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Every week of the year the PGA Tour plays on a new course. There are some examples in other DFS Sports of environments impacting performance, such as Coors Field in Baseball; Golf, however, offers an entirely unique environment each and every week. This article will break down the week’s PGA course and attempt to find what skill sets are needed for success. This article will then combine the course breakdown with the DFS Army Domination Station and give a few players to target in both Cash Game and GPP formats. For more updates throughout the week follow me on twitter @_bschnarr
Last week’s picks
Charley Hoffman – Cash (T3 – 106.5 DK Points)
Hoffman was locked into my cash line-ups despite withdrawing from the pro-am due to sickness. Whatever was bothering him couldn’t have been too bad as Hoffman finished third in the tournament and compiled the second most DraftKings points. Hoffman rated extremely high on our Domination Station and he followed through with a great performance
Byeong Hun-An – All Formats (T66 – 56 DK Points)
Another week where An could not putt. With his finish An still was not hindering cash line-ups by making the cut and wouldn’t be leading any big GPP winning teams but also wasn’t the reason a line-up didn’t cash.
Trey Mullinax – GPP punt (MC – 28.5 DK Points)
Mullinax was priced low enough that many players do not even look in his price range when making teams. With good recent form, I thought he has a shot despite not lining up great for the course. Mullinax was on his way to the cut before putting two shots into the water on a par five; that’s fantasy golf for ya. Despite missing the cut I still like the pick here and think when you can get a player at around 5% ownership underpriced you should always be jumping on it.
Bubba Watson – GPP – (MC – 29.5 DK Points)
Everyone has their player that regardless of when they play them they miss the cut; for me that’s Bubba. I can never get this guy right and this week is another example of that. I am not even going to waste my time analyzing the pick just remember next time I say play Bubba ignore me.
Justin Thomas – All Formats – (MC – 19.5 DK Points)
I liked Thomas because he was more than $1000 less than the big three for the week and I felt he allowed me to create better-balanced teams. Thomas didn’t pan out despite course history and good form. Oh well onto the next week.
Quicken Loans Course Preview
The tour is heading back to TPC Potomac, a course that has not been played on tour since 2006. A lot has changed since then regarding the course as it has seen an entire redesign that took place in 2007. After 2007 the course has played host for two Web.com events in 2012 and 2013. A quick glance of those leaderboards shows a few names we’re familiar with including David Lingmerth, Luke List, and Kevin Kisner all towards the top of the leaderboard (Lingmerth actually won in 2012).
With different skill sets in the names jumping up let us look into the course and try to get a better idea of what player type will do well here. TPC Potomac is a 7,139-yard par 70. The par fives play at 560 and 619 yards, not exactly prime scoring distances. Three of the four par threes are between 200-225 yards so we can give a bump to players who perform well on par threes from this distance. The course features five par fours under 450 yards and one more at 452 yards so players who perform well on this range of hole can also see a bump.
We can also look at the Web.com scores to get a general sense of course difficulty. With winning scores of -8 and -7 and only a handful of players scoring under par for the week (12 in 2012, 10 in 2013) it looks like TPC Potomac may be a test for many. I generally give a bump to scrambling on tougher courses as it becomes critical to save pars.
With new courses where little information is available I try to simplify for the week and go back to stats that are indicators of success anywhere. I will be looking a lot at Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee to influence my player pool for the week.
Finally, this event is an invitational so we will only see a 120-player field. With perhaps the weakest field since the Puerto Rico Open and fewer golfers to choose from it won’t be shocking to see high ownership go to well-known guys with questionably low pricing. Just something to keep in mind while also remembering smaller field generally means higher 6/6% and should impact the way you construct your teams.
Quicken Loans Picks!
Justin Thomas – GPP – DK: $10900 FD: $9700
There are many things leading me to be back on Justin Thomas this week. He burned a large portion of the field last week which usually results in lower ownership. Thomas also posted on Instagram he is changing to newer irons this week, new clubs is another thing that often suppresses ownership a little bit. Looking at Thomas’s career, since winning on tour in 2015 has only missed back to back cuts once. Using our VIP Spreadsheet we can see Thomas second in field adjusted Shots Gained: Approach among salaries above $7500.
Brendan Steele – Cash – DK: $8900 FD: $8800
Brendan Steele is almost becoming a free square in cash formats and his ownership numbers support that. Last week he saw right around 60% ownership in the $5 double up and I would expect to see the same this week. With 21 straight made cuts stretching back to last year and two consecutive top 15 finishes. In cash, I say eat the chalk, if he misses cut team can still easily cash but if he continues to do what he does and you avoid him you’re at a big disadvantage. Steele also is gaining strokes in just about every metric we look at in the VIP Spreadsheet which you can see free this week by signing up for a free 7 day trial with the code WIN
Danny Lee – All formats – DK:$8200 FD:$7800
After a not so great start to the season, Danny Lee has been on fire as of late. Traditionally Lee’s struggles as a player have come from his short game where he regularly loses strokes to the field around the green. A combination of Lee scrambling better recently and simply hitting more greens has led to five straight made cuts and three finishes inside the top six in that span. In our VIP Spreadsheet, we can see Danny Lee is third in the entire field in field adjusted Greens in Regulation. As a guy who traditionally performs better to the field on par threes and fours then par fives I like Lee a lot this week.
Adam Hadwin – Cash – DK: $6900 FD: $7600
Hadwin has cooled off from his great form we saw earlier in the season but he still lines up great for the course and does so at an affordable price. Hadwin lines up well for the par 70 track and does so at a reasonable price on DraftKings. Comparing his Vegas odds to his price point in the VIP PGA Spreadsheet we can see Hadwin is either mispriced by DraftKings or Vegas and I think I know which one is wrong.
Nick Taylor – GPP Punt – DK: $6700 FD: $5400
Maybe it’s my Canadian bias coming through but here’s another Canadian that sets up for any par 70 course. For me, Taylor stands out to me in the range of players in the bottom few $100 of salary. Our VIP Spreadsheet shows Taylor gaining strokes to the field Tee-to-Green which is huge anytime you can get a punt play who is doing that. If I need to go low salary wise this week I have no issue filling out some line-ups with Taylor.
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