GPP Stacks on Fanduel and Draftkings for Week 1 of NFL DFS

**Before we get started I just want to show you exactly what we have upcoming for the NFL season. Football is upon us and whether it’s season-long fantasy football or DFS, the staff here at DFS Army has you covered. If this link doesn’t make you so excited that you want to run through a brick wall then I don’t know what will. Here is what is in-store for the 2017 NFL season.

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Stacking has become second nature for a large portion of the DFS populous. It’s a very common strategy, especially in GPPs, to throw together a stack or two and hope that the roster correlation that you built into your lineup sets yourself apart from the field. It’s a great way to raise your overall ceiling and gain more exposure to certain players and teams that you are targeting.

Let’s discuss a few stacks that can raise your scoring ceiling and give you a chance to compete for the top heavy GPPs.

Derek Carr + Michael Crabtree + Delanie Walker

This first stack is a great large field GPP build. With this approach, I not only am getting a piece of a perceived shootout between the Raiders and Titans, but I am being contrarian with my approach.

If we stack Carr with Crabtree, who likely will be 10-15% lesser owned than Cooper, and add in Delanie Walker, we are really raising our roster ceiling. Our game theory would be that the home team, Tennessee Titans, are in a good spot to be playing with the lead, as Vegas set their implied team total (ITT) at 26.00 points. Home teams that are favored are generally the ideal place to look for a tight end.

If Delanie is able to score a touchdown and rack up a handful of catches and decent yardage, he not only will destroy his value but will likely be at a lower ownership than tight ends like Zach Ertz, Greg Olsen, and Jimmy Graham.

With the Titans playing ahead and the Raiders playing catch-up, Carr will have to open up the offense and that’s when you will see the Carr to Crabtree (or Cooper) stack begin to rack up points.

If you’re wondering why I am on Crabtree as a stackable target with Carr instead of Cooper, the answer is two fold. First off, Crabtree will carry lower ownership. Secondly, in 2016, Crabtree had an 80.0% contested catch rate, which was the 9th best average in the NFL. He finished the season with a 23.9% red zone target share (9th best in NFL) and 12 red zone receptions (7th best in the NFL).

He’s a good bet to score a touchdown if the Raiders are playing from behind.

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Carson Palmer + Larry Fitzgerald + Golden Tate

This is your standard QB+WR1+oWR1 (opposing WR1) stack that is used to maximize scoring potential if the game goes into a shootout. The more I look into this game the more I am falling in love with it. It should be lightly owned and is going under the radar in DFS circles.

The Cardinals opened the game as underdogs but are now favored on the road by – 1.50 points. Generally speaking, home favorited players are the most consistent followed by road favorite players. It is a little more specific for each position but that is the most general way to remember potentially solid and consistent targets.

With an ITT of 24.75 points, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball well on the Lions defense. In the 2016 season, the Lions gave up the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL. This bodes well for the Palmer to Fitzgerald connection.

In 2016, Larry finished with a 72.7% contested catch rate (23rd best) and only two drops the entire season. He finished with the 5th most red zone receptions (13) and had the 14th highest red zone target share rate (24.7% of all the red zone passes were thrown his way). He should be matched up with one of the worst slot cornerbacks in the NFL, Quandre Diggs. This is absolutely a match-up that Fitzgerald should be able to exploit.

If Arizona is able to jump out in front of the Lions then Matthew Stafford and friends will have to pick up the pace of their offense (which was bottom five in 2016), which could lead to more passing volume than normal. In 2015, the Cardinals blew out the Lions by 25 points and Golden Tate had 18 passes thrown his way. I don’t like to use old stats like that as a legitimate source of research, however, it was an excellent example of the type of game theory we are creating when making a stack like this.

If Palmer can hook up with Fitzgerald once or twice and Arizona jumps out to a nice lead, the Lions will be forced to throw often with Golden Tate being the primary beneficiary of the garbage time stat padding.

Russell Wilson + Doug Baldwin + Packers WR1/WR2/WR3

This game will carry some decent ownership, but our entire lineup doesn’t need to be one messy contrarian pile of players. Being slightly chalky in some areas, as long as we don’t go overboard, should have little effect on your ability to take down a GPP. For the DFS Army, where we teach a lot of our members to target those small field GPPs for a better probability of taking first place, a chalkier stack is a fantastic option. We can always be more contrarian in other ways and at other positions.

If the Packers are able to reach their ITT of 27.00 points, then the visiting Seahawks might have to open up their offense and throw the ball all over the field. I am not convinced that Seattle will be able to run the ball with success and I firmly believe they’ll effectively abandon the run quite early to match the Packers high scoring offense.

If this occurs, Doug Baldwin should be our primary target, closely followed by Jimmy Graham. In 2016, Doug Baldwin had 11 red zone receptions which were top 10 in the NFL. At 5’10” and 189 LBS, he isn’t your prototypical number one wide receiver for an offense. However, what he lacks in size he makes up for in efficiency.

Last season, Baldwin ran 56.1% of the snaps from the slot and finished with a 75.2% catch rate (4th best in NFL) and had just four drops. He had 2.03 points per target (Fanduel) and if he can reach double digit targets playing catch-up against the Packers, he should easily pay off his price on both Fanduel and Draftkings. He’s phenomenal target.

If the Packers go out ahead of the Seahawks I think it will happen via the passing attack. With so many receiving options for Aaron Rodgers it will be hard to stack him with anybody in particular, which means you can choose to go naked Aaron Rodgers (a phrase used when you use a QB without any stacked receiving options) or you can use his wide receivers as opposing targets to your team stack. This is what I want to do with Wilson and Baldwin.

Randall Cobb will likely carry the lowest ownership out of the three main receiving options for Aaron Rodgers. Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams will have tougher matchups on the outside while Randall Cobb will be working the middle of the field. The Seahawks have been susceptible in the middle of the field to slot receivers and tight ends over the past four or five years.

In 2016, Cobb ran 44.6% of his routes out of the slot. He offered a security blanket for Rodgers, as he had a phenomenal 1.2% drop rate (just one drop the entire season) and caught 71.4% of all catchable targets (14th best in the NFL). Surprisingly, the 5’10” wide receiver had 10 red zone receptions (10th best in the NFL).

He showed off his red zone prowess in the playoffs last season when the Packers faced the Giants. In that game, Cobb scored three touchdowns and finished with over 100 yards receiving. Throw this stack in every possible GPP format, as it offers a decent floor as well as an extremely high ceiling.

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