Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
I also want to wish a Happy Father’s Day to all the Dad’s out there. Being a father is incredibly difficult but nothing is more rewarding. If you are a dad or dad to be I implore you to step away from the laptop, tablet, or phone (after you set your lineups) and don’t check until they are all in bed. Try to unplug and enjoy the most important thing in life, family.
Let’s go on with DFS talk.
- Main Slate Musings
We have a large double-digit sized main slate on both of the main DFS sites, Fanduel and Draftkings. There are seven teams projected by Vegas to score over 5.0 runs (Blue Jays, Dodgers, Cardinals, Orioles, Diamondbacks, Indians, Brewers) and several teams projected at 4.8-4.9 runs (Twins, Rays, Tigers, Marlins, Braves). This means that offensive options will be abundant and value should be available at multiple positions. The weather is warming up and we are already seeing the change in home run totals. It will be imperative that we land the right pitcher or two on this slate because selecting the right hitters won’t be nearly as difficult.
- Pitching
There is only one pitcher I will be rostering on Sunday and that is Robbie Ray. The Diamondbacks are in Philadelphia and Ray is just absolutely in the zone right now. Over the past three starts, opposing hitters have been limited to a 30% hard hit rate (HH) and an average exit velocity (aVE) of 87 MPH. He’s thrown 10, 11, and 12 strikeouts in each of his last three starts. Over his last five starts (37 innings pitched), he has allowed just one earned run (solo home run). Yes, you read that correctly. He also has given up no more than four hits in those five starts.
I don’t even need to break down the Philly hitters and his matchup because at this point it doesn’t matter. I am locking him in and grabbing as many of the value hitters as I can to make him fit. There are still plenty of players who are under-priced and will allow this type of lineup construction to work.
- Stacks
With all of these teams being projected for so many runs throwing together some solid stacks won’t be the hard part. The difficulty will be putting together the best one or two that outperform the rest of the stacks that most likely should have a good game.
I don’t care about ownership with my first stack because I think they are in an incredible spot. The Dodgers get to play in the Great American Smallpark against Bronson Arroyo. Over the past two games, Bronson has allowed 21 hits, 3 home runs, and 13 earned runs. In his last start, he was dinged up by the Padres for 13 hits and the Dodgers are a much better offense. It’s going to be a warm and humid day (80 degrees with 75% humidity) so the ball should carry in this home run friendly park. Cody Bellinger continues to swing the wood with authority and might never play a game the rest of the year without hitting a home run. Well at least this game, he might even pop two. I would look to build around him with Justin Turner and Joc Pederson. Turner has excellent reverse splits and Joc is on a four-game hitting streak with three home runs in the past six games. On top of that, he was batting fifth in the lineup on Saturday. If he’s up there again he’s a mortal lock.
The Mets didn’t show up in the run projection categories above but it doesn’t mean they aren’t in a good spot. Vegas has them projected for 4.7 runs and I actually think they’re the team I will be stacking with Robbie Ray as my ace. The Mets are cheaper than some of the other teams with enormous run projections and have an excellent matchup against Joe Ross (R) of the visiting Washington Nationals. Ross has given up 10 home runs in his last 42.5 innings pitched in the big leagues. He has nearly a 1.50 WHIP and over a 6.00 ERA across those innings. This season, he has been rocked in five of his last eight starts for at least five earned runs. The Nationals also have one of the worst bullpens in all of Major League Baseball. If the Mets are able to rough up Ross early then they should be able to tee off on the weak bullpen.
Two of my favorite plays on the entire slate will be Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda. I will do everything in my power to make sure they are building blocks, similar to Robbie Ray, and start each and every lineup with them slotted into position. They both smash right-handed pitching and have superb power. I can easily see two or three home runs between the two of them not only because of the terrific matchup but also because of the weather (79 degrees, 75% humid, 14 MPH wind out to left field). Their priced way too low on Fanduel and work perfectly with Robbie Ray as my core.
The Cardinals and the Orioles are taking turns destroying the other. Sunday will be the Cardinals’ turn to throw up double-digit runs on the scoreboard and they certainly have the matchup to do so. The weather should be prime for home runs and Ubaldo Jiminez (R) will be taking the mound for the Orioles. Time to fire up Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Jedd Gyorko, and Yadier Molina. All three have excellent splits against right-handed pitching and are slightly under-priced for their current performance level. Weather, matchup, and current form are all aligning for the Cardinals bats and they have the opportunity to have some payback for the beat down they received on Saturday.
Lastly, the Indians have a solid matchup against the Twins right-handed pitcher, Kyle Gibson. This will be their third game in two days as they played a doubleheader on Saturday. I am hoping the Indians rest a few players after playing so much baseball in such a short amount of time. A few times this has happened this season and when it does Lonnie Chisenhall and Bradley Zimmer are both moved up in the lineup. They both have tremendous splits against right-handed pitching. Against righties in 2017, Lonnie has a .333 wOBA and a 326 ISO. He has hit 7 HRs in just 95 at-bats against them. Bradley’s splits are just as good as he has a .398 wOBA and .302 ISO with 4 HR’s in just 53 at-bats. They are never owned more than 3-5% and if they’re up in the batting order with their lower price point they will be locked in my lineup as nice cheaper options to allow me to lock in Robbie Ray.
It’s going to be another wild slate with a lot of runs being scored and a ton of home runs. If you don’t go for the top pitcher on the slate I wouldn’t blame you for going with a value arm and then grab all the power bats and stacks. There isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
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Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.
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