Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
We have a very interesting 10 game slate on Draftkings and I think it is one that we can have a nice edge over the field if we do our research (or I do it for you) correctly. There are several pitchers who are unknown to the average DFS player who are starting on Saturday so it could yield a wide array of results.
- Pitching
Jackson Stephens (R) will be making his first start in MLB for the Cincinnati Reds at home against the Chicago Cubs. Vegas set the Cubs opening line at 5.8 runs which means they don’t have much faith in Stephens. In Triple-A, he had a 1.57 WHIP, 7.11 K/9 with a 7.3% SwStr% (swinging strike rate) and a 4.97 ERA. Nothing special and a guy who can’t strike anybody out usually doesn’t do that well in the Majors unless they have impeccable control which he does not.
Felix Jorge (R) for the Twins will be facing off with Luke Farrell (R) of the Royals in what will be their first MLB starts. Vegas has not set an opening line yet so it means they are likely digging into the numbers and figuring things out prior to setting an opening line.
Felix has never pitched above Double-A ball and although he’s done well at that level the big leagues are a different beast. However, he gets to face the weak-hitting Royals in a pitchers ballpark for his first start.
Luke Farrell has had a really good season in the Minors and currently holds a 1.19 WHIP and holding opposing batters to a .230 AVG and less than 1.00 HR/9. This should help him out against the Twins, although their power has all but disappeared in the month of June as they have one of the worst ISO ratings in MLB over the past two weeks.
I don’t really like either pitcher or either offense as far as DFS goes and see no reason trying to get cute with this game.
Paul Blackburn (R) of the Athletics will make his MLB debut at home against the Atlanta Braves. He is a former 1st round draft pick and has had success in the Minors at every level but has never been dominant. He is seemingly good enough for us to avoid the Braves bats and pitching in a terrible hitters park only solidifies the Braves fade. Vegas set Atlanta’s total at 4.2 runs at the opening.
There is legitimately one pitcher I want and feel confident about for the 10 game slate on Draftkings and that’s Chris Sale. He’s head and shoulders above every single option on the slate and it really isn’t even close. He will carry decent ownership and the only thing keeping him from being over 40% will probably be his price. I am not going to get cute and I will just be using him in 100% of my cash-games and at least half of my GPP’s.
- Stacks
My two favorite stacks are actually in the same game, the Cleveland Indians at the Detroit Tigers. There is a good chance that Friday’s starters, Josh Tomlin (R) vs. Anibal Sanchez (R), will start for the 1:10 pm ET game in Detroit. If so, fire up the bats for both teams.
The Indians have several hitters with excellent BvP’s and heat zones versus Anibal Sanchez. They also have been hitting the ball well and obliterating righties over the past month. Over that timeframe, Encarnacion has a .258 ISO and .414 wOBA, Ramirez has a .296 ISO and .456 wOBA, and my favorite play of the game Lonnie Chisenhall has a .265 ISO and .420 wOBA. I wasn’t kidding when I said they’ve been smashing righties.
The Tigers still hit the ball harder than any other team in MLB and that hard-hit rate spells trouble for Josh Tomlin. Over his past three starts, Tomlin has allowed opposing batters a 40% hard hit rate and 93 MPH exit velocity on all batted ball events. He’s given up at least one home run in eight of the last nine games and six total in the last three games.
That’s not good for Tomlin as the Tigers are loaded with hitters who rock right-handers. Against righties in the month of June, Alex Avila has a .279 ISO and .420 wOBA, Upton has a .273 ISO and a .377 wOBA, and Miggy Cabrera has a .240 ISO and a .362 wOBA.
The best stack not in the Indians and Tigers game has to be the Rays. They get to face the exhausted Orioles bullpen after they will likely blow through Dylan Bundy. My confidence level is high in this scenario because of how bad Bundy has been against left-handed bats. Against righties in the month of June, Bundy has a 9.1% strikeout rate with a 41.9% flyball rate.
The lefty bats for the Rays are all at the top of the lineup and should allow them to shake Bundy’s confidence quite early. Mallex Smith has a .339 wOBA and just happens to hit Bundy’s three most used pitches (fastball, slider, changeup) extremely well. Corey Dickerson isn’t hitting a lot of extra-base hits lately but he is getting on base at will. He has a .356 BABIP and .376 wOBA against righties this month and going into Friday night was 15-for-41 in his last 10 games. Lastly, Logan Morrison is smashing righties in June with a .382 ISO and .420 wOBA. He destroys Bundy’s two offspeed pitches (changeup and slider) and could possibly have a few at-bats with men on base and in scoring position.
There isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
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Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.
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