Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
On Saturday, there were plenty of great pitching options and only a few teams in good spots for hitting. Sunday seems to have the opposite trend. For this reason, we are going to focus on hitters more in this article to make sure we can have the edge on the field.
- Pitching
Rich Hill is another Dodger pitcher that I love to use when he’s on the mound. His price has steadily increased the entire season and on Draftkings he will cost you just under $12,000 to even roster him. That being said, on a slate where safe pitching options are seemingly unavailable, Hill offers some security with a ceiling.
If you don’t want to swallow that salary hit then use Rich Hill on Fanduel where he is a much more manageable $8,800. I am locking him my main lineup and I will lean heavily on him for many of my GPP lines. I rarely choose a pitcher with an enormous ceiling and a low floor and I don’t bother choosing pitchers with a solid floor but no upside. As I mentioned about Hill before, I make every attempt to take a pitcher who offers some security with a ceiling.
Hill seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses, as he has pitched seven innings in each of the last three games. He has seven or more strikeouts in his last four starts and hasn’t allowed more than four hits in nine of his last ten starts. In his last 26 innings pitched he’s also only given up five earned runs. He’s really in the zone.
The Marlins are middle of the road against lefties over the last three weeks and although they have some juice in the middle of the lineup they are built to hit righties much better than lefties. I don’t fear Miami and think Hill should be able to earn a fourth quality start in a row.
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- Stacks
*EDIT* I wrote this first part on Saturday about the Astros but wanted to leave it here for your research purposes. A lot of good information presented and relatable to their Sunday matchup against Kyle Gibson.
There is legitimately only one team I want to stack up with more than two hitters and that’s the Houston Astros. They have been so good for so long that it doesn’t even matter who the opposing pitcher is. That being said, they face Ervin Santana (R), who has given up multiple home runs in four of his last seven games. He pitches to contact and doesn’t strike out many batters. We could be on the brink of another explosion from the Astros considering that the Twins bullpen is one of the worst in all of baseball.
George Springer is the table setter for the Astros and he’s been on an absolute tear over the past month. For a closer look into his more recent production, and more specifically his production against righties, we will use his past ten games. Using those splits, he had a .553 wOBA, .423 ISO, 1.385 OPS and a .462 AVG.
Jose Altuve is another one of the Astors bats that are giving opposing pitchers nightmares. Using the same ten game sample against righties, Altuve had a .554 wOBA, .160 ISO, 1.333 OPS and a .560 AVG. He finished the first half of the season with three hits in the each of the final five games going into the break.
Carlos Correa always goes criminally under-owned and I never understand why but I am not complaining. I’ll continue to use him as he offers the highest upside at the short stop position. Using our previous splits, Correa had a .616 wOBA, .525 ISO, 1.533 OPS and a .475 AVG. He also belted six home runs in those final 10 games of the first half.
Our last Astro will be another under-owned player, Yulieski Gurriel. Using our splits, he went into the break with a .434 wOBA, .269 ISO, 1.038 OPS and a .385 AVG.
It’s mind boggling that there are four (and there were a few more including Reddick and Marwin) players on one team with such incredible stats using the same splits and sample size. Each and every one of them had the type of production that you look for across a 13 game slate and all four just happen to be in the same lineup. It’s no wonder why opposing pitchers of all skill levels have been getting demolished by this lineup.
I must admit, whenever I get a chance to stack the Cincinnati Reds at home I get a little giddy. The visiting Nationals will be sacrificing Tanner Roark on the mound and the Reds have a 4.9 run projection as their opening Vegas line. Roark has been getting blasted for the better part of two months and I can’t see much changing in this incredible hitters park. He has given up a .532 wOBA and .359 ISO to lefties over the past month of baseball and has a weak and feeble 9.3% strikeout rate against them in that timeframe.
Billy Hamilton hits much better against righties than he does against lefties where he is almost unusable. Whenever he gets on base he is a threat for multiple stolen bases and can quickly rack up the fantasy points for your team. Tanner has walked multiple batters in five of his last six starts and that only bodes well for Hamilton and the rest of the Reds.
Against righties, Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in all of baseball and has really showcased that over the past month. In the last four weeks, Votto has a .465 wOBA and .393 ISO against righties. He has an excellent strikeout rate (10.4%) and obliterates the fastball that Roark has thrown 58.09% of the time over the past month.
Scooter Gennett has video game type statistics against righties and has a .551 wOBA with a .482 ISO in the past month (65 at-bat sample size) and normally bats in the top half of the order when facing righties.
Lastly, one of my favorite DFS plays every single time the Reds are at home against a right-handed pitcher, Scott Schebler. He’s always owned in the single digits and has a .312 wOBA and a .250 ISO against righties in the past month. He’s always a swing away from putting one into the bleachers when facing a righty.
The Chicago Cubs have really let down the fantasy world and actual baseball world down for most of the season. Their offense isn’t even remotely close to what it was last season. That being said, they have a great matchup on Sunday and we can look to take advantage of it with two batters to create a nice mini-stack.
Ubaldo Jiminez will be on the mound for the Orioles and he has really been struggling lately. In the past month of baseball, he has allowed left-handed hitters to have a .434 wOBA and .383 ISO with a 42.9% flyball rate. The Cubs have two lefties with tremendous
The Cubs have two lefties with tremendous flyball rates against righties that match up very well in this game. Anthony Rizzo has a .316 wOBA and .213 ISO with a 41.2% flyball rate against righties over the past month. The other lefty is Jason Heyward, who likely will have sub 5% ownership as he bats down in the order and has been away from baseball for almost a month. In his last month being active, Heyward had a .319 wOBA and .182 ISO with a 41.2% flyball rate. He also obliterates the fastball and slider, Ubaldo’s two favorite pitches to throw against lefties (76.48% of the time).
Remember that there isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.
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