We recently had a $53,333 win by a DFS Member on FanDuel. If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
If you didn’t know, we had a huge win in NFL this season too. You can read about that gem in this link!
If you want to read about dozens and dozens of five and six-figure wins, this link is for you!
NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS. The players listed in this column will likely be the core of my player pool each and every night this is published.
*EDIT* With multiple sites listing players at different positions, sometimes the player won’t be in the correct category for this article based on what site you are using.
Guards
Kemba Walker – His 26.2% usage rate and 36.5 FP/Game will likely be higher in Wednesday’s matchup against the Cavs. Kemba shows up big at home and certainly has a superb matchup to give his stats a nice boost.
Mike Conley – His 25.9% usage rate and a matchup against the Pacers makes Conley a great cash game play. He rarely will tank a lineup but doesn’t’ really have the ceiling to win you anything of note.
Patty Mills – The roller coaster that is Patty Mills continues, as he either doesn’t meet value or greatly exceeds it on a nightly basis. He’ a solid large field GPP prospect because of his ceiling and matchup against the wretched defense of the Timberwolves.
George Hill – He came alive last game but his price didn’t increase very much at all on either FanDuel or DraftKings. He remains a large field GPP prospect only as his 0.65 FP/Min is way too low to win you anything outright. That being said, Hill is a better player than that and could see his price rise into the 5k range at some point this season. He’s currently at bargain pricing.
Lonzo Ball – His shooting form is just absolutely atrocious and I firmly believe that as more tape is out on him he’s going to be a huge bust if he can’t fix his shot. The defense won’t respect it and he will be left wide open beyond 10 feet, much like Giannis was a couple season ago.
That being said, he’s a fine DFS target and is priced well on FanDuel. He has a decently high floor and a great ceiling, especially in his matchup against the Sixers.
J.J. Redick – His usage sits at 17.9% and his FP/Game is 24.5 points. He has a decent floor and is a solid cash game target that provides a little salary relief.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Has a really low usage rate of 15.2% but continues to fill up the peripheral stats. The Sixers are wretched against opposing shooting guards and have been bottom three against the shooting guard position.
Kent Bazemore – He continues to deliver for the Hawks and fantasy owners alike. He is a perfect target for our ladder system as he has scored over 22.10 FanDuel points in 12-of-13 games since October 20th. He managed to score 34.50 points in 5 of those games as well. He has a high floor and a solid 45 point ceiling. For whatever reason, his price has fluctuated between 5.0k and 5.9k the entire time. Similar players are priced 700-800 more than him like Eric Gordon and Avery Bradley.
Russell Westbrook – His price is lower than I have seen in years on both FanDuel and DraftKings and his matchup is superb. His floor is low lately but if paying in that price range, how do you not go with Westy over Wall?
Kris Dunn – He is slated to start for the Bulls on Wednesday and has been a great per minute scorer. At almost a point per minute, a 30-minute projection as a starter seems reasonable, which makes his 4.9k price on DraftKings fantastic.
Forwards
Dario Saric – The Sixers are projected to score 111.0 points against the Lakers. Saric has a low 15.9% usage rate and is averaging just 0.71 FP/Min. He is a GPP option only as he has been incredibly inconsistent this season.
Paul George – PG13 has been on fire the past two games, scoring between 57-70 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings in both. He has a superb matchup against the soft Chicago Bulls, and OKC might be without Melo and Adams again. His usage in the past two without them both has been 33.08% and 28.31%. Lock and load.
Taj Gibson – He’s still locked into minutes with the injuries at the PF/C positions. He’s scored 35 and 31 points in the past two games while playing 36 and 39 minutes. He’s priced too low for his current production levels and minutes he’s locked into with the extra minutes being given.
Jerami Grant – With Melo out last game, Grant played 34 minutes and produced nearly 30 fantasy points. He’s priced way too low on DraftKings for his minutes and the team he plays for. He is a very low usage guy but can fill up the peripherals in a hurry. He also has a great matchup against the sloppy Bulls offense.
LaMarcus Aldridge – LMA Continues to be the centerpiece of the Spurs offense. He has scored 43 or more in three of the last four games and has a fantastic floor/ceiling combination. His price should probably be higher than what it is on both FD and DK.
OG Anunoby/C.J. Miles – Both of them played well on Tuesday against the Rockets. Both will likely play the same upper 20’s minutes against the Pelicans. They are great budget options and likely will be decently owned as everyone tries to jam in Westy, AD, Cousins, and Giannis.
Center
Joel Embiid – His price on DraftKings is only $8,000. He has a great matchup against the Lakers and is a fantastic cash game center. His ceiling is strong on DK but there isn’t much wiggle room on FD. If using him for GPPs keep him on DK.
DeMarcus Cousins/Anthony Davis – The pair continue to steamroll opposing big men and they’re playing well together this season. Cousins is a solid pay on FanDuel because his ceiling is so much higher than every other center while Davis is the play on DraftKings because of his 10.5k pricing.
John Henson – He’s priced well on FanDuel but on DraftKings he’s uber cheap. I would look to target the volatile big man, who’s largely dependent on blocks and rebounds and not getting into foul trouble.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
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