Welcome to the results for our #BankrollChallenge! If you follow any of my writing/coaching from the DFS Army, or follow me on Twitter, you will quickly see I’m a pretty simplistic guy. I focus on Bankroll Management, Contest Selection, and the fundamentals of constructing solid and competitive lineups. I believe the rest is left up to luck and skill will play out in the long run………a run that is much longer than any of the newer players can fathom.
I started the #BankrollChallenge because it’s a common theme people like to read. It seems people like following along when others share their triumphs and their perils. Well, I’m going to try and teach from my challenge, and today provides the perfect starting point. If you need a refresher on the format for the challenge, and the why behind it, read the original piece here.
Overall #BankrollChallenge Results
Not off to a great start yet. But, the beauty is having the bankroll to just ride it out…
I used an analogy yesterday with a member that I felt explained DFS so well I want to repeat it briefly here. Playing DFS, especially MLB, is like driving your car to work. You can go through all the same routines from where you buy your coffee to what time you leave your house, yet you still never know which traffic lights you will hit red and which will hit green. You sort of know, but you can never really be sure. Some days you hit a lot green. Others you hit a lot red. You can go through weeks and weeks feeling like you just can’t catch a break and hit them green. But, what are you doing differently? Nothing. What should you do differently? Most times, nothing. DFS MLB is the same situation. You wouldn’t quit your job because you hit a bunch of lights red for weeks would you? Then, why the hell are you quitting DFS for the same set of circumstances?
Most newer players don’t grasp how long “the long run” really is. DFS, in general, has so much variance in it that any edge a players has over the field is very small. The larger the contest, the smaller the edge. This leads to a lot of random outcomes doing the winning. The long run overcomes this, but it takes a long, long, really long time. In poker, we talk of 10,000 hands. Online, that takes a few weeks. Live, that takes years. DFS is very similar, if not worse. Newer players just don’t realize they can play for years and never know if they are truly profitable or not. It’s just the nature of the game.
Yesterday’s GPP
I’m on the left. The winner is on the right.
First, I went with James Paxton because I felt he was the only viable option for the 4 game After Hours slate. I did hedge a league with Newcomb, but still had some of the wrong bats. I want you to see a couple things if you can get a clear image.
That winning lineup is chalky as hell. Due to the cheap pitching, name brand bats were going to be easy to grab at will. Bellinger, Cano, Segura, Blackmon, and Pederson were all very highly owned. So was Posey and about any Dodger. I didnt play away from that specifically, though. I wanted to target SFG bats and run some ATL or SDP. I felt people would be all over Dodgers and provided a nice spot to go light on the blue. The Dodgers put up a couple bad games in a row and I took the chance they might be cooling off a little. That was the foundation of my build, not ownership.
The reason I point out the winning lineup, though, is the chalky nature of it. Chalk plays in big GPPs, too. You don’t have to go crazy thinking of ownership. The only thing that set the winner apart was taking some Philly bats. The rest was very obvious. In fact, I was lower owned across the board than the winners. But, I was wrong and they were right. Therefore, I didn’t cash and they did.
League Review
Using largely the same core, the leagues didn’t perform either…..even my Newcomb line. I’m just hitting a lot of red lights right now on the way to work.
What I may do as an exercise in bankroll management is drop down to the $2 Stolen Base until things swing back around a little. A common poker management trick was to drop a level when you lose 2 sessions in a row, and move up a level when you win 2 sessions in a row. I never really got on board with that concept because I used total bankroll as my guide. However, this might be fun to play with going forward. We can maybe learn that together.
I should add I don’t see myself dropping to the $1 level because those contests are always so large, I don’t feel I have a good shot at winning them and beating 10k people. I will prioritize staying in the 1k to 5k player range for my GPPs.