NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
*Edit* I had to post a picture of a member winning $53,000 from a couple nights ago further down the page. Huge congratulations to the newer second-month member!
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS. The players listed in this column will likely be the core of my player pool each and every night this is published.
I just want to make a quick mention that the Denver Nuggets are playing their fourth road game in six nights and the host, New York Knicks, are playing their third game in four nights. Both teams already play with slow pace as well. Two tired teams with a lot of travel (especially the Nuggets) playing in a slow-paced game is a stay away for me. Let the masses chase some of the high scores of Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic, and Kristaps Porzingas.
I am planting my flag on avoiding this game with tongue in cheek because if one or two of these studs are rested it will open up a ton of playing time for others on the team. If that happens, just like anything with NBA DFS, we will have to adapt quickly tonight. Having 19 staff members and over 1,000 members in our members only Slack channels will help with being alerted to lineup scratches and how to profit with the late-breaking news. New members are always stunned with how amazing Slack is (on top of the 25 weekly articles, 4 podcasts at 5,000 downloads each, analytics corner for different sports with all advanced metrics, and our industry best optimizer).
Okay, enough about how amazing this community is, let’s get to work (for real this time).
PG
Jrue Holiday looks like he is rounding into form as he’s scored 20 and 29 points over the past two games. He is starting to mesh well with Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, adding a nice outside shooting threat on the perimeter which helps with spacing. He’s also dishing out seven assists per game over the last three.
The New Orleans Pelicans have an implied total of 117.3 points which is the highest total on the entire slate. Holiday is priced fairly and offers significant upside.
Stephen Curry is on the second leg of a back to back as the Warriors travel to face the Clippers. The Warriors have a 113.0 implied total, second highest on the slate, and he’s a lock in cash games. It is their third game in four nights but it is there only away game, however it is on the second leg of a back to back which always makes for tough travel. If the Warriors start sluggish it might be hard for Curry to exceed value, as he has only done so one time this season at his $9,400 price tag on FanDuel.
Kyle Lowry is the top tournament point guard on the slate as his pricing leaves a ton of upside at that price. The Raptors have a decent 106.8 implied total and Lowry should be fresh as his last game was Friday, October 27th.
Lowry is averaging 0.93 FP/Min this season but has nudged that number over 1.00 in the past two games as he is starting to fill up the peripheral stats. If his shot starts falling and he ups his shot total he is going to score over 50 fantasy points and can win you the slate.
Goran Dragic is averaging 0.93 FP/Min and gets to face the Timberwolves, whose defense has looked incredibly susceptible this season. Dragic is fairly priced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. His usage rate sits at 24.2% but normally rises when his team is in a competitive game. He prefers to facilitate and does that very well when he isn’t needed to throw up 20 shot attempts, however, against the Timberwolves he will have to take on a large scoring responsibility. He has a strong ceiling and floor combination.
SG
Eric Gordon missed the last game with an illness, but the prior two games he shot a combined 40 field goal attempts with a jaw-dropping 31 of them being three-point attempts. His price has dropped on both sites and he has a great matchup against the 76ers, who he recently scored over 40 fantasy points against on both FanDuel and DraftKings on October 25th.
At the shooting guard position, I normally try to lock in guys that are going to take a ton of shot attempts and have a high usage. Gordon checks both of those boxes.
Klay Thompson is always the lowest owned Golden State Warrior but tonight he a great matchup. Locking in Gordon and Thompson will give you around 40 shot attempts combined with a chance at nearly 20 (or more) three-point attempts. They can both score in a hurry and are affordable at a very inconsistent ceiling.
DeMar DeRozan is a guy I don’t like to pay up for in recent years. However, he is filling up the peripheral stats a bit more to start the season which has raised his floor. Over the past three games, he has 12 total steals, which on FanDuel is an extra 36-points because they’re worth 3-points each.
The Raptors and Trail Blazers game could turn into a track meet fairly quickly and DeRozan would benefit greatly if this were to happen. He has the highest usage rate (27.2%) at the position and offers superb upside.
If paying down at the shooting guard position look no further than J.J. Redick, who missed last game with a back injury. If he plays he gets a fantastic matchup against the Houston Rockets. These two teams met on October 25th and Redick had his way with the defense. He scored a season-high 22 points and went 9-for-16 shooting and 3-for-8 deep, finishing with over 32 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
SF
Before we begin with the Small Forward position, let’s just give congratulations to a member, who in his second month with us, won $53,000 in the $4 Clutch Shot GPP on FanDuel. What an unbelievable win! He now will join the rest of our five six-digit winners in our HOF!! HINT HINT – CLICK THIS LINK TO VIEW THE WINNERS!
Trevor Ariza is purely a GPP play only, as he has huge swings in production and is pretty inconsistent from a fantasy standpoint. That said, the Rockets will need to rely on him hitting his shots from the outside, likely standing in the corner, while Gordon and Harden run the offense. He is locked into mid-30’s minutes and is at a reasonable price on both sites.
Maurice Harkless continues to play heavy minutes and although he isn’t racking up a ton of steals and blocks, he is showing off a newfound defensive prowess. He’s at the very least giving tremendous effort. He is averaging a block and a steal per game and a handful of rebounds. He doesn’t have the highest ceiling but if his shots fall he likely can hit value at a nice cheap price for cash games.
Danilo Gallinari continues to play incredibly heavy minutes but isn’t producing in the fantasy column yet. That is mostly due to his lack of steals, blocks, and his shot not falling. However, against the fast-paced Warriors, Gallinari has a chance to throw up a handful of extra shots and if they start falling he is a guy we have seen produce well into the 40’s fantasy points wise. He remains a GPP play only as he just hasn’t been reliable enough at his $6,200 price tag on FanDuel.
Robert Covington is always one of my favorite GPP plays and if Joel Embiid misses Monday’s game, Covington is a lock for me. If he gets hot he can score into the 50’s and can rack up steals and three’s quite quickly. He’s averaging 0.93 FP/Min and scored 37.7 fantasy points on FanDuel in the last game against the Rockets.
PF
Ben Simmons is power forward eligible on FanDuel and continues to score in bunches and fill up all five categories. If Joel Embiid misses this game he is an absolute lock for me in my favorite game to target on the slate.
Simmons has a 23.5% usage rate and is averaging 1.28 FP/Min. He scored over 44 fantasy points in the last game with the Rockets and without Embiid on the court that number could easily rise.
Blake Griffin is priced at value and continues to reach it by not exceed it. He’s a solid cash game play tonight but you likely didn’t need me to tell you that.
Anthony Davis continues to go wild every night that he makes it through the entire game. His 1.59 Fp/Min is the highest at the power forward position and he has a nice up-tempo matchup against the Orlando Magic. I can’t pull the trigger on playing him in cash at his elevated price point and will keep him to GPPs only.
Ryan Anderson, Dirk Nowitzki, and Al-Farouq Aminu continue to provide great cash game value. Anderson and Aminu can be targeted in game stacks for GPPs because they have the ability to outproduce their price tag. Nowitzki is cash game viable but has absolutely no ceiling anymore.
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C
There is really only one center I want to use on this slate and that’s Karl-Anthony Towns and specifically on FanDuel. Towns is under-priced right now and reminded everyone just how special he is. He’s locked into heavy minutes and the Heat are likely going to be without Hassan Whiteside once again, which means there won’t be a single player that can matchup with Towns.
His 23.4% usage rate has been on the rise since the start of the season and this seems like a matchup he should absolutely control from the beginning.
Enes Kanter is a target I like on DraftKings because he’s cheap and continues to produce. Yes, he’s on the Knicks which I said to be wary of, however, one of the games he only played 16 minutes so he should be okay. The Knicks are also at home for this back to back set which should help them a little, along with a short travel from Cleveland to NYC.
Kanter is averaging 1.22 FP/Min with a 19.8% usage rate. Lock and load this $6,000 center on DraftKings.
Clint Capela is another center I am targeting on DraftKings, and for GPPs I actually like using both Kanter and Capela at the center position and utility position. Capela has had his minutes reduced the last two games but continues to produce. Whether Joel Embiid plays or not it won’t matter for Capela, as the Sixers have been wretched against opposing centers this season.
Capela has a 1.47 FP/Min average and is facing a bottom five defense against big men. He should be able to rack up double-digit rebounds as both teams will be heaving three-pointers all game.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
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