Really simple again today. I told you this was also more of a blog about where I’m going in my own DFS adventures.
Key #1 – Don’t freak out daily. This game of MLB has variance. I see it from newer members all the time. One day goes wrong and they abandon their entire system and change it all from front to back. Read this sentence again. If you were a coffee shop and had a few successful days. Would you abandon all your recipes after one or two people complain in the same day? Get a grip. Stay the course, or you are doomed to repeat a losing cycle over and over and over until you give up.
Key #2 – Find a system that works for you. I think this stems largely from Key #1 in that most people don’t have one. Well, fix that! Get one. Start with the same article everyday (hopefully, Chin Music) and then look at the same numbers everyday. As your research unveils key plays you like, write them down. Do virtually the same thing for a week or two and develop a routine. By establishing a routine for yourself, you establish a baseline for your research. Now, you can add this or remove that. But, not before. This is just another way of telling you to plant some roots of stability instead of constantly spinning your wheels and wondering why you never get anywhere. After all, baseball players show up to the park at the same time daily and go through the same steps daily. They might stretch, or hit the weights, or watch video. But, they do the same thing in the same order everyday. If you want to get good, you need to do the same thing with your DFS research.
Key #3 – Ever notice when you are running hot, you don’t even need to do much research? The plays just sort of jump off the page at you. Stacks wave green flags. Trap plays wave red flags. It’s really funny how clairvoyant one can be when running hot. Now, ever notice how a blind man sees better than you when you are in a slump? You can research until you go blind and still not get any better. We all go through these ups and downs. Being a successful DFS player is about how you handle these situations. And, of course, this goes back to Key #1…..don’t freak out daily! Personally, I’m in a mini-slump right now. It’s my first of the season. It happened right after I stepped up my play to a higher level of contest. I still go through my same routine, though. Why? Because it’s proven to work. Did the players get tougher just because I bumped things up? Not really. In fact, I’m seeing worse players than at the $1 level. It’s only a matter of time. It’s why I’ve built a bankroll to handle those swings. I’m testing myself, though, to see how much of this I can take. I don’t like losing……because I’m not used to it. I really don’t like losing at higher levels and larger amounts. But, the main thing didn’t change…….my research process that has produced winning weeks all but once all season long so far. I’m bound to cool off…..just sucks it happens everytime I jump up a couple levels. It’s as if a higher power is testing my resolve.
Key #4 – I tend to do more research in slumps than on heaters. I bet you do, too. But, that’s sort of fool’s folly, honestly. I looked back at the offenses I was on last night in particular (I played the Express slate only). CHC, HOU, TEX, MIL. I also looked at the winning lineups and who they were on. Guess who? CHC, HOU, MIL, TEX and a little KC. So, if the winners were on the same offenses I was on, why did i barely break 120 while they were hitting 190? Simple….I had the wrong bats. I focus on OPS and recency. They focused on brand names. Guess who went off last night? Brand names of sorts. I wouldn’t play some of those players the way they’d been running lately. They weren’t hitting themselves out of wet paper bags. But…..they did last night. And, some players were rewarded. All it served to tell me was how close I really was despite the scores. The pendulum will swing back my way. I just need to maintain the bankroll to wait it out.
Key #5 – I go through this blog/article from time to time to tell you guys I’m the same. I just write about it. It seems to help people. I KNOW it helps me. It’s almost cathartic. When I get a little “deeper” with some of these pieces, it undoubtedly speaks directly to a few of you. I’m not being condescending in the least and hope I don’t come off that way. I’m speaking to myself as much as I’m speaking to you.
Ok….let’s get that pendulum swinging back the other direction! Chin up, Chin Music, and rock out.