Like your everyday picks and plays in DFS, your play draft Head to Head matchups are going to follow the same logic. I lock in 50 matchups every week at the $3 slot before I write this article to give you a good idea of who’s being drafted and what to expect
- High scoring totals from explosive offenses
- RB at home have a general advantage
- Game Script
There are two major differences between Snake Drafts and DFS you need to consider:
- There is no need to hunt for value
- Every player you pick represents 20% of your total team, which makes stacking less valuable and correlated than in DFS.
Week 9 brings a recommended strategy shift and a short explanation on why on Play Draft, I wait for the Sunday slate only. This week is a perfect example of anything can happen during the week. The stud, ultra lock QB got hurt in practice (Watson), Elliot some how avoided the court system and is active, and major team shifts came through with trades this week. People who drafted early we’re throwing a tantrum on twitter at PlayDraft because they locked in first picks on Hopkins or Watson, etc. putting them at a significant disadvantage this week. While they can swap out a QB, Hopkins is locked in as 1 of 2 WR.
QB Ranks & Picks:
| QB | Projection |
| Wilson | 21.17 |
| Precott | 20.95 |
| Brees | 51.57 |
It’s the big 3. Outside of these three, Alex Smith was picked 4% of the time (2 drafts). The main driver for trying to get Baldwin first is because you’re going to be targeting the other two games heavily. Baldwin guarantees you a flatter exposure to offenses and games vs the other two. Prescott and Brees are both in good spots + high scoring match ups. We’re expecting a shootout in Dallas which means more offensive drives for DAL putting him #2 on the list. People I drafted against did not agree with me and drafted Brees more often than Prescott
RB:
| RB | Projection |
| Elliot | 20.78 |
| Hunt | 18.47 |
| Gurley | 18.99 |
| Ingram | 16.97 |
| Fournette | 17.53 |
Elliot is the pick to get this week and should always be drafted #1. There was a few instances where Gurely went ahead of Elliot and it’s just going to make my teams that much stronger. Hunt is in a great spot to see a lot of work this week. Like Geek has mentioned, he hasn’t seen a lot of TD action which is a little scary. I’m not worried about it. You can make a case for Gurley being #2 and really they’re so close it’s interchangeable. The back half of the draft with your last RB pick between Ingram and Fournette is a little trickier and really depends on how your team was formulated earlier in the draft. I consider both of them viable for the last pick and don’t have a preference. Players I drafted against favored Fournette higher than Gurley often.
WR:
| WR | Projection |
| M. Thomas | 15.57 |
| Dez | 13.97 |
| Evans | 14.58 |
| Hill | 12.64 |
| Green | 13.87 |
Welcome to the dumpster fire every week with WR. No single WR has had a breakout game. Evans & Green are in terrible spots on paper this week. Thomas has yet to do anything this season. Dez is in a better match up, but it’s really been the Elliot show all season. Evans is finally in a great matchup and if you didn’t grab Hunt, jumps up in value.
Picking First Strategy:
- First pick is Elliot. Head and shoulders the obvious lock in all formats as first pick. After that it depends on what your opponent did.
- If your opponent goes RB/RB, go WR/QB. This will let you grab Thomas and Wilson spreading out your team to three offenses and three different games which is a safer strategy in cash.
- If your opponent goes anything else, RB/QB. WR is significantly projected lower than RB and QB. They’re all in poor spots and unless you’re willing to drop down to lower total games or WR2s in a plus match ups, it’s better to grab a higher quality. Also if you’re going to grab a WR2, you’re nearly guaranteed to get him regardless.
Picking Second Strategy:
I’m fully endorsing the RB/RB this week. Assuming your opponent grabbed Elliot first, lock in Hunt and Gurley imo. This let’s you grab Dez and Brees at the turn and in general Evans as your last pick. Your team ends up being Brees/Hunt/Gurley/Dez/Evans and I’m locked into 10 games (20%) to this exact line up.
Other thoughts:
- If you don’t land Baldwin (usually picking first) Prescott/Elliot isn’t the worse decision on earth.
- I’m less ok with Brees/Thomas, but I do have some exposure to this combo. This leans more towards GPP than anything other combo you might grab.
- Do not go Dak/Elliot/Dez. It doesn’t matter if it ends up working come next week or not, it’s not a safe or smart cash strategy.