NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS. The players listed in this column will likely be the core of my player pool each and every night this is published.
PG
D’ Angelo Russell exploded in the opening game against the pacers, and now without Jeremy Lin, he is locked into incredibly heavy minutes and usage. I don’t care who else is on the slate, opportunity cost be darned, I will be locking in Russell for the foreseeable future until his price catches up with his production. On DraftKings, he’s an excellent play in cash and GPP formats, as well as our ladder system.
Darren Collison is way too cheap on FanDuel ($5,600) for his current role in the offense. Collison looked excellent in the opener, compiling 11 assists and two steals in addition to his 21 points. He won’t shoot 9-for-12 very often but the peripheral stats should be there.
The Pacers have a 111.0 point implied team total and are 3.5 point underdogs to the Portland Trail Blazers. In a close and competitive game, Collison will likely play with a pretty high pace against Damian Lillard and friends. Collison looks even better Friday as the Pacers will be without Myles Turner, which likely will increase his usage as more offense will be needed to be created.
Elfrid Payton and that blob of “hair” on his head are in a superb matchup against the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets were one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA last season and look like they’ll be the same this year.
I love stacking point guards on FanDuel in the hopes that it’s a very high scoring and competitive game. This often can lead to point guards padding stats against one another, and that’s exactly what happened in the Nets first game between D. Russell and D. Collison.
Payton has an excellent opportunity because of the sloppy style of basketball the Nets play, which means he could rack up a ton of those 3.0 point steals. A Russell and Payton stack could prove to be fruitful. I’ll be sure to spread my ownership across these three point guards pretty heavily in the Domination Station.
SG
You’ll see a trend in my player pool as I’ll be attacking the Brooklyn Nets aggressively with the Orlando Magic starters. Terrence Ross is cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should be a great source of steals and three-pointers on Friday. I plan on rolling out the Magic onslaught in a large field GPP stacked with the Pacers under-priced scorers.
In the first game of the season, Victor Oladipo proved he will thrive as a ball handler who can fill up the stat sheet in multiple categories. He’s no longer standing around the three-point line waiting for Westbrook to kick the ball out to him for a wide-open look at a three. He’s going to be relied upon as a playmaker and a scorer.
The Portland at Pacers game has the highest total on the board (225.5 with a 3.5 point spread favoring the Blazers). The Pacers stack with the Magic stack will continue to unfold as this article continues.
Jaylen Brown is still a bargain on DraftKings, especially with the news that Marcus Smart is likely going to miss Friday’s game. Brown has taken 34 shots in the first two games of the season and will be relied upon to play heavy minutes and make plays on both ends of the court.
SF
Robert Covington is perfect on FanDuel for two reasons, his price and his ability to rack up steals. He’s also excellent for DraftKings because he shoots a lot of three-point attempts (7-for-11 in the opener).
He’s a mortal lock for me on both sites as he will play an important role in what Vegas projected to be an incredibly competitive game (217.0 total with the Sixers favored by 1.0 points).
Kelly Oubre Jr. will continue to play heavy minutes with Markieff Morris on the shelf. Jason Smith also suffered a shoulder injury in the second quarter which means even more run for Oubre Jr. as Otter Porter likely will shift over the PF and play a ton of minutes there tonight as the Wizards roll out a small ball lineup.
Oubre Jr. is one of the most athletic players in the NBA which means he will rack up steals and blocks whenever he gets locked into heavy minutes. He also is a spot up three point shooter and will take the majority of his shots from the outside. He’s the perfect type of play for GPPs but I would avoid his all or nothing style of basketball (3’s, steals, and blocks) in cash games.
T.J. Warren and the entire Pheonix Suns offense is in a great bounce-back spot as they are hosting the Lakers on Friday night. The Suns have the third highest implied team total (110.0 points) and are 3.0 favorites in the fourth highest total game of the night (218.5 points).
This game will be played at a pretty fast pace with a plethora of turnovers to go around. Warren is athletic enough to rack up the rebounds, blocks, and steals while contributing on the fast break.
Evan Fournier is another stackable option for our Orlando Magic onslaught (three or more players stacked from the same team), but I likely will have the least of him out of my Magic player pool. He’s very unreliable because he is very dependent on scoring the basketball. Shooters who don’t do much else are not my favorite types of targets for DFS. He should provide a healthy amount of threes against the Nets as the Magic are pretty good at getting up and down the court with a fairly young and athletic squad.
PF
Thaddeus Young is a mortal lock, specifically on FanDuel, because of his $6,300 price tag. He should pick up the slack down low against the Blazers with Myles Turner nursing a sore neck. Young has always been an excellent two-way player and could rack up five or more combined steals and blocks which would give him 15-plus points just from those two categories.
How does anybody not lock in Ben Simmons against Boston? Simmons did not disappoint in his debut against the Wizards. He had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds while chipping in 5 assists, and 3 combined blocks and steals across 35 minutes.
He’s locked into heavy minutes and should feast on the boards against the 4th worst rebounding team last season, the Boston Celtics. This game will be competitive and the Sixers crowd should be pretty excited in this one.
C
Nikola Vucevic is going to maul the Brooklyn Nets. Vuc’ is easily one of the most talented centers in the game offensively and has a superb matchup against Timofey Mozgov and Trevor Booker. Vuc’ should rack up double-digit rebounds with ease and could pace the Magic offense in points.
If Aaron Gordon is deemed inactive, I would make Vucevic a lock. As it stands right now, Gordon is a game-time decision which means Vucevic is my favorite center but not a lock.
Marcin Gortat is the guy I want to pay down for tonight at the center spot. He’s going to play heavy minutes without Markieff Morris in the lineup and will be relied upon to crash the boards with Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre at the SF/PF spots.
In the opening game against the Sixers, Gortat grabbed 17 rebounds and compiled three blocks. He’s a very underrated big man and when asked to be a bully he can do just that. Andre Drummond is a super rebounder and could limit the ceiling of Gortat so I will look to use Gortat in cash games more so than GPPs and our ladder system.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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