Forslund’s MMA Full Mount – Draftkings Based Breakdown for UFC Mexico City

First off let me say I’m excited for the opportunity to break down MMA contests for the DFS Army team!  Many of you may recognize my name, I’ve been doing a podcast through the Daily MMA channel called the MMA Edge. You can follow me on twitter @football_nerd77 and DM any questions regarding the fights and how I use my bankroll on these cards on the VIP Slack Chat. Onto the breakdowns which I will be doing from the bottom to the top:

 

Rinaldi (-230) 9k vs Herrera (+190)

A lot of times I look to target the first fight, especially in GPP’s. They tend to be lower owned and often times carry big upside. I really like Rinaldi in this spot he has great upside and good cardio which could come into play with fights taking place at high altitudes. If using Herrera at all in would be very small exposure if you are playing 12 or more lineups. So again I will have more exposure to Rinaldi. 

 

Sanchez (-130) 8.1k vs Morales (+110) 8.1

 

Both these fighters are making their UFC debuts so I see this fight as strictly a GPP play. I really like the fact that Morales trains with Team Alpha Male so he should for sure be the better striker. Sanchez likes to fight off his back a lot so his upside is not the best. In GPP’s I will have heavier exposure to Morales with maybe a dart on Sanchez.

 

Quinonez (-255) 8.2k vs Rivas (+215) 8k

For whatever reason, the odds were priced more even when DK released prices. Quinonez offers the best odds value on the slate and I am pretty much locking him in my cash line-ups. Plus with how active he is I also like him as a GPP play. Not big on Rivas at all I could see if you wanted to throw him in a lineup. I will be fading him.

 Ortiz (-220) 8.8 vs Sandoval (+180) 7.4

I will keep this 1 simple I really like Ortiz in all formats. He has a safe floor so I like that for safety in my cash lineup.  He beings upside with his takedowns and  may be a good gpp play as well. I might have a few lineups with Sandoval when running more than 12 lineups to hedge some.

 

Hermansson (-255) vs Scott (+215) 7k

I don’t mind Hermansson in cash. You don’t need to force him in there but if your salary allows it then great. I don’t like him in gpps much at all because Scott is really hard to put away and I could see this fight going into 3rd or Dec. So I just don’t think Hermansson reaches value. I mean use him some just be cautious.

 

Perez (-115) 8.1 vs Soukhamthath (-105) 8.1

I think this fight looks like it could be low scoring overall. If you have a lineup and are forced to play 1 of them my preferred play is Perez. Neither of these guys generally chose to grapple so expect a striking battle. Those have the potential to be low scoring if one of the fighters doesn’t get the finish. This one is too close to call so its best to avoid it in cash. 

 

Alvey (-135) 8.4 vs Evans (+115) 7.8

I try to avoid using Alvey he always depends on a finish to score much on dk. I hate depending on that. I don’t mind Evans in cash as a higher priced punt. If he wins it will be by getting tds and out striking Alvey. Keep in mind that Alvey has excellent take down defense and Evans has looked like a shot fighter. Evans could also be considered as a final spot to round out your gpp lineups but his path to a finish is basically nill. Just limit your exposure to this fight and don’t go all in on it. 

 Bravo (-330) 9.2 vs Brandenay (+270) 7k

Yes, Bravo is the most expensive fighter on the card. While I don’t hate him in cash you are going to have to decide which fighters in that upper tier you want. I just don’t know if he will be in mine. I do like Bravo in gpps don’t go crazy with him but is worth some exposure when building more than 10 lineups. I don’t like Brandenay at all but if you want to throw 1 dart in gpps go for it. 

 Jouban (-165) 8.7 vs Price (+145) 7.5

This fight scares me in cash. Jouban has shown a bad chin at times. Which would move a lot of people onto Price. So while I like Price as a Gpp punt play. I like Jouban’s upside if his chin holds up. On the flipside, Price is coming off two wins which looks great on paper but in reality not so much. Hiw first win was against Brandon Thatch, one of the worst MMA fighters ever. In his second fight he was getting beaten handily until he got was some would call a lucky KO. Jouban is a savvy vet that has been through some wars with top notch fighters. My play out of the two is Jouban.

Grasso (-160) 8.3 vs Markos (+140) 7.9

I can see many not having much interest in this fight and I think you need some exposure to it. If Grasso can keep fight standing she is a better striker in my opinion. So I like her in cash and gpps. I will have some exposure to Markos as a hedge off Grasso. Not a fight I would have 100% exposure to. 

 

Moreno (-170) 8.5k vs Pettis (+150) 7.7k

First off in my cash lineups I am stacking this fight. I am not confident in 1 fighter to win fight but I know this fight will be racking up the points. If I am stacking a fight I look for both fighters to combine for between 125-150 pts which I can easily see happening. Now for gpps I will definitely have some lineups fading this fight altogether. Out of the two, I like Moreno a little more in GPP’s because he can score more points with his wrestling. I will also have some lineups with Pettis although I see him being a very popular play.  

 

Hope you enjoyed the write up look forward to meeting you all in MMA slack chat and Good Luck! 

 

Be sure to check out the Geek’s Vegas Lines MMA VIP Podcast with @ffootballgeek and myself!


JOIN THE DFS ARMY TODAY!

Do you want access to the most advanced MMA Daily Fantasy content in the industry? How about the chance to talk player picks and lineups with our MMA DFS Pros and like-minded players? DFS Army VIP Members get all of that and more for all sports. Go to DFS Army VIP Membership and join the Army today! Use Coupon Code “FORSLUND” and get 20% off your monthly subscription fee! You won’t find a better deal or a better DFS team to join!