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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS. The players listed in this column will likely be the core of my player pool each and every night this is published.
*EDIT* With multiple sites listing players at different positions, sometimes the player won’t be in the correct category for this article based on what site you are using.
Guards
Jrue Holiday – The Pelicans have an implied total (IT) of 113.5 points which is nearly 6.0 points higher than their season average. Holiday is averaging 31.0 FP/Game and has a 19.7% usage rate. Neither of those numbers is special, however, Holiday has fantastic upside nearing 50 fantasy points and remains a great large field GPP option.
Eric Bledsoe – He’s purely a GPP option against the tough defense of the Grizzlies. However, he’s too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings and looks like a solid cash game option. His usage rate and the pieces around him raise his floor – the matchup suppresses his ceiling.
Lonzo Ball – The newest member of the triple-double club has seen his price rise slowly but surely over the first month of the season. The Lakers are implied to score a full 9.0 points more than their season average of 103.5 points. The Lakers are also in a pace-up game against the Suns and Ball has superb upside in a game that should be incredibly fast and sloppy.
John Wall – He’s averaging 44.1 FP/Game and has a 28.7% usage rate. The Wizards IT sits at 110.5 points and Wall should feast on the lowly Sacramento Kings. His price has actually dipped on both FanDuel and DraftKings to a point where he is affordable now for his limited ceiling in the mid-50’s.
Shelvin Mack – He should play in the mid-20’s, minutes-wise, against the Warriors in a pace-up matchup. His price on DraftKings is $3,700 and he offers salary relief to be able to pay up for studs.
Dennis Schroeder – He threw up a dud last game and his price dropped to $7,000 on FanDuel. He’s an elite target for GPPs on Monday as recency bias is hard for DFS players to overcome. Simply due to price and his 29.2% usage rate (second highest at the PG position), Schroeder is absolutely in play.
Donovan Mitchell – He continues to chuck up shots and has a 25.8% usage rate and is now the starting shooting guard for the Jazz. On Monday, the Jazz has a 102.5 IT which is 4.0 above their season-long average. Mitchell is fairly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings but remains an excellent target because of his volume
Devin Booker – His 25.7% usage rate is the third highest at the shooting guard position and he gets to face off with the Lakers on Monday. Booker has an elite ceiling and is a cost-effective option that provides you both with a floor and GPP winning upside.
Lou Williams – I feel much better about using Williams now that his ownership should be much lower on Monday against the Sixers. The Clippers have an IT of 110.0 points and are hemorrhaging points to opposing guards who can shoot the three. Although he is coming off the bench, Williams should play minutes in the upper-20’s and his 25.7% usage rate proves he will have the ball in his hands’ plenty.
Jordan Clarkson – He has a usage rate of 26.3% but only plays 21.0 minutes per game. You really only want to target him in large field GPPs and in fast-paced games. He is a viable GPP option as the Lakers take on Pheonix and are implied to score 9.0 points more than their season average.
Klay Thompson – He’s priced at $6,600 on FanDuel and has elite upside, although he hasn’t been hitting it this year. Still, the Warriors are implied to score 123.0 points and Klay is a great cash game target because of his usage and the offense around him. He’s the perfect SG for our ladder system – safety with an upside.
Forwards
Kevin Durant – A 123.0 point IT and the clear best option at small forward make Durant the premier cash game play at the position on Monday.
T.J. Warren – His price is way too high on FanDuel to play him in anything other than GPPs, especially with how volatile his scoring has been. On DraftKings, his price is much more palpable.
Brandon Ingram – He makes for a fantastic GPP option, especially in a game stack of the Lakers and Suns. He’s averaging 33.5 minutes per game and will be on the court enough to surpass his 26.9 FP/Game average as long as he doesn’t get in foul trouble. The pace of this game is so juicy for GPPs.
Dario Saric – We watched him score 40-plus points seemingly every night last season when his price skyrocketed up to nearly $8,000 on both FD and DK. This season, he’s struggled to get going, however, his shot is starting to fall and he’s been scoring in the upper-20’s for the past couple weeks since he was inserted into the starting lineup. He is very cheap on both sites and makes for a great ladder system target where his floor is boosted by his shot attempts.
Marquese Chriss – It’s too bad he doesn’t play 30-minutes per game because he would be a monster. Chriss is purely a GPP target with his volatile minutes per game and reliance on rebounds and blocks. In a fast-paced game against the Lakers, his athleticism likely will put his minutes a bit higher tonight than usual and he’s still pretty cheap, specifically on FanDuel where we get 3.0 points for each block.
Blake Griffin – The breakout game is coming and his usage should be through the roof without Gallo and Beverley around. He should dominate the matchup against the Sixers and has 55-points upside on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His price hasn’t budged recently even though his situation has drastically improved with more offense flowing through him.
Robert Covington – He’s a superb play in all formats on both sites because of his price and matchup. The Sixers are implied to score 109.0 points and Covington can catch on fire from beyond the three-point line at any moment.
Kristaps Porzingis – He would have scored 70.0 points last game if the Knicks were not winning by 30 points in the third quarter. Yes, you read that right. He has 49 on FanDuel halfway through the third. The Cavs play horrendous defense and continue to have high scoring games. Porzingis could reach 60 in this game.
LeBron James – He let down a lot of people and looked terrible last game. Recency bias makes him a superb play in a game that should highlight Porzingis and LeBron offensively. I am not in love with his price on either site but with D. Rose out again on Monday, LBJ will be relied upon to handle the ball for about 40-minutes in this one if the game stays close.
Center
Joel Embiid – It starts and ends with Embiid at center on Monday for me. He had a terrible game in his last outing which allowed his price to drop. He’s nearly a lock for 40-45 points on both FD and DK and is a superb cash game option.
DeMarcus Cousins – He’s so expensive but his 29.0% usage rate and 1.53 FP/Min and 38.2 Min/Game make him a phenomenal target in every format and every site.
Jusuf Nurkic – He has a tough individual assignment and could get into foul trouble against Nikola Jokic, however, on DraftKings he’s only $7,100. That price tag leaves plenty of upside on the table and makes him a superb GPP play.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
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