marcus Smart being in foul trouble. If Jaylen Brown misses tonight’s game, then Rozier becomes much more viable.
SHOOTING GUARDS:
Bradley Beal (WSH vs POR)
33.7% usage rate with Wall off the court, scoring 29.1 (real) points per 36 minutes. Whenever Wall is out of the lineup, Beal is one of the safest plays on the board.
Klay Thompson (GS vs NOLA)
Same reasoning as Curry- the two bigs on NOLA should funnel all the Warriors’ offense to the perimeter.
Jeremy Lamb (CHA vs SA)
If Nicolas Batum misses tonight’s game Lamb becomes an easy plug-and-play once again, even in back-end B2B mode. Lamb dropped a season-high 27 (real) points on the Spurs earlier this season in San Antonio.
JJ Redick/Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot (PHI vs ORL)
Redick will see an uptick in every regard while TLC could sneak in a few extra minutes at min-price.
CJ McCollum (POR @ WSH)
According to adjusted-DvP, WSH has been torched by opposing small forwards and that’s an area that McCollum will spend some time in today with Connaughton starting. I doubt I’ll be going down this path, but it is certainly interesting for GPPs.
Marcus Smart (BOS @ IND)
Smart’s production has been very inconsistent of late, but he continues to get around 30 minutes each time out. He will become a lot more viable if Brown misses tonight’s game.
– CAUTION:
James Harden (HOU vs NYK)
Harden has always done well in this matchup against the Knicks, but the question (as always) is whether you need to spend up that much… especially with all the great value at this position tonight. I’m well aware of the “We don’t predict blowouts” moniker attached to the DFS Army, but it’s not my saying and the Rockets are currently 14.5-point favorites in this game – that number couldn’t be pointing to more of an ass-kicking if it had pictures of a boot and an ass next to it.
SMALL FORWARDS:
Omri Casspi (GS vs NOLA)
If they keep him as basically free, we must continue this path.
Robert Covington (PHI vs ORL)
It’s looking like a ton of Sixers will make the list today. ORL is allowing the 5th-most FPPG (adjusted-DvP) to SFs this season and Covington will see an increased role in the offense with Simmons out.
Otto Porter (WSH vs POR)
Not the greatest matchup going up against POR, but Porter will have a lot more responsibility on the offensive end with Wall on the shelf.
Evan Fournier (ORL @ PHI)
PHI is getting torched by perimeter players this season and Fournier has reached salary-based expectations in four of his last five meetings against them. ORL did play last night, but most of their starters got limited run in the blowout.
Bojan Bogdanovic (IND vs BOS)
Much more on his plate offensively with Oladipo out.
Darius Miller (NOLA @ GS)
Very quietly, Miller has now reached upwards of 7x value in each of the last three games.
Semi Ojeleye (BOS @ IND)
His 26 minutes last night were because of the blowout, but things get a bit more intriguing with Morris not playing tonight and Brown listed as questionable.
POWER FORWARDS:
Draymond Green (GS vs NOLA)
He is well-rested after sitting last night and will be needed a ton in this matchup.
LaMarcus Aldridge (SA @ CHA)
In terms of consistency, no one does it better. The Spurs have had two full days off before this game and he’s been able to have a lightened workload in some of the last few games… he’s ready to go tonight.
Dario Saric (PHI vs ORL)
Most people will likely flock to Saric with Simmons out of the lineup, and that’s a fantastic idea. Regardless of who is in or out, it’s still a good matchup for Saric going up against Aaron Gordon who is a mainstay at the bottom of the DRPM rankings.
Jayson Tatum (BOS @ IND)
Tatum will get plenty of action tonight with Morris resting, and he’ll have a fantastic matchup whichever way you look at it… whether that’s at the three against Bojan Bogdanovic or at the four against Thad Young.
Pascal Siakam (TOR @ ATL)
Only played 22 minutes last night so I would imagine he sees more in back-end B2B mode. Prior to last night, Siakam played at least 28 minutes in three-straight games while reaching 6x value in two of those.
Zach Randolph (SAC vs LAC)
Mentioned this before, but SAC will always give Z-Bo a healthy number of minutes against teams with an imposing center. It also helps that Z-Bo is coming off two of the best games of this season and LAC sits the bottom-third of the NBA in adjusted-DvP against both PFs and centers.
John Collins (ATL vs TOR)
Didn’t get much run down the stretch last night, but is well rested for tonight. Collins is probably too expensive on FanDuel, but on DraftKings his price makes him viable.
CENTERS:
Joel Embiid (PHI vs ORL)
In the rare event that Simmons is off the court, Embiid’s usage rate slightly increases to 35.3%. ORL is allowing the 10th-most FPPG to centers this season… Much like McConnel, don’t overanalyze this one.
Al Horford/Aron Baynes (BOS vs IND)
IND allowing 2nd-most FPPG to centers this season… If Baynes gets the start tonight (with Morris resting Brown questionable), I’ll be a lot more intrigued by going this route. He posted a double-double (13 pts/11 reb) in 21 minutes last night. Horford has been falling just shy of salary-based expectations over the last few games, but he was spared some additional minutes in last night’s blowout – had Horford gotten those normal minutes, he would’ve been back on the good foot… officially.
Nikola Vucevic (ORL @ PHI)
PHI is allowing 2nd-most FPPG (adjusted-DvP) to centers this season… Vuc has recently snapped out of a funk, so this is probably the best time to jump on board. Last night in 20 minutes (20 MINUTES), Vuc had a double-double with three steals and one block- good for 39.2 FDP.
Dwight Howard (CHA vs SA)
Bobblehead Night! I’m not all in on this situation since the Hornets are on back-end B2B mode but we know this narrative has produced plenty of results before.
Willie Cauley-Stein (SAC vs LAC)
LAC is allowing 6th-most FPPG (adjusted-DvP) to centers this season… WCS has been amazing, even in limited minutes, over the last four games reaching upwards of 6-7x value in three of those.
– CAUTION:
Thon Maker (MIL @ UTA)
John Henson is probable to return to the Bucks tonight, thus cutting into Maker’s minutes heavily.