PlayDraft Week 8 Aftermath Report – Looking Back to Move Forward
*Reminder this is a focus on Head to Head matchups only. 3m, 6m, 10m, and Dream Team have a different set of strategies.
For this series, we’ll be comparing the top options that we had going into the Sun-Mon slates vs. reality, how it affected our strategies in the previous week, and what it’ll change going forward.
To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)
Also if you’re curious about my KOTB on Draft Kings, check out the break down here: Deconstructing a DFS Army Member’s DraftKings King of the Beach Final Qualifier Lineup
I’ll be the first to admit when I was wrong and this week was one of those. Thankfully, so was everyone else. I ended up splitting my 50 H2H matches right down the middle at 25/25. I’ll chalk that up to the double running back strategy when picking second we talked about last week.
QB Review:
| QB | Projection | Total |
| Tom Brady | 20.99 | 17.52 |
| Dak Prescott | 19.79 | 7.32 |
| Drew Brees | 19.34 | 11.76 |
| Kirk Cousins | 19.19 | 11.52 |
| Carson Wentz | 21.29 | 18.14 |
Our top options we talked about last week even with the weather was Brady and Prescott. However if you were picking second and grabbing Elliot with your first pick, we talked about dropping down to Cousins or Brees. The fun part about draft is generally everyone is on roughly the same player pool, just in a different order. I did not face a Wilson line up, but did run into a number of Wentz. We talked about Wentz not being proven in heavy rain conditions in the NFL as a reason he was lower down the list vs. our solid floor guys in the 3-4 spot. Reasoning makes sense, but game rarely follow stat lines as we saw last week. Still proving to be true through 8 weeks, QB value is very condensed (barring injury) and represents the second best value in this format.
RB Review:
| RB | Projection | Total |
| Bell | 21.27 | 13.1 |
| Elliot | 18.27 | 25.9 |
| McCoy | 19.21 | 26.3 |
| Ingram | 16.8 | 14.9 |
| Hunt | 17.53 | 8.3 |
| Gordon | 16.56 | 20.4 |
In a great example of not all things follow stat lines, Bell was in a premium match up garnishing ~ 34 touches every week. We (along with every other tout this side of the solar system, recommended locking in Bell if you had the first pick. Picking second ended up being ideal going down the double RB fork with Elliot and McCoy which would have won you your draft basically outright if you locked in that combo (and a main reason I was 25/25 this week). Hunt was picked 0/50 times and wasn’t an issue. Ingram took 88% of the share with 12% going to Gordon. Ingram was in a great spot as well in a game where they were projected to be ahead by a lot, at home, in a dome. Again, it didn’t work out this week unfortunately. Consistent again though 8 weeks, RB are where you’re making or breaking your teams this year. We’ll look at availability, match ups, and weather again this Sunday and adjust our strategy as needed.
WR Review:
| WR | Projection | Total |
| Green | 17.01 | 10.2 |
| Evans | 13.23 | 8.5 |
| Brown | 17.77 | 9.5 |
| Jones | 15.01 | 8.9 |
| Baldwin | 13.3 | 8.4 |
| Bryant | 13.52 | NO idea |
The good news is that they were all bad this week. The bad news is if you went with fork two (my preferred fork) and went Elliot/Green when picking second, you had a bad time unless you pivoted to Wentz at QB. These top 5 receivers represented 100% of the picks in my H2H. None of them did particularly well, but the spread between them was only 1.8 points between the bottom to the top. The WR picks this week were a non-factor, which is rare. We’ve seen at least 1 WR being an impact maker on line ups each week.
Week 9 is going to bring a little bit of change with the recent trade deadline, team shake ups, Elliot litigation, and who will benefit in all of these changes. The VIP article as a result will be coming out late this week and pushed back to Sunday morning. As always, @ me in Slack Chat for specific advice beyond H2H match ups. As a side note, I’m working on a NBA primer due out next week for those of you that are jumping into H2H match ups in that sport.
To get the picks and analysis later this week, DFS ARMY VIP MEMBERSHIP – CLICK through here or use promo 20-OFF for 20% off and Bonus VIP entrance into our Slack Chat (28,500+ messages a week)