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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS. The players listed in this column will likely be the core of my player pool each and every night this is published.
*EDIT* With multiple sites listing players at different positions, sometimes the player won’t be in the correct category for this article based on what site you are using.
Guards
Jordan Clarkson – Clarkson’s price has risen to $5,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel and he no longer is the steal he was for GPPs when his price was in the low $4,000 price range. However, he has a 27.4% usage rate for the season and is averaging 1.10 FP/Min. The Lakers have a 116.0 point implied total which is 12 points higher than their season-long average. Somebody is going to benefit from this pace-up game and higher total and Clarkson’s usage rate means he should have a solid opportunity to put up a fantastic outing.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – KCP scored 32.30 FanDuel points against the Suns on November 13th, which could easily be his floor in Friday’s matchup. He’s put up double-digit shooting attempts in six straight games and has played at least 33-minutes in eight straight games. His price makes him a great cash game play, as well as a GPP play if he’s part of a game stack.
Devin Booker – In his two games against the Lakers this season, Booker has scored 50.20 FanDuel points and 42.30 FanDuel points. His 26.2% usage rate is the third highest at the shooting guard position and he’s averaging 1.04 FP/Min. The Suns are on the second leg of a back to back but that likely will only lower his ownership level and make him a better value.
DeMar Derozan – He’s priced at value which takes him out of GPP territory for me, however, he remains a fantastic cash game option. The Raptors have an implied total of 112.5 points which means a solid fantasy outing is likely inbound. Derozan has had a usage rate over 31.64% in five of the last seven games and has pumped out four games over 41.20 FanDuel points in that span of games.
Jamal Murray – He’s been given a massive minutes bump over the past two games with Gary Harris out with an injury. His usage rate in those two games has been 29.88% and 27.45%. At $4,900 on FanDuel, he’s a massive steal if Harris is out again on Friday.
Donovan Mitchell/Rodney Hood – I will only want to use these two guards if Ricky Rubio is deemed inactive with his ankle injury. Mitchell would instantly become a fantastic cash game option as he would become the primary ball handler, albeit at a crazy ownership level, which is why he’d only be cash viable. Hood would become a great GPP play as he’d likely enter the starting lineup and get a nice usage bump with both Rudy Gobert and Ricky Rubio out. Again, only if Rubio is OUT!
Dennis Smith – He’s a great play on DraftKings because of his $6,000 price tag. He has a 27.4% usage rate and is taking nearly 20-shots per game. I love him for cash games as well as GPPs, as he’s priced in the middle of the elite price range and the punt option price range. This middle-tier is usually under-owned in GPPs because of the popularity of the studs and duds approach.
Forwards
T.J. Warren – He’s been pretty volatile this season which keeps him only in GPP territory for the matchup with the Lakers. He did manage to score 42.60 FanDuel points back in October against the Lakers and then 39.10 FanDuel points in the second matchup on November 13th. The Suns are on a back to back but Warren only played 26 minutes on Thursday. In his past 12 games, Warren’s usage rate has been 23.91% or higher in 11 games. He’s likely a better option on DraftKings than FanDuel because of his price point.
LeBron James – He’s in full on “carry” mode, as his usage rate has been 30.40% or higher in six of the last eight games. He’s also playing at a much faster individual pace which has resulted in LBJ scoring 54.50 FanDuel points or higher in six of those eight games. His price is reasonable on FanDuel but I likely wouldn’t pay the $11,200 price tag on DraftKings. The 114.5 implied total that the Cavaliers have on Friday makes James likely the best overall option for the entire night.
Joe Ingles – He’d be a great option if Rubio is deemed inactive against the Nets. Ingles doesn’t have a very high ceiling but his price tag is very affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If Rubio is out, similar to D. Mitchell and R. Hood, more usage and shot attempts will be up for grabs. The massive pace-up game for the Jazz is getting more delectable by the hour. Pay attention to the Rubio news, it likely will drive ownership up or down in a massive swing for the Jazz players.
Taj Gibson – For as long as the Timberwolves are shorthanded in the frontcourt, Gibson will remain a great cash game option. He is locked into 30-minutes because of injuries and has a solid floor but doesn’t have a high ceiling, which limits his appeal to just cash games.
Blake Griffin – The Clippers have an implied total of 108 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. Blake has a 27.5% usage rate and is averaging 1.14 FP/Min. Over the last five games without Gallo and Beverley, Griffin has had a usage rate of 30.56% or higher. He’s as close to a lock as possible for me on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I love him for our DFS Army ladder system on Friday.
For our VIP members, when we use our ladder strategy (a conceptual investment strategy of how to invest our DFS bankroll weekly and in what contests to do so) we attempt to build our lineups with players that are considered to provide safety with a ceiling. Prescott fits that mold perfectly.
Centers
Kevin Love – The Cavaliers are 6.5 point favorites over the Clippers and Love has a superb matchup. DeAndre Jordan struggles outside of the paint and Love should be able to stretch him out by shooting three’s off James’ kick outs. Love is averaging 1.18 FP/Min and in a competitive high scoring game, we should see Love on the court for 34-36 minutes, which means fantasy point galore for the mid-7k priced center.
Nikola Jokic – He’s been highly volatile this season which has kept him from being cash viable. That being said, he might be the best GPP center option on Friday’s slate. In his past six games, he’s scored over 50 fantasy points three times, including one game over 70. The problem is that in the other three games he scored between 25-35 fantasy points. Eek! The Nuggets have an implied total of 110 points and are 4.5 point favorites. It should be competitive and Jokic should be the focal point of the offense.
Greg Monroe – In his first game with the Suns, Monroe had a 22.05% usage rate and took 14 shot attempts. He finished with over 40 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings and his price tag didn’t budge. He’s going to be incredibly chalky on Friday and for good reason. He’s a solid cash game option but fading that type of ownership in GPPs is the savvy move. The Suns are also on a back to back and Monroe played 26 minutes in Thursday’s game. It was his first game back in nearly three weeks because of his calf injury. It just feels like a trap play.
Derrick Favors – He’s locked into heavy minutes and has a superb matchup against the Nets. On November 11th, just three games ago, Favors went off for nearly 50 fantasy points against the Nets. He’s going to be highly owned and rightfully so. He’s cash viable but I would fade him in GPPs and gladly pay another $1,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Kevin Love, whose ceiling is likely 15-20 points higher.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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