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Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Greenbrier picks review
Danny Lee – Cash (T9- 79 DK Points)
I thought Lee was the safest cash game play given his recent form. His price was also right in a weak field event. Lee performed solidly and came in with around 35% ownership in cash games. If you were a part of this group you were in luck and had a nice step up on the rest of the competition.
Tony Finau – All formats (T7 – 92 DK Points)
Finau came into the week as the chalk play in all formats and for good reason. Finau set up well for the course and the stats lined up extremely well. I felt despite the fact Finau would be chalk he was worth playing in GPP’s and a must own for cash. Finau finished in 7th with the 7th most fantasy points and was second among players costing over $9000.
Harris English – GPP (T29 – 66.5 DK Points)
English had been showing good form after a poor start to the year. I felt he was still slightly under the radar and would come in at low enough ownership with high enough upside to make him a viable play. English had right around 10% ownership across GPP’s, a little higher than I expected but still low enough he could differentiate your teams. English performed alright and finished in the middle of the pack of players who made the cut; nothing special but still was a part of teams for me that won some money.
Billy Hurley – GPP Punt (MC – 27 DK Points)
I chose Hurley because his salary was low enough ($6200) that he would hardly be looked at despite a good course history and good recent form considering the echelon of players Hurley is in. I felt he was underpriced and still do but Hurley missed the cut by 2. Next time avoid the double bogeys, Billy!
John Deere Classic course preview
The PGA Tour heads to Illinois for the John Deere Classic. We have seen weak fields the past two weeks and this week is no different. Well an event headlined by Bubba Watson and Daniel Berger may not have golf fans overly excited it gives us playing daily fantasy the same challenge as always.
TPC Deer Run is a par 71 that measures 7,268 yards. The course has some unique features that play into certain player’s games; course history has certainly shown to be a massive factor of success. The tournament features A LOT of short par fours, out of 11 par fours 8 are less than 450 yards with 4 of those being less than 400 yards. With these lengths and all three par fives being over 550 yards the course sets up for lots of wedge shots into the green. That’s why we have seen Spieth, Johson and Stricker continually do well at this event year after year (maybe the weak field helps them out too).
Off of the tee, the course is rather open so players do not necessarily have to be deadly accurate for tournament success; but power is not necessary for success here either. With short par fours, long par fives and a mixture of par threes this course is set up for players with good approach games, specifically players who are good with wedges.
As a result, I will be prioritizing Strokes Gained Approach and looking at players approaches from shorter distances. Specifically, I will be looking at approaches from within 150 yards. I will also be looking for birdie markers in both DraftKings and FanDuel formats. This course regularly sees the top players score around minus 20 so lots of fantasy points will be scored and finding the players who can get a few extra won’t hurt.
Picks
Daniel Berger – All formats – DK: $11300 FD: $9900
I try to avoid writing up the top players in any event because it’s usually pretty obvious and easy to find reasons to like them but I think Berger is in to good of a spot to not be discussed. I like Berger despite him being the highest price and I especially like him on FanDuel where he is easily rostered given the price structure. Berger is 1st on tour this season with approaches between 50-125 yards which he will have many chances at this week. Berger hasn’t performed as well in approaches between 125-150 yards but still has been much better than tour average at 79th and 85th between 150-175 yards.
What I really like about Berger is his mixture of approach game, putting and scoring. Berger ranks 24th on tour in stroked gained: putting and although it’s tough to rely on putting as an indicator of success good putters are more likely to have the rounds where they go off. Berger is also 15th on tour in birdie or better % but is number one within this field. In a tournament that has more birdies on average than any other on tour, I like the odds of the guy whose best in the field at getting birdies to score well.
You may not be able to fit him into DraftKings cash but he is a must play in FanDuel cash games and I will be rostering him in many GPP’s for the week.
Ben Martin – Cash – DK: $8300 FD: $6700
With seven straight made cuts on the PGA Tour, Ben Martin is reasonably priced on DraftKings for cash and extremely underpriced on Fanduel. Not only has Martin made seven straight cuts he also came fifth in this event last season. Martin has not been great off of the tee this season but is exceptional approaching the green, according to our VIP Spreadsheet he is third in the field in field adjusted strokes gained approaching the green.
Wesly Bryan – All Formats – DK:$7300 FD:$6800
After winning at RBC Heritage Bryan went cold missing three our of four cuts but has since rebounded with two straight made cuts and looks to have regained some of his form. This course fits Bryan’s game perfectly as we see his weaknesses minimized and his strengths as a golfer are needed to win here. Bryan is not great off of the tee, with little length and not much accuracy Bryan and his driver have not gotten along great. However, this course is all about the approach game where Bryan excels. From distances between 75-175 yards Bryan rates anywhere from 2nd on tour to 11th, in other words, he’s dialed in from the key approach range this week. Bryan also rates out well in our Domination Station lineup optimizer as the 6th best value per fantasy dollar.
Kelly Kraft – GPP – DK: $7700 FD: $6200
Kelly Kraft has been gaining an insane amount of strokes approaching the green in recent events. Our DFS Army VIP PGA Spreadsheet shows Kraft is gaining more than a stroke per round over anyone else in the field and more than two strokes on the field in this category. Kraft, however, is losing more than a stroke per round on the field putting. Because of this Kraft is really not viable in cash games but he is a great option in GPP’s as the putting can easily flip week to week.
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