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It is no secret that DFS players have been using the Vegas lines and ITT (Implied Team Totals) to begin their process of selection for quite some time now…and it makes perfect sense. After all, Vegas is eerily on point with the lines and totals they set on games, so it really makes you wonder if these guys have more psychic genes than the rest of us common folks.
As DFS tout companies have sprung up over the last few years, so have the projections and lineup optimizers. These are great, because (if you trust the company) you know that all sorts of advanced analytics are churning away in the background to give you the best possible allocation of your salary cap.
But no one ever thought to take these advanced analytics/projections to their bookies and sportsbooks, until now…
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CARDINALS -2 @ Lions, CARDINALS first-half (whenever line is available)
***Don’t mind OVER 48
David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Matthew Stafford, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick and all find themselves as some of the best value plays on the Week 1 slate. Because of that, I think this game could be the easiest script to predict.
The Cardinals vertical passing attack is always great for betting overs… big plays = big points. Defending the pass was a huge problem for the Lions last season as they allowed the highest completion percentage (72.7%) in NFL history, in addition to allowing the second-most TDs through the air and eighth-most yards per pass attempt. They were especially terrible defending slot receivers, and this is where Fitzgerald should be able to take full advantage of Quandre Diggs, who owns the worst coverage rating of any CB in Week 1.
Speaking of mismatches, we know that DJ is the best receiving (possibly, overall) back in the NFL and should have little resistance in racking up his usual massive workload. The Lions were the fourth-worst defense against RB reception efficiency last season and certainly won’t get off to a good start in that regard on Sunday.
The Cardinals led the league in sacks last season and allowed the fourth-fewest passing yards, so they should be able to feast against a Lions O-line that hasn’t improved at all. Seeing Stafford and the Lions two-headed receiving RB monster atop the value rankings leads me to believe the Cardinals will jump out to an early lead and those guys will get the majority of their fantasy points via check-downs in garbage time.
I’ll be the first to admit, I’m not a huge fan of betting overs in Lions games due to their innate ability to hold on to the ball for long stretches of time. However, we could see a defensive/special teams touchdown coming from the Cardinals and you hope that the Lions will speed things up if the game script goes according to plan.
The last time these two teams met was on October 11th, 2015, when the Cardinals defeated the Lions 42-17. Since 2012, the teams have met four times and scored at least 46 total points in three of those matchups.
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OVER 51, Seahawks @ Packers
When running a search query for 10 lineups with three unique players in the DFS Army Domination Station, Aaron Rodgers finds himself in all 10 calculations. A perfect 10-for-10 undoubtedly speaks heavy volumes considering the other fantastic matchups on Sunday’s slate; one of those matchups is the QB on the other side of the field, Russell Wilson, going up against a Packers secondary that couldn’t stop a bike chained to a tree last season.
Doug Baldwin is one of the top receivers according to our rankings, and it makes perfect sense. The Packers cornerbacks (Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins) that will be tasked with defending Baldwin in the slot are among some of the worst-graded in all of football.
When forecasting the Packers weapons, it looks as if things will be spread out amongst their talented core. Sneakily, we can give a look to Randall Cobb (also in the slot) who will be able to avoid the Seahawks better corners on the outside.
Lastly, the Packers defense is listed as one of the best $/PT options and that makes me believe they’ll have a defensive/special teams TD; at the very least, a couple of key turnovers to put Rodgers & Co. in great starting field position. The Seahawks O-line has been notoriously bad for a while now, and that’s why we have seen DangeRuss running around for his dear life at times.
The Packers are only favored by three in this game, and to me, that is the overwhelming factor in Vegas telling us to get ready for a shootout. I would have a much different feeling on the game if either side was favored by more, but Vegas is telling us they’re not sure which way to go by giving the Packers the benefit of the doubt for being at home.
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49ERS +5.5 (buy to +7) over Panthers
I expect a lot of raised eyebrows on this one, but the 49ers do have some things working in their favor. For one, we have seen plenty of visiting teams come to Levi’s Stadium and fall flat on their face since its inception. In fact, Cam Newton had the worst day of his life in this same venue during Super Bowl 50 a year and a half ago. He’ll face a Niners defense that will never be mistaken for that historic unit of the Broncos, but they are a hungry bunch and this is still an interesting narrative to attach to this game.
Perhaps the most underrated factor surrounding this game is the debut of 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan. This is not a guy that is in way over his head and we should see the 49ers play some inspired ball for their new leader (in what they hope) of the long-term.
Brian Hoyer takes over the reins for the Niners and we should expect Shanahan to keep him in a controlled offensive game plan that keeps the ball away from Cam & Co; even if that plan goes to shit, we have seen Hoyer produce great numbers in garbage time. In fact, Hoyer threw for over 300 yards in each of his four full starts (six appearances, he did have one mop-up game and another getting injured) with the lowly Bears last season in addition to throwing 6 TDs/0 INTs over that span. This Panthers secondary is an unintimidating one and Hoyer should be able to keep enough pace for the Niners to cover.
The DFS Army Domination Station wants to take 49ers skill players Carlos Hyde and Pierre Garcon out on a date this week because it lllllllllllllllloves them. Let’s start with Hyde, whose price on DraftKings is as comical as it gets, especially since he’ll be force-fed the ball enough times to pull a “Willie Beaman” at some point in the fourth quarter. Garcon, on the other hand, is going to become BFF with Hoyer immediately. I do, however, expect the Panthers to try and force Hoyer to throw the ball elsewhere later in this game after Garcon torches them. Keep in mind, Shanahan did an exceptional job using Julio Jones as a decoy in Atlanta and we can certainly see that reshaped in San Fran this season…starting on Sunday.
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DFS Army NFL Week 1 Content
DFS Army Domination Station Lineup Optimizer
Geek’s NFL DFS Vegas Lines Podcast for Fanduel and Draftkings Week 1
NFL DFS “The Wishbone” Lineup Advice and Strategy for Fanduel and Draftkings Week One
Attacking the Salary Discrepancies on Fanduel and Draftkings in Week 1
Selecting Defense on Fanduel and Draftkings
Kickers Corner – Selecting the Right NFL Kicker on Fanduel DFS
GPP Pivots on Fanduel and DraftKings for NFL Week 1