Baseball on the weekends is glorious. As a family man, I don’t have the energy or the drive to have any fun of any kind by the time the weekend rolls around. I just want to be boring and lame and I am not ashamed to admit it. I am sure you have heard of the term “Weekend Warrior”. For me, it has a different meaning these days. Being able to juggle the demands of life throughout the week and still having the dedication to remain prosperous in MLB DFS is my battle. For my fellow dedicated DFS players, this article is for you.
- Main Slate Musings
The way the slates are split up with the contests available for each slate doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. That being said there are some excellent pitchers to choose from and a few really strong stacks for the 4:00 PM slate on Saturday. It isn’t that you won’t be able to find a good pitcher or a good stack, you definitely will be able to, the issue is making sure your pitcher and stack outscores the field. There are two ideal ways to approach this slate and I’ll make sure I touch on both of those for you in the analysis. Let’s get to work.
- Pitching
Corey Kluber has been nearly unhittable since he returned from the DL on June 1st. Over his four June starts, Kluber has pitched 28 innings, given up 16 hits and only five earned runs. He has had double-digit strikeouts in three of those four games and 39 in total. Opposing batters have a hard hit rate of 12% and have a batted ball distance of 179 feet with an 83 MPH exit velocity. Any pitcher in the league would lust after having just one of those statistics to be their own, nevermind having all three.
The Twins have been terrible against righties in the month of June. A more recent sample over the past 10 days (227 at-bats against righties), they have a .572 OPS (30th), .249 wOBA (30th), .132 ISO (29th), .180 AVG (29th), .205 BABIP (29th) and a 48 wRC+ (30th). Kluber should absolutely eat this team alive. He’s my top cash game pitcher and is a fine investment for GPP’s if you think you can construct a better lineup than the field.
The only other option I would go with would be Jacob Faria, the right-handed pitcher for the Rays. In his three starts as a Major League pitcher, he has thrown 19.2 innings and accumulated 22 strikeouts. He’s given up one earned run in each game and still hasn’t allowed a single home run. He has excellent control and nasty stuff. Opponents are struggling to get good wood on the ball as they have a weak 26% hard hit rate and 87 MPH exit velocity on all batted ball events.
The Orioles have been middle of the road against righties for the month of June (577 at-bats). They have a .778 OPS (15th), .186 ISO (16th), .332 ISO (16th) and a 23.1% strikeout rate. Like I said, they’ve been middle of the road. Faria hasn’t been figured out yet and although the Orioles have some solid power bats this might not be the day that a team finally gets to him. He’s definitely cash viable but not as safe as Kluber. He’s my main GPP pitcher and I am pretty confident in the team I can build around him because of his affordable price. I’ll worry about ownership at the hitter spots. I try not to get too cute with pitching.
- Stacks
It’s hard not to go back to the well with the Nationals at home against Homer Bailey on a hot day in D.C. They are a pretty solid stack and Vegas projects them to score 5.3 runs. I will not be going this route because I am worried about their ownership but if you do play cash your stack should start with the uber cheap and incredibly production Brian Goodwin. He’ll be highly owned because of his two home run night on Friday but that’s why he’s a great cash game play at such affordable pricing. I would enjoy the discount and use the extra salary to pay up for Bryce Harper who hasn’t had a big game in quite awhile. He wrecks right-handed pitching at home and the Nats could get to Homer Bailey in his first start of the season very quickly. Anthony Rendon would be my final play for the Nats and he could bat anywhere from 4th-6th depending on who’s active. If Adam Lind or Stephen Drew. Both are batting over .340 and are obliterating the ball against right-handed pitching. On DK a full five man stack would be a nice all or nothing approach for GPP’s.
In the opposite dugout I actually really like the Reds as an excellent GPP stack against the home pitcher, Joe Ross. The Nats pitcher has struggled this season and although he’s coming off a decent game he was still tagged for nine hits and a home run. The Nats are getting over 70% of the public bets and I am certain that this will be represented in the Nationals ownership in DFS. This means the Reds will be severely under-owned. Scooter Gennett, Joey Votto, and Scott Schebler are all left-handed hitters which Joe Ross has really struggled with this season. They are actually my favorite stack on the entire slate.
Dylan Bundy could have a really tough time with the Rays on Saturday. Over his last three starts, his pitch speed and strike ratio have both decreased and his opponent hit distance, hard hit rate, and exit velocity have all increased. This is a recipe for an utter disaster. He’s given up a home run in 10 of his last 11 starts with 13 total. He does a decent job limited the earned runs even though he’s struggling which would normally cap a ceiling for an opposing stack. However, the Orioles had to go to their bullpen in the third inning on Friday after Ubaldo Jiminez was yanked. Their bullpen gave up 10 more runs and could be taxed Saturday. I like Mallex Smith, Corey Dickerson, and Logan Morrison for the Rays. It’s my second all left-handed hitter stack I am targeting.
Last but certainly not least, the Cleveland Indians are projected to score 5.9 runs and have an excellent matchup against Kyle Gibson of the Minnesota Twins. Gibson has faced the Indians twice this season. In those 11.1 innings pitched, he has 6 K’s, 5 walks, 16 hits, 3 home runs, and 6 earned runs. They definitely have his number. The Indians will be the highest owned hitters of the entire slate because of their 5.9 runs projected by Vegas. If you go with Kluber you will struggle to create a stack with them and if you go with Faria you will have a very chalky lineup. They have bats up and down the lineup worth using but if I were to narrow my focus I would go with Kipnis, Encarnacion, Chisenhall, and Zimmer. Using Chisenhall and Zimmer could be what you need to separate yourself from the chalk build that will likely include Ramirez and Lindor.
There isn’t a wrong way or right way to construct a lineup until after the results are in. Whatever you do, just make sure you do it with sound research and analysis. Winning lineups may sometimes look like someone just threw darts at a board but nobody truly plays like that with money on the line. Game theory and research can be the best of friends for GPP’s.
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Good luck to all of my fellow weekend warriors! You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I love to interact with my followers and enjoy the sweat of a big night with you.
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