A quick congratulation to member “ccanelho”, who won $53,333.33 on last Thursday’s NBA Main Slate. Congratulations!
If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
If you didn’t know, we had a huge win in NFL this season too. You can read about that gem in this link!
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GPP Data Dive
It seems like the edge that savvy players used to have is starting to dissipate. Newer players have much more material and teachings to learn from and the standard strategies we attacked contests with are all too common.
There is one way we can still hold onto that edge and that is by pivoting off higher owned players for similarly priced players that will be lower owned. If the chalky player duds and a large portion of the field take a big hit in their lineup while your under-owned pivot blows up, you’ll leap the field substantially. Let’s identify those possible GPP pivots and create the edge.
*Most statistics used in this article were acquired via our Research Station which covers a plethora of analytics and metrics used to identify trends and efficiency.
Quarterback
Drew Brees isn’t being talked about around the industry and this is the type of week I would love to play him while he’s low owned. Brees and the Saints will be hosting the struggling Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home when he hasn’t had a huge game in over a month and his ownership will be extremely low.
While many people who jump off of Deshaun Watson and pivot down towards Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott, the future hall of fame quarterback and captain of the Saints will remain low-owned. Surprisingly, even though he’s outside the top 10 in passing attempts (12th), he is fourth in the league in red zone passing attempts (41) and ninth in the league in deep passing attempts (32). There might not be a better time to against the field and go heavy on Drew Brees.
I broke down why Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson are supreme cash game options for Week 9 HERE. That being said, they both make fantastic targets for our Ladder System and small field GPPs. I am sure I’ll receive hundreds of questions in Slack this week inquiring about how to make a lineup with strong correlation using the two of them so I will definitely break both games down in the Stacks on Stacks article that drops on Saturday (members only).
I cannot wait to break down this game in Saturday’s “Stacks on Stacks” article. Look at what we have a member do a couple weeks ago using one of my stacks! For our VIP members, when we use our ladder strategy (a conceptual investment strategy of how to invest our DFS bankroll weekly and in what contests to do so) we attempt to build our lineups with players that are considered to provide safety with a ceiling. Prescott and Wilson both fit that mold perfectly.
Running Back
Kareem Hunt could have some better running lanes this week as two of his linemen are returning from injury in Week 9. He is incredibly talented and has game-breaking ability but hasn’t had the opportunity as of late. This reeks of a game where two offenses go out and just score at will on one another. Hunt is priced very similarly to Todd Gurley, who I fully expect to be the chalkier running back because of his floor and ceiling combination.
In a game that I can see turning into a shootout, especially with Dak Prescott having to air it out and likely running with the football to keep drives alive, the Chiefs and Cowboys game is one that I will target heavily with stacks. I’ll absolutely be breaking down my favorite stacks from this game and it might end up my top targeted game of the week, just like the Seahawks and Texans were in Week 8.
Chris Thompson continues to produce on limited touches. He is a game breaker and can take any touch for a touchdown no matter where he is on the field. He’s relatively cheap still on both sites and always has low ownership because people are worried about his touches. However, when we are looking at the plays around him on both sites, there aren’t many running backs that have the upside that he does. He’s perfect for GPPs and our ladder system.
Alvin Kamara continues to rack up double-digit points on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If he is able to score a touchdown he will likely triple or even quadruple his value (salary multiplied by three or four). Mark Ingram also had a couple of fumbles in Week 8 that led to a shouting match between one of his coaches after the second fumble. Game theory for GPPs comes into play when we create our lineups, especially those for large field tournaments.
If we theorize that Ingram fumbles early in the game then there would be a shot that Kamara takes over as the lead dog in a more up-tempo pass-heavy offense. It isn’t like Drew Brees couldn’t handle that, it’s just that he hasn’t been asked to do it this season.
Adrian Peterson absolutely imploded many lineups in Week 7 after Carson Palmer left with an injury. In Week 9, a full two weeks removed and a bye week in between, AP gets to square off against the 49ers. The Cardinals have had two weeks to adjust and game plan for this matchup and AP is in a great bounce-back spot and likely will be owned at less than 10%.
*Our members have been on quite a tear in NFL and NBA DFS*
Wide Receiver
Sterling Shepard had received 21 receptions for 254 receiving yards and a touchdown in the first four games of the season. Most of that was accumulated with Brandon Marshall and Odell Beckham Jr. in and out of the lineup. With both of those wide receivers not available, Shepard and Evan Engram will be target hogs for Eli Manning.
Larry Fitzgerald had two games against the 49ers in 2016. In those two games, Fitzgerald finished with 26 targets for 18 receptions and 214 yards receiving with two touchdowns (both of those from Drew Stanton). Fitzgerald also scored in Week 4 against the 49ers finishing with 4 receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown. It’s safe to say they haven’t been able to slow him down or stop him at all over the last two seasons.
Fitzgerald will be owned in the single digit this week and has a great chance with Stanton to produce strong wide receiver one numbers. For DFS purposes, he checks all the boxes for a GPP option.
DeVante Parker was averaging six catches per game with Jay Cutler prior to his injury. Jay Cutler and Parker both have practiced in full all week and are on track to play in Week 9. In a matchup with the horrendous Oakland Raiders pass defense, a week after the coach called out his team and traded away Jay Ajayi, Paker and Cutler could come out swinging.
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