Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
On Saturday, there were plenty of great pitching options and only a few teams in good spots for hitting. Sunday seems to have the opposite trend. For this reason, we are going to focus on hitters more in this article to make sure we can have the edge on the field.
- Pitching
Rich Hill is another Dodger pitcher that I love to use when he’s on the mound. His price has steadily increased the entire season and on Draftkings but he is still decently priced on Fanduel. Hill offers some security with a ceiling, which is the ideal pairing I look for when selecting a pitcher. I rarely want to choose a pitcher that has one without the other.
Hill seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses, as he had pitched seven innings in each of the last three games going into his last start where he only pitched five innings. He has seven or more strikeouts in his last five starts and hasn’t allowed more than four hits in nine of his last ten starts. In his last 31 innings pitched he’s also only given up six earned runs. He’s really in the zone.
David Price is our second left-handed pitcher that looks to be in a good spot for the main slate. The Angels are bottom ten in most stats against lefties over the past four weeks. The return of Mike Trout certainly makes them much better but they still have some very weak hitters in that lineup.
In his last three starts, David has limited opposing hitters to a 29% hard hit rate and a 90 MPH exit velocity. He has thrown 0.9 MPH harder than his season average and increased his strike ratio over that span to 69%. He gets a lot of first pitch strikes which puts him ahead in the count and allows him to control the at-bat. He has scored 43 or more Fanduel points in three out of his last four starts including 55 and 58 point outings. Hes dialed in.
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- Stacks
The Miami Marlins are in an incredible spot against the right-handed pitcher, Robert Stephenson of the Cincinnati Reds. The Great American Smallpark is notorious for being a home run park. In a limited sample size, Robert has allowed opposing hitters from both sides of the plate to have over a .500 wOBA and .250 ISO. This is a recipe for disaster against one of the hottest teams in the league against righties over the past month. The Marlins have a ridiculous .271 ISO against righties during that time frame.
Over the last four weeks against righties, Giancarlo Stanton leads the Marlins with a .480 wOBA and .514 ISO over 78 at-bats. Justin Bour has a .208 ISO over his last 77 at-bats against righties and aside from putting on a phenomenal showdown with Aaron Judge in the home run derby, he makes a spectacular mini-stack option with Stanton.
The Houston Astros continue to be under-owned every single slate and I think it’s because they’re basically priced at their value. The difference is that most the other guys who are priced along side them have the exact same upside so it keeps their ownership down. What people are doing wrong, in my opinion, is not using the Astros instead because you have stacking options basically 7-8 batters deep with the Astros which offers serious flexibility when creating a lineup.
I am going to work backward here because of how happy I am with Colin Moran right now. The kid just hit an RBI triple in his first at-bat and I have 90% exposure. Enough bragging. He’s bare minimum on Fanduel and was an elite Triple-A hitter and hopefully will continue that success at the MLB level. I don’t care that he bats down in the order I am locking him in against the worlds worst pitching staff.
Evan Gattis will likely be starting and batting cleanup as he sat Friday night for Brian McCann. At the beginning of the season they had a legitamite timeshare based on splits but lately Gattis has been facing righties as well because he’s hitting the ball so well. Against righties this season, he has a .390 wOBA and .231 ISO, both of which are much higher than McCann’s .297 wOBA and .146 ISO. Gattis has 6 home runs in his last 11 games and hits in 14 of his last 15.
Jose Altuve is one of my favorite players in the league. He scores all the time because of his speed on the basepaths and can easily get you 12.5 points in one at bat, just as he did in his first at-bat Friday night. He had a single, stolen base, and was driven in to score all in the first inning. He has a .466 wOBA against righties over the past month and is an absolute lock.
Marwin Gonzalez moving to the short stop position is one of my favorite things in DFS history. He has been on fire over the past month and has moved up to the 5th spot in the batting order after the loss of Carlos Correa. He has a .418 wOBA and .264 ISO over the past month.
The Colorado Rockies are projected for a slate high, 6.4 runs, big surprise! They face Chad Kuhl (R) of the Pirates, who really struggles against lefties over the last two seasons. The Rockies have two lefties who I will be locking in on Saturday. Kuhl also throws the sinker 22% of the time over the past month and that pitch is notorious for getting pitchers into trouble in Colorado. It just doesn’t sink the same way it does everywhere else in the league as those routine flyballs will carry into the bleachers.
Charlie Blackmon has a .403 wOBA and .299 ISO over the past month against righties. He leads off and has fantastic power at the top of the order. He makes an excellent outfield mini-stack with Gerardo Parra (L). Parra has a ridiculous .460 wOBA and .368 ISO against righties over the past month and has been moved up to the cleanup spot in the batting order over the past seven games. He has multiple hits in 8 of his last 10 games including two home runs and four doubles. Lock him in.
Remember that there isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.