As we rev our engines up for the beginning of the NFL DFS season, let’s review the most important positions in fantasy football. The tips aren’t designed to be deep dives into stats. The tips will simply be quick-hitting reminders of the fundamentals with maybe a thing or two to think about dropped in. Follow me on Twitter @Choppodong for more conversation, or consider joining us in the DFS Army where we talk DFS 24/7. We purged over 18,000 messages between members last week to create space for the conversastions/coaching to continue. That’s not your average forum!!
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Quarterback
1- Efficiency means more than raw attempts. A QB that falls behind and just starts airing it out seems great on the surface, but your better scoring QBs control the passing game and are remarkably efficient. Stats like TD/game, Yds/game, and QBR are more indicative of an NFL DFS QB’s ability than completions/game, attempts/game, and even yards/attempt. Don’t fall for the trap stats.
2- Home QBs put up more points, traditionally, than road QBs. Add in being the favorite, and you have the perfect DFS storm. But, bear in mind, that even the home underdog typically outscores the road favorite QB. In other words, give more value to QBs playing on their own turf.
3- QB is your most consistent position in terms of fantasy scoring. Why? He touches the ball on every offensive play. He controls his destiny more than any other position. Due to this, QBs also allow us to save some salary, most times, and pay up in other spots where we need to buy production. Use this to your advantage and save money on QB more often than simply paying for the shiny Cadillac carrying the big brand name.
Running Back
1- Gameflow is your friend. Understand how to predict a game script by understanding Vegas. A “positive script” is one in which your running back is favored to be winning by a good margin. When teams are winning, they keep the clock moving, and that means running the ball. A “negative script” is one in which a team finds itself behind, nearly abandons the running game, and just lets the ball fly downfield in an attempt to play catch up. Focus on rostering RBs that are going to be featured heavily in their offenses, not the other way around.
2- Touches are important…..but so are touchdowns. Yes, when a RB carries the ball more often, he finds more opportunities to score for your NFL DFS team. However, we also want RBs that are being asked to score. I might not be able to predict those long breakaway runs, but I can predict which RB will be used near the goal line. Focus on those workhorse backs that will be the primary carrier in the redzone, more importantly, inside the 5 yard line.
3- Cash game running backs have three overwhelming traits. They are used on all 3 downs. They are favored by Vegas, usually by a comfortable margin. And, they are playing……you guessed it……..AT HOME!! Search for these backs on your initial lists Monday morning, and cut your player pool down tremendously.
Wide Receivers
1- Unlike QB, efficiency doesn’t mean as much at WR. Opportunity dominates. Your WR needs…..TARGETS!! The more the merrier. RedZone targets are a huge bonus, too.
2- Injuries can be ignored, or serious, depending on where we are talking on the body. I have learned not to worry much about knee or even hamstring injuries (if only listed as probable). However, I’ve also learned that just about any foot, ankle, or groin injury is pretty serious in NFL DFS. If you’ve ever tried to run with a pulled/strained groin, you know how impossible it is to give yourself a burst of speed. It’s just not happening. You can sort of go through the motions, but when you actually feel the need for speed, it’s just not there.
3- Garbage time really boosts a WR. Being down late, and being the primary receiver, can really add points to you late. Sure, Blake Bortles made a name for himself in garbage time, but not like Allen Robinson did. Most people don’t see the effect of garbage time doesn’t benefit the QB as much as it does the receiver. It’s worth more points to go 80 yds on a prevent defense for the receiver than the QB. It’s just that simple to prove.
Tight Ends
1- Like receivers, target a TE getting targets (yes, I chose those words intentionally). Some people think TEs are only used near the goal line. Not so. Gronk is used as a receiver. So, is Travis Kelce. Before his injuries in New Orleans, so was Jimmy Graham. Utilizing a TE receiving more than 6 or 7 targets a game is a major bonus, as it signifies total involvement in the offense. Give me the typical Red Zone targets, and I’m a fat cat at the position. I will pay up for a TE more often than a QB when the position is incredibly scarce and the TE is in a good matchup.
2- Look to Vegas. The higher the implied team total, the more likely your TE will be involved. This might not be a mind-blowing statement, but the more touchdowns your team is implied to score, the more points your TE is likely to score. He is more likely to be involved the closer you get to Red Zones, and that is universally where TEs accumulate points in bunches. The targets leading into the Red Zone are just a bonus that not every team gives out to their tight ends.
3- Not to contradict myself, but don’t necessarily pay up for a NFL DFS TE over a stud RB in a big game matchup. The TE position is inherently volatile. You can withstand a 0 or a 4 from a $4000 player much easier than an $8000 player. Being that their floor is so low week to week, TEs can be a great spot to save some cap space.
Timeout!!
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Defenses
1- One of my favorite spots to pay up is Defense. Why? The price gap just isn’t as large as other positions. Most defenses range only a couple thousand dollars, and people still love punting the defense. They feel the production is so random that they just can’t justify paying top dollar. Well, they are wrong. Your top defenses are usually rushing passers, creating havoc, and reaping the turnover benefits. They also find themselves ahead on the scoreboard, and the more a QB throws into them, the more opportunity they get to pick that ball off or grab a few more sacks.
2- Leaning on Vegas again helps us determine the viable defenses in NFL DFS. Home and away are not quite as important as big favorites. Again, this gets back to game script or game flow. Having that large lead late in the game means the underdog will wind up abandoning the run at some point and force the ball downfield trying to catch up on the scoreboard. Again, this pattern favors defenses by giving them more and more opportunities to score fantasy points.
3- For a more cash safe defense, we need to focus also on the opposing teams implied point total. The lower, the better. Honestly, this trend is also rather price independent. You can find heavy favorites facing low implied totals at the top and/or the bottom of the price range. However, I’m finding the prominent turnover machines usually sit higher in the salary rankings.
Kickers
1- This is another spot we don’t just “take the lowest priced kicker at home in a dome.” That’s really selling the position short, and it’s also kind of the lazy man’s way out. It should stand to reason we want kickers in high scoring games. Vegas gives us a game total, and we should be at the very least using that as a guide. Give me a kicker from a 50 point game over a 40 point game any day of the week……yes, and twice on Sunday.
2- We should also be looking to heavy favorites with high implied team totals in NFL DFS. Why? Well, game flow again. If our team has a big lead late in the game, we aren’t trying to score touchdowns as intensely. We are more than happy to grind up clock, march down the field, get into range, and take the 3 points. Conversely, if we are falling further behind, we are more inclined to go for it on 4th down on the 30 yard line because we need touchdowns and time is getting short. We want to win, so we abandon the kicking game, too.
3- Paying up at kicker is where you typically find the guys producing consistently. But, don’t be afraid to pay down when they are heavy favorites in good weather situations. Sometimes that $300 matters. Don’t often go bare minimum, though. There is a noticeable dropoff.
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Time Winds Down
Very simplistic, but a nice little refresher to hopefully get your mind right as we head into Week 1. I really hope this is a great NFL DFS year for everyone reading this. Well, as long as you aren’t in my contests. In that case, I hope you come in second.