Vegas Odds to the Right Defense

Welcome to the first week of the 2017 NFL season. This year the DFS Army has expanded so much my head is spinning. Part of that expansion will include even more content from yours truly. My plan is every Tuesday to put out a quick look at defenses. Wednesday should have out my Kicker’s Corner and kicker pod. Finally, I should have an SNF & MNF short slate write up to put out Saturdays.

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One of the tools we are going to use to help us pick out a solid defense is Vegas. We are going to be looking for teams that are favored to win, the larger the better. Teams that are favored to win produce more points. This is because teams that are behind late throw the ball more. When a team is throwing the ball more they are more likely to have turnovers, sacks, and give up def scores. We also want teams who are able to pressure the quarterback. This, when combined with teams that are favored, are just going to increase scores. When able to we want to take home teams that are favored as they have a slight edge.

Houston vs Jacksonville

Just using Vegas with a blind eye we know that both teams are going to be playing a low scoring game. From what we know about the offenses of both teams, we know there are a lot of questions. Both teams have QB questions which are something we love to focus on for DEF picks. My break down for this match would be Houston is cash and the Jags are GPP. Both have the chance to gain turnovers and both will be in a low scoring game. However, Vegas gives the win to Houston and Houston is the home team giving making them the safer play.

Final Call – Hou – Cash

– Jac – GPP

Buffalo vs NYJ

This game here is going to be your CHALK DEF of the week, but I am not 100% sold on them being the best DEF play. Buf is known for being a DEF team, and NYJ is currently known for being a mess. There is some discussion in Slack that show why it might be worth the fade of BUF Def,(for more on why they are not that lock play click here) but we will worry about that for GPP. I will say Vegas gives us the go ahead here with a low 40.5 O/U and BUF is a massive 9.5 favorite. I am going to also point out for cash games Buf will become so chalk that it won’t hurt you even if they do bust which could easily happen.

Final Call – Buf – Cash.

Pittsburgh vs Browns

Here we find another large favorite even if they are on the road. The Steelers are large favorites playing on the road, and with so few great defense at home, Pitt might be the play off the slate. The bright side is Browns have not shown us that anything has changed from last season for them. I like Pitt regardless of being on the road thanks to the match up. Pitt will be ahead almost this whole game and the Browns have a rookie starting. Pit might be the team of the week.

Final Call – Pitt – Cash, GPP

Carolina vs 49ers

Here we get another nice favorite, but again on the road and this time with a larger O/U. Carolina, however, is not off the charts as a team we can use. 49ers have a lot of new moving parts and even at home, they are not a team I am thrilled with. This is a great place to find a GPP play.

Final Call – Panthers – GPP

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Rams vs Colts

Here is a call where none of the boxes but being home come into play. The Rams are under a new coach but they still have a solid Def unit. The Colts are known for being a powerhouse offense…except that they will be missing Luck for the first game. Even if Luck somehow found his way into the lineup he hasn’t played a single snap in a game and he only started throwing a ball again a month ago. Rams play tough at home, and they play tough at the start of the season. If you need to save some money this is my pick.

Final Call – Rams – GPP, Cash.

Honorable Mentions

These are teams who could perform well, but I do not feel deserve a full write up on. Bengals, Buccaneers, Baltimore. Each of these teams is able to check boxes and the narrative is there to support your use of them.

Follow the Vegas Lines

I would like to take now to point out that it is Tuesday and a lot can happen when it comes to Vegas. As sharp money starts to flow the lines will change. If you do not want to keep up with the lines on your own join the DFS Army and get in Slack Chat where we will be talking regularly about the changes in lines. A great DFS player is one who adapts as new information comes along.

If you want to talk kickers or defenses hit me up on Twitter @dfsarmypvaaron or in Slack @pvaaron