Searching For the Free Square
In the game of Bingo, every card gets an empty spot in the middle called the “Free Square”. Since it’s the middle square, the free square is essentially the ideal spot from which to build lines around. In DFS we define the Free Square as the player to build your line-ups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate. This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. We are going to be searching most often for one SP, one OF, and one IF. The type of player we are looking for that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot, The goal of this column is to use quantitative data to identify the free square for the days Daily Fantasy Baseball slate. Each slate we will take a deep look at three or four players which represent outsized value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square of the night.
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Recap
For our pitcher free square, we had Marcus Stroman who ended up with 22.10 DKFP which was right around 2.9x value! For our infielder free square, we had Mike Zunino who ended up with 32 DKFP which was good enough for 9.4x value! For our outfielder free square, we had Shin-Soo Choo who ended up with 7 DKFP which was good enough for right around 1.6x value.
Tonight
We have a shorter 8-game slate ahead of us for Thursday night. On the pitching side of things, we are led by Jose Berrios, Tanner Roark, and Brad Peacock. On the hitting side of things, the teams with the highest implied run totals are as follows: the New York Yankees, Cleveland Indians, and the Minnesota Twins. Let’s dive into the slate:
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Free Squares
- Josh Tomlin SP CLE ($9,000)
- Josh Tomlin and the Cleveland Indians will take on the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field tonight. The Indians are currently -215 and the Royals have an implied total sitting at right around 3.68 runs. Tomlin has had a decent year and he gets a chance to extend the Indians win streak with a favorable matchup against the Royals tonight. He has the following advanced stats on the season: .338 wOBA given up to righties, .335 wOBA given up to lefties, 18.1 K%, 2.6 BB%, .324 BABIP, 36.0 Hard%, 4.22 SIERA, and a 4.10 xFIP. He will face the Royals tonight who have been averaging right around 4.40 runs per game this season. They have the following ranks against right handed pitching on the season: 29th in BB%, 27th in K%, 20th in OPS, 24th in ISO, 22nd in wOBA, and 19th in wRC+. I really like Tomlin tonight as I don’t think he will have much of a problem keeping the Royals in check tonight. Look for him to exceed his value and make a great SP1 or SP2 tonight on Draftkings.
- Matt Holliday 1B NYY ($3,500)
- Matt Holliday and the New York Yankees will take on the Baltimore Orioles and pitcher Wade Miley tonight at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have an implied run total sitting at right around 5.54 runs. Holliday has had a decent season and draws a great matchup against Wade Miley tonight. He has the following advanced numbers vs. left handed pitchers this season: 15.1 BB%, 25.5 K%, .900 OPS, .231 ISO, .354 BABIP, .382 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and a 41.5 Hard%. He gets to go against Wade Miley who has the following numbers against right handed batters: 1.48 HR/9, 19.0 K%, 12.1 BB%, .339 BABIP, 4.68 xFIP, and a 32.4 Hard%. I love this matchup and price for Holliday tonight. Load him up in a Yankees stack or use him as a one off at first base.
- Nick Williams PHI OF ($3,100)
- Nick Williams and the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Miami Marlins and pitcher Jose Urena tonight at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies have an implied run total sitting at right around 4.55 runs. Williams has been a nice bright spot for the Phillies team this year and has a solid matchup at home tonight. He has the following numbers vs right handed pitching on the season: 6.6 BB%, 27.5 K%, .854 OPS, .215 ISO, .375 BABIP, .359 wOBA, 120 wRC+, and a 40.4 Hard%. He will face Jose Urena who has the following numbers vs. left handed batters on the season: 1.30 HR/9, 11.6 K%, 9.2 BB%, 6.31 xFIP, and a 32.6 Hard%. I love lefties against Urena and Williams is no exception. He makes a great one off and I don’t mind a mini stack of Phillies lefties tonight.
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Shorter slate tonight but still a pretty nice slate ahead of us for Thursday. The MLB season is winding down so let’s take full advantage of each slate. I hope we narrowed down a few places or players we can target tonight. We have tons of tools and content available at the DFS Army this year for MLB so don’t miss out on all of those opportunities to make some money. Click the link “DFS Army VIP Membership” and sign up and join the Army today! With my free square pick, I am going to go with Yankees infielder Matt Holliday tonight! Good luck Army!
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