Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still have the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
This should be an incredibly interesting slate. I actually think there are quite a few traps that you’ll want to make sure you get our constant updates with analysis via Slack. Also look for constant updates to our Analytics Corner and Lineups Page with the trends and matchups.
- Pitching
Josh Tomlin makes it two days in a row with an Indians pitcher as my top cash arm of the day. It’s a mix of Tomlin starting to sharpen up and hone in on the strike zone and the White Sox just being absolutely pitiful at the plate. Let’s take a look at the numbers.
Over his last three starts, Tomlin has pitched 20.1 innings, struck out 17 batters, allowed only 15 baserunners, and given up 7 earned runs. Not exactly jaw dropping numbers but incredibly efficient. On Fanduel he has earned the quality start in all three games which are a nice four point bonus. Those three starts resulted in 43, 38 and 40 Fanduel point totals.
In the last seven days, the White Sox have accumulated 164 at-bats against right-handed pitchers. Over the course of those at-bats, they had a .285 wOBA (23rd out of 30), .166 ISO (15th), .652 OPS (23rd), .200 AVG (27th) and a 25.6% strike out rate (5th worst). I listed all of those numbers not to boggle your mind but to just show you they are doing poorly in basically any category you want me to research. Their ISO has been boosted by a few home runs in two separate games but other than that they have been a barren wasteland offensively as of late.
You might wonder how I can settle on Tomlin as my cash pitcher, but when I looked at the rest of the landscape none of the other pitchers left me feeling happy inside. Verlander faces the Astros who I refuse to pick on even if they’re missing a couple of their main bats. McCullers is out of sorts right now and faces the Tigers. Jacob Faria faces the Yankees who are waking up again and lastly, Drew Pomeranz faces a Royals team who is really hitting the ball well. I just don’t see anybody I love so it comes down to Tomlin being in good form and the White Sox just being terrible.
Join the DFS Army with my 20% off promo code: DONUTS
- Stacks
The Cleveland Indians are in a great spot Sunday as they face off against the talented, albeit struggling Carlos Rodon (L). They have an implied run total of 5.6 runs at the open and should have no problem filling the basepaths all day. Rodon has walked three or more batters in every single game he’s started this season. As a matter of fact, he has only thrown strikes 61% of the time this season and is even worse in the past three starts with a 58% strike ratio. He has also been hit incredibly hard in those three starts with a 38% hard hit rate by opposing batters.
Jose Ramirez looks like he’s going to go on another ridiculous hot streak again as he has four multi-hit games and has gone 12-for-37 since the All-Star break. He had four hits in Friday’s game and is one of the streakiest hitters in MLB. If he’s about to go on a hot streak I would rather be riding it rather than chasing it.
Francisco Lindor has a .491 wOBA and .107 ISO against lefties this month. He bats in the two hole and is in a prime spot to be driven in multiple times if he is able to continue to get on base.
Yan Gomes ownership is always pretty low because, well, he’s Yan Gomes. However, Yan has a .438 wOBA and .368 ISO against lefties this month (6-for-21) and is seeing the ball well lately against both righties and lefties.a
My last Indian is my favorite player on possibly the entire slate. He’s underpriced for how well he is hitting, he’s cheaper than he should be, and he’s always under-owned because he has been hitting sixth in the lineup. The man is none other than Carlos Santana. He has a .536 wOBA and .409 ISO against lefties this month (26 at-bats). He has four home runs over his last six games and is batting .338 for the month of July. He’s 14-for-37 in his last nine games and has an elevated exit velocity on all batted ball events since the All-Star break (+2 MPH).
Join the DFS Army with my 20% off promo code: “WIN” which will give you a one-week FREE trial
- Hitting
Justin Smoak has a juicy matchup against Jesse Chavez (R). Chavez has given up a .369 wOBA and .244 ISO to lefties over the past month. The Smoak Monster is a switch-hitter so he’ll face Chavez from the left side. Over the past month against righties, Smoak has a .404 wOBA and .316 ISO. He also hits four of the five pitches well that Chavez throws.
Scooter Gennett and Joey Votto have excellent splits in the matchup with Dan Straily (R). Over the past month, Straily has given up a .475 wOBA and .370 ISO to lefties. Scooter has a .511 wOBA and .364 ISO in 63 at-bats against righties in the past month. Votto has a .403 wOBA and .173 ISO against righties and is heating up over the last week. They make an excellent two player mini-stack.
Mike Napoli is buried in a loaded first base position but he has a tremendous matchup. He has a .440 wOBA and .524 ISO against lefties this month. His opponent, Wade Miley (L) has struggled against righties and has allowed opposing batters to hit for a .473 wOBA and .264 ISO in his last three starts.
Adam Jones and Jonathan Schoop make an excellent two player mini-stack on the Draftkings main slate. Martin Perez (L)has allowed a .407 wOBA and .214 ISO to righties this month and has a poor 5.2% strikeout rate. Jones has a .519 wOBA and .579 ISO and bats at the top of the hitting order. Schoop has a .403 wOBA and .316 ISO over the past month against lefties and bats third.
- Value
Wilmer Difo has had a fantastic July. He’s hitting well from both sides of the plate. The opposing pitcher, Kyle Freeland (L) is having a solid month as well but we need some 2k hitters to fit in some of the higher end bats and stacks we want to employ. Difo fits that build.
Howie Kendrick might be active for the Nats Sunday. He has a .424 wOBA and .135 ISO against lefties this season and could bat as high as second if they move Difo down.
Derek Fisher might leadoff today against Justin Verlander and while I don’t like the matchup that much I do like the discount price we have on Fisher and the batting order position as he will likely bat leadoff or second behind Reddick.
Remember that there isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you. I’ll just leave this LINK right here for you and if you want to join use promo DONUTS when you do, enjoy!