It seems like the edge that savvy players used to have is starting to dissipate. Newer players have much more material and teachings to learn from and the standard strategies we attacked contests with are all too common.
There is one way we can still hold onto that edge and that is by pivoting off higher owned players for similarly priced players that will be lower owned. If the chalky player duds and a large portion of the field take a big hit in their lineup while your under-owned pivot blows up, you’ll leap the field substantially. Let’s identify those possible GPP pivots and create the edge.
*Most statistics used in this article were acquired via our Research Station which covers a plethora of analytics and metrics used to identify trends and efficiency.
QB
The Tennessee Titans have given up the second most points to quarterbacks on both Fanduel and DraftKings. In Week 5, they are on the road and will be facing a team that is really struggling in every phase of the game, the Miami Dolphins. Jay Cutler will likely be off everyone’s radar, as he has not been able to manufacture points with the weapons around him thus far.
In Week 4, Cutler went 20-for-28 for 164 passing yards with zero touchdowns and an interception. Simply put, he was terrible. He uncharacteristically only threw one deep pass against the Saints. In Week 5, he gets to face the Titans defense that was just embarrassed by Deshaun Watson. The rookie quarterback threw for 283 yards and four passing touchdowns. He racked up another 24 yards rushing and a touchdown on the ground.
Things are not all bad for Cutler and he could bounce back in a big way against the Titans. Cutler is 12th in the league in deep ball passing attempts (16 attempts) despite only playing three games. His offensive line has the sixth best efficiency rating (93.2%) according to PlayerProfiler. Lastly, it will be the first game that the Dolphins will be playing in their home stadium.
Eli Manning is still carrying the stigma that he’s the worst quarterback to ever walk the planet earth. However, over his last two games, Eli is 65-for-96 with 654 yards passing and five passing touchdowns. He also chipped in a rushing touchdown in Week 4 but those can’t be counted on.
He Also will be playing his first home game since the Week 2 matchup against the Detroit Lions as the New York Giants are hosting the Los Angeles Chargers. The Giants are currently 3.5 point favorites and have an implied team total (ITT) of 24.00 points.
The Chargers have allowed the 15th highest average Fanduel points to quarterbacks (16.7 ppg) through the first four weeks of the NFL season and Manning has scored 24.64 and 27.72 over the past two weeks.
His recent success can be contributed to the Giants giving up on the run game and just going pass heavy. In the first two weeks of the season, Manning threw 70-total passing attempts. In the past two weeks of the season, Manning has thrown 96-total passing attempts.
Eli has a legitimate chance to 4x his $7,000 Fanduel salary and is an excellent pivot off Deshaun Watson, who will likely carry very high ownership in Week 5.
Game theory has put Dak Prescott squarely into GPP consideration in Week 5. The Packers might be without Ty Montgomery and recent reports show Davante Adams might be able to play on Sunday. The Packers could come out throwing the ball all over the football field and take the New York Giants approach of using the short passing game in place of the rushing attack.
If Aaron Rodgers comes out on fire there is a good chance that the Cowboys, who just suffered a tough loss to the Rams, could come out flat and have to play catch-up extremely early in the game. If this happens, Ezekiel Elliot, who likely will have heavy ownership in Week 5, will not be relied upon so heavily in the running game and Prescott will take the reigns of the offense and throw early and often.
By using Prescott we can effectively kill two birds with one stone. First off, by using Prescott we are leveraging the ownership that will be on Elliot. Secondly, we will have the lower owned quarterback (and cheaper) in this game which will give us a unique lineup.
Prescott has scored 17.12, 17.92, 22.92, and 23.58 Fanduel points in his first four starts of the season. His 89 rushing yards not only raises his floor but raises his scoring ceiling as well.
The Cowboys are also letting Dak throw a lot more in the red zone in 2017, as he currently is 13th in the NFL in red zone passing attempts (18 total). He also has connected on 44.4% of his deep passing attempts which means he has been highly accurate when he goes deep, albeit in a limited sample size (11 deep ball attempts).
RB
The Seattle Seahawks have allowed 18.2 ppg on DraftKings to opposing running backs (third worst) and 15.3 ppg on Fanduel (ninth worst) through the first four weeks of the season.
The Los Angeles Rams are firing on all cylinders and Todd Gurley is the focal point of the offense as he has 63 total touches over the past two games. Gurley is averaging 90.5 rushing yards per game (second) and 58.5 receiving yards per game (third). He’s caught 20 passes in the first four games (sixth most) and is averaging 6.25 targets per game. Gurley has the third most red zone touches (20), the most goal-line carries (8) and the most touchdowns in the NFL (8).
He will likely be under-owned in GPPs because of his perceived difficult matchup. Savvy DFS owners will be overweight on Gurley as he is underpriced and undervalued in Week 5.
Aaron Jones likely will have high ownership in Week 5 if Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams are both OUT on Sunday. Jones would be a three-down back and is facing the Dallas Cowboys, who have allowed the second most points to running backs on Fanduel (18.5 ppg).
Although his ownership will be high it might be a spot where we are going to want to eat the chalk and take a back locked into a full-time role in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.
Jones received four red zone touches and a goal-line carry, which he turned into a two-yard touchdown run when he took over the backfield duties for the Packers in Week 4.
When the chalk player is higher priced they’re much easier to fade because you can normally get a very talented player in a perceived sub-optimal game script who could easily outperform the chalk just because of their talent.
At $5,900 on Fanduel and $5,100 on DraftKings, the chalk is cheap and that’s when I don’t mind eating it. He will open up a lot of salary and should he be able to stay healthy he will likely play every snap that he can handle, barring a few substitutions to catch his breath.
Le’Veon Bell is the highest priced running back on both Fanduel and DraftKings in Week 5. This could lead to a lower ownership than we are used to seeing for him as many owners will gladly pay down and save a little bit of money on one of the uber-talented running backs, Kareem Hunt or Ezekiel Elliot.
Bell received 39 touches in Week 4 and although he will probably not see that type of workload again for the rest of the season, it doesn’t mean he can’t finish with the same type of production (186 total yards and two touchdowns).
Bell leads the league in carries (87) and red zone touches (21). The fact that he only has three touchdowns means he is due for some positive regression.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the 10th best matchup for running backs on Fanduel (15.3 ppg allowed to RBs). With a heavy workload and a ton of work in the red zone, Bell has a monster ceiling in Week 5.
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WR
DeVante Parker has secured 14 of 18 targets for 145 receiving yards and a touchdown over the past two games. He is becoming Cutler’s favorite target and has been his main deep threat on the outside. He makes for an excellent wide receiver option to stack with Jay Cutler against the Titans secondary.
Despite only playing in three games so far, Parker is ninth in the NFL with 198 air yards. In addition to running a deeper route tree, Cutler has delivered a catchable target on 89.0% of his 24 targets. Parker is showing elite high point skills in 2017, as his 72.7% contested catch rate on 11 total targets is the eighth-best rate in the NFL.
Pierre Garcon has received the 10th most targets (33) and has turned them into the 14th most receptions (20) in the NFL. His 193 air yards and 285 receiving yards rank him 11th and 12th respectively. He is showing fresh legs early in the season and has created 92 yards after the catch (14th best).
In Week 5, Garcon and the 49ers are playing his old team, the Indianapolis Colts. although this game has a low over/under and both teams have low implied team totals, the production is funneled through a few primary targets on both teams. Garcon is a nice price and could easily 3x his price tag.
Tyreek Hill is not just a gadget player. In 2017, Alex Smith has a 131.2 quarterback rating when targeting Hill. The blazing fast wide receiver has a 75% catch rate which is the 14th best rate in the NFL. His 288 receiving yards are the 11th best while his 138 yards after the catch are the third most, highlighting his run after the catch ability.
Hill could be matched up with Jonathan Joseph in Week 5, which is a matchup that he should be able to exploit. Joseph was the 94th ranked cornerback (out of 109) through the first four weeks of the season according to ProFootballFocus.
If Deshaun Watson and the Texans get out to an early lead there is a great chance that Alex Smith and the Chiefs will get things going through the air. The Texans and the Chiefs are both showing serious scoring potential over the last few weeks and I firmly believe this game will go over it’s 47.00 implied total, and both teams will easily clear their 23.5 ITTs.
DeAndre Hopkins will make an excellent game stack piece along with Deshaun Watson and the aforementioned Tyreek Hill. I release a stacking article every week that discusses my favorite stacks and how to use them. This was Week 4’s article.
Hopkins has a 38.6% target share which he has turned into a minimum of seven catches in each of the first four games. The 49 targets he has received are the most in the NFL and he hasn’t missed a single snap on the season. He’s been as consistent as they come and is a great cash game and GPP play.
His 10 receptions for 107 receiving yards and a touchdown might just be scratching the surface of his scoring potential. His target distance of 517 yards is the third most in the NFL and he doesn’t have a single drop in all of his 49 targets and 31 receptions (most in the NFL).
Jaron Brown is still minimum priced on Fanduel in Week 5. He has run 94.6% of the snaps this season and remains a true starter for the Arizona Cardinals even with John Brown and J.J. Nelson fully active in Week 4.
He has received 29 total targets in three games played which are 9.7 targets per game. He has a 21.5% target share including a 20.8% red zone target share. His 80.0% contested catch rate shows his improved ability to catch the ball in traffic and high point the football, just as he did on his Week 3 touchdown catch.
As the Cardinals are struggling the move the ball on the ground, Carson Palmer is throwing the ball 45.8 times per game, which is the highest per game average in the NFL. With Jaron Brown playing so many snaps and the Cardinals likely playing from behind, he has a great chance of easily paying off his low price point and makes for an excellent low owned wide receiver for GPPs.
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